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The Florida Marlins have sent Matt Lindstrom to the Houston Astros for a couple of scrub minor leaguers. This almost guarantees that Leo Nunez will start the season as closer, but as his 5.17 FIP from last season shows, he’s simply a disaster waiting to happen. Keep tabs on who his setup man will be this spring, and make sure to have him on your team, at least until Nunez proves he can handle the role.

Meanwhile, some relievers are commanding big chunks of change on the open market. The Brewers signed LaTroy Hawkins to a 2 year, $7.5 million deal. Don’t let his 2.13 2009 ERA fool you. He’s not a realistic closing candidate going forward. Just look at his 6.39 K rate, and 3.97 FIP. He’s solid, but he’s being overpaid. Don’t think of him as a dominant middle reliever, and don’t expect him to pick up many saves.

Brandon Lyon is rumored to be looking for a similar deal, coming off a season with a 2.86 ERA. But he, much like Hawkins, doesn’t have the skills to close. His control took a major step back last year, and his FIP and xFIP both topped 4. He’s another solid reliever, but his fantasy relevance extends only to saves, and his grip on any closers role would be shaky at best.

Finally, the best reliever readily available at the Winter Meetings has to be Rafael Soriano. The Braves, who brought in Billy Wagner to close, are trying to move Soriano, who unexpectedly excepted arbitration a couple of days ago. He is an elite talent, with a 12.10 K rate last season and a 2.54 FIP. He’s in the prime of his career, and despite some significant injuries, he’s managed a career FIP of around 3.3 and a career K rate just under 10. This guy is the real deal, and could close for almost any team. Even if he ends up setting up, he’s a fantasy asset because of his Ks, ERA, and WHIP, and if that closer were to go down, he’d be a very good source for saves.

Mid-afternoon, news broke that the Baltimore Orioles had acquire Kevin Millwood and $3 million for Chris Ray and a PTBN. This move was obviously a great deal for Texas. While Chris Ray is of little value, they get $9 million of Millwood’s $12 million deal off the books, allowing them to sign Rich Harden latter in the day. I question this move a bit for the Orioles simply because of Millwood’s cost. Let’s be clear – his 2009 ERA of 3.67 was incredibly lucky, and his FIP 4.80 was horrible. But, as we pointed out going into last year, his 2008 2.55 K/BB rate and 4.02 FIP were both quite solid. Bill James projects him at a 4.37 ERA and 175 innings next year, which seems perfectly reasonable, and to be honest, the O’s aren’t going to find 5 starters who can give them 175 innings of league average performance. However, if they wanted to spend $9 million, they should have spent it on Harden, or Sheets, or Piniero, or…. I could go on. Millwood just isn’t worth the price. Fantasy wise, please ignore Kevin Millwood. He’s in the exact opposite situation he was in last year, when he had solid underlying numbers but horrible production. Now his production is starting to look good, driving up his price, but his FIP and K/BB rate simply don’t support his ERA. And Ray sucks, but I think that’s obvious at this point.

The Rangers then turned around and used that extra cash to sign injury-prone but highly talented starter Rich Harden. Harden struggled a bit last season, and as a flyball pitcher Texas may not be too kind to him. His stuff was still there though, and his 10.91 K rate and 3.70 xFIP show he is still pitching at a high level. If he can keep the home runs in check, and improve the control a bit, and most importantly, stay healthy, he could be an ace caliber starter. He’ll cost the Rangers $7.5 million in 2010, with a team option of $11.5 million for 2011. He’s worth the risk for them, and could be a very solid fantasy sleeper in 2010. Just don’t count on him to stay healthy.

According to multiple sources, including ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are in talks about a possible trade that would send Robinson Cano to the Dodgers.

Olney reports that the Yankees preferred package would include either Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley and assuming that offered is turned down they would focus their attention on outfielder Matt Kemp.

Early this week, there were rumors that the Yankees would swap Cano for Matt Kemp and Russell Martin, however those talks died down. If the Yankees want to make a serious move for those players together, I would assume an additional prospect or two would have to be added, probably of the caliber of a Philip Hughes or Ian Kennedy.

Even if the Yankees are unable to trade Cano to the Dodgers, it is highly likely they would find another team willing to pay big for the second basemen. Although Cano had a poor season in 2008, he was considered almost untouchable a year ago, even in talks for Johan Santana, because of his production early in his career and the length of time until arbitration. If the Yankees were to trade Cano it is likely that Orlando Hudson would be headed to New York. Olney reports that the Yankees have had “internal discussions” regarding Hudson, and that if Cano was traded he would be signed.

Robinson Cano’s struggles in 2008 were greatly documented by the New York media. Cano, who had hit .342 and .307 the previous two season with an OPS+  over 120 in both season, was expected by many to make a big leap in 2008. Not only did his average go down to .271 but his defense got progressively worse and  his OBP dropped to .305. His 08 OBP was lower than his average in 2007. Although there are many theories as to why Cano struggled in 2008, most people point to him missing Larry Bowa. Cano and Bowa had grown very close during the 2007 season and was missed by Cano last year. Not only is Bowa on the Dodgers, the team Cano is rumored to be headed to, but so is Joe Torre who was also instrumental in Cano’s success.  While Cano did struggle in 08 the Dodgers may be expecting him to turn it around with Torre and Bowa, something he may be able to do.

Of the potential packages coming back for the Yankees, the most impressive one is probably Matt Kemp and Russell Martin. Although it is unlikely the Yankees get this kind of package just for Cano, it is worth looking at as this deal could grow and both players could potentially end up on the Yankees during the 09 season. Matt Kemp is an impressive young outfielder with a large skill set who struggled last season when his playing time was reduced. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that Kemp can hit in the .300 range with a .375-.400 OBP and a high SLG, as he showed this skill set in the 2007 season. Kemp is 24 and only going to improve, and he fits right into the Yankees gapping whole in center field.

