In a stunning turn of events Monday night, 2008 Cy Young award winner Cliff Lee agreed to return to the Philadelphia Phillies, turning down higher offers from the two teams long believed to be the only contenders in the Lee sweepstakes. As fans in Philadelphia drool over a rotation led by possibly [...]]]>

Not a Yankee.

In a stunning turn of events Monday night, 2008 Cy Young award winner Cliff Lee agreed to return to the Philadelphia Phillies, turning down higher offers from the two teams long believed to be the only contenders in the Lee sweepstakes. As fans in Philadelphia drool over a rotation led by possibly the two best pitchers in all of baseball, fans in both Texas and New York are left wondering where they go now.

For the Yankees, this is nothing short of a disaster. Lee came within hours of pinstripes several months ago before David Adams injured ankle caused the Mariners to back out of a potential deal and landed Lee in Texas. Lee led Texas past the Yankees and into the World Series, and as he hit the open market, nearly everyone in baseball believed he would sign with New york.

The Yankees could enter 2011 with a rotation of CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, AJ Burnett, Ivan Nova, and Sergio Mitre, far from championship quality. But with upwards of 20 million dollars over the next six or seven years not commuted to Cliff Lee, the question remains: where do the Yankees go from here? How can they compete with the newly improved Boston Red Sox, and the Phillies in the National League?

It’s worth noting that this Yankees team, almost entirely as is right now, won 95 games last year. A similar team won the more than 100 games and a World Series in 2009, led by CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and a shaky back of the rotation. The Yankees have a true ace in Sabathia, an emerging front line starter in Hughes, and a massive question mark – albeit a very talented one in AJ Burnett.

The Yankees first priority at the moment is likely to re-sign Andy Pettitte. Should they bring back Pettitte, they’ll have retained just about every piece from the playoff 2010 team. While Andy is currently leaning towards retirement according to several sources, Cashman will likely go hard after Pettitte in the coming months. A rotation of Sabathia, Pettitte, Hughes, Burnett, and Nova, while far from ideal, wouldn’t look too shabby.

In any other off-season, simply retaining a 95-win team would be viewed as a success, especially with players such as Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, and Andy Pettitte hitting free agency. But the Red Sox improved their team greatly by landing Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, and the Phillies now look like the class of the National League with a rotation of Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt. Expectations were set very high for the Yankees heading into the winter meetings, with some sources even reporting the team would land both Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford. It didn’t work out that way.

If the Yankees want to improve their rotation, there are a few options still out there on the free agent market. Brandon Webb is the kind of player who could really help the Yankees. While health is a major concern – he’s thrown just 4 innings in the big leagues over the past two years – he finished first, second, and second in National League Cy Young voting in his last three healthy seasons. He could be had relatively cheep, and if he was even a shadow of his former self the Yankees could have a solid #2 starter to pair with CC Sabathia. If he truly returned to dominance, which isn’t impossible given his age, the Yankees would have the two aces they covet to go with a solid back of the rotation.

The Yankees aren’t really seen as players for Webb at the moment. A name they have been more connected to is Zack Greinke. While some are understandably skeptical about how Greinke would play in New York, the guy is 27 years old and clearly one of the five or ten best pitchers in baseball. He was the best pitcher in the league in 2009, and while his ERA spike last year, his underlying numbers indicate he was still one of the 10 or 15 best pitchers in the league. Unfortunately for the Yankees, Dayton Moore doesn’t seem to like what the Yankees have to offer, and Greinke would cost a lot. He’s a possibility, but a long shot at this point.

Beyond Greinke, there isn’t really another ace on the trading block. Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano, and Felix Hernandez aren’t going anywhere. Chris Carpenter might be a fit, but if the Cardinals sense they wont be able to re-sign Albert Pujols this coming winter, they’re much more likely to go all out in 2011. Carpenter is also rather old himself, and health is still somewhat of a concern. If the Yankees can’t land a #1 starter, they’ll probably look to acquire a #2 starter they can pair with Sabathia, someone who wont make headlines like Lee but who will help to solidify their rotation.

For this role, I think Wandy Rodriguez might be a good fit. He’s always been a bit under the radar, but the Astros are in full out rebuilding mode right now, and Wandy is on the wrong side of 30. He’s not a flashy name, and he’s not a #1 starter, but he’s a safer bet at the #2 spot than Hughes, Pettitte, or Burnett, and he’s probably a more realistic option than Greinke or Carpenter.

Another name to consider: Chad Billingsley. The Yankees have been attached to Billinsgley rumors for a few years now, thought nothing has ever come of them. Billingsley is still young and very talented, and he’s also a good #2 starter, a guy who could really help to solidify New York’s rotation and wouldn’t cost too much. Given the Dodgers ownership situation, and the rate at which the NL West has improved over the past year, they might be willing to move Billingsley for younger players, and the Yankees, with their depth of catching and pitching prospects, would be a natural fit.

At the end of the day, I expect the Yankees will be ok. They won 95 games last year, and rotation of CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Andy Pettitte was good enough to win the World Series in 2009. I expect Pettitte will be back next year, and that Cashman will make a move to bring in one more starting pitcher. Will the Yankees put together a super-rotation and take back the headlines from Boston? No. But come April, they’ll still be one of the most talented teams in baseball, and come October, they’ll still be right in the thick of things.

11:58 – Joel Sherman reporting Lee to Phillies is official.

11:56 - Lee to Phillies close to official.

11:55 – SI.COMs Jon Heyman reports Yankees are out of Cliff Lee sweepstakes.

11:49 - Nothing is official as of yet. A Fantasy Bullpen source is still confident that Lee to Philly [...]]]>

11:58 – Joel Sherman reporting Lee to Phillies is official.

11:56 - Lee to Phillies close to official.

11:55 – SI.COMs Jon Heyman reports Yankees are out of Cliff Lee sweepstakes.

11:49 - Nothing is official as of yet. A Fantasy Bullpen source is still confident that Lee to Philly is a “done deal,” with the conventional wisdom being that nothing is done yet, and that Lee has yet to make