As for Russell Martin he has proven over the last few years to be one of the better catchers in baseball. Although his power decreased last season, he made significant strides in OBP while walking more and striking out less. He will be 26 by spring and should be entering the prime of his career. With Jorge Posada aging and his injuries piling up it makes sense that Martin would slide in at catcher and Posada would DH.

I doubt the Yankees are able to pull off both Martin and Kemp, and it seems far more likely that Matt Kemp would be in the trade than Russell Martin. But according to Buster Olney the Yankees would prefer a package that included either Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley. I doubt the Dodgers would be sending either of them away, however it is possible the Yankees could get something done that would include one of the young stud pitchers.

The Braves are looking to improve their rotation and Vazquez is a great place to start. Always underrated Vazquez consistently puts up one of the best K/BB rates in the league. 2008 was a down year for Javy, however his drop off was not nearly as sharp as it may seem. His K/9 was within the same range, dropping 2 points and his HR/9 also stayed about the same. The major concern was his increasing walk rate. Walk rate however is historically not the first skill to go though so I’m leaning towards some bad luck and an off year more than an actual drop off.

Jo Jo Reyes has showed no signs of having any major league value. Brent Lillibridge is a speedy minor leaguer but his inability to get on base will limit his major league impact. But Chicago isn’t getting a bad deal. Catching prospect Tyler Flowers dominated high A ball last year with a .920 OPS and 17 home runs, than made an even bigger splash at the Arizona Fall League leading the league in home runs with 12.

I think this trade makes sense for both sides. The Braves needed to improve their rotation this off season and this is a great start. The White Sox will lose one of their top pitchers, but Flowers is an amazing prospect who has demonstrated his ability at one of the highest levels of competition for a prospect, the AFL.

I think Vazquez gets a bump in fantasy value. Chicago isn’t a “hitters park,” but it’s less pitcher friendly than Atlanta. Flowers might not make an impact for your fantasy team yet, but in keeper or dynasty leagues he should be picked up when possible. His performance in the AFL makes it possible we could see an 09 impact.

St. Louis – Chris Carpenter (shoulder) will have a bullpen session Wednesday, but he continues to describe weakness around his shoulder.  With St. Louis’ playoffs hopes fading away in the 2008 season, if they cannot make a run, and if Carpenter does not feel 100% expect Carpenter to be shut down for the rest of the 2008 campaign.

Atlanta – Mark Kotsay has been traded to the Boston Red Sox, resulting in the Braves calling up Outfielder Josh Anderson.  Kotsay does not have enough fantasy value to be owned in many leagues, but if he is, give a look to Chris Dickerson or Nelson Cruz, both succeeding in their short-campaigns in the bigs after very successful minor league tenors.

Houston – Kazuo Matsui is expected to return from the DL on Monday after fielding grounders and hitting from a tee on Tuesday.  Matsui is not much more than an average fantasy player, he should be able to return and help your team with his solid .763 OPS.

Los Angeles – The Dodgers have recalled Blake Dewitt from AAA on Wednesday.  Although failing in his first attempt with the Dodgers this season (.688 OPS), he has succeeded in AAA with an OPS of .850. (Dewitt was 11-19 in his last 4 games with AAA Las Vegas including a 5-for-5 Sunday.

The Minnesota Twins have acquired “Every Day” Eddie Guardado from the Texas Rangers for minor league right handed pitcher Mark Hamburger. Guardado pitched for the Twins for a decade, closing from 2001 to 2003. He has been closing out games for the Rangers this year and will probably set up for Joe Nathon with Minnesota. Although he doesn’t have the kind of strikeout numbers you look for in a late inning reliever, he is a good option in holds leagues with his 3.98 tRA and only 3 home runs in 49 innings. The biggest question though is who is going to close in Texas.

The first, and best, choice is probably Frank Francisco. With 11.2 K/9, 3 times as many strikeouts as walks, and a tRA of 3.50, this trade must have been pretty easy for the Rangers to make. I would suggest picking him up in any league where you might need another reliever as even if he doesn’t close at first, he’s the only option I see in their bullpen holding the job long term.

In keeper leagues the question becomes, when CJ Wilson comes back next season does he get his job back? Francisco has the obvious strikeout upside to take the job and run with it and if he does that I really believe he could open 2009 as the Rangers closer.

Drew has historicly been underated as a fantasy option. In 2004, Drew hit .305 with a .436 OBP, .569 SLG, and 157 OPS+. He also hit 31 home runs and was 12 for 15 in stolen base attempts. Drew also hit well in 2005, with a .412, .520, and 145, however since then he has failed to get on base more than 40% of the time, or hit above 30 home runs. This year was looking difirent, untill this injury.

Terry Francona is still holding out hope that Drew will be back healthy and not need a DL stint, however given his injury history it is difficult to believe. For some replacement options, you might want to refer to Daniel’s article last week. Just a quick pick here might be Jim Edmonds if he is still available in your league.

- The San Diego Padres have traded Greg Madux to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Madux might have more run support in LA, however the park factors should sort of even everything out. The bottom line isif Greg Maddux is on your fantasy team, you are in trouble.

Dont be fooled though, this guy is unlikely to get the job done. So far this year he has struggled greatly posting an ERA over 5 and a 36/22 K/BB rate. Even before this season Ayala has had a very low K rate, something that has probably led to him never closing.

If the Wagner thing is long term and you have to pick someone up in the Mets bullpen Id look at Aaron Heilman. Heilman’s K/9 of 10 makes him one of the most dominate relievers in baseball. He does walk a few to many guys, but because of his K’s hes ok. I dont really like anyone in their bullpen but if I had to I’d go with Heilman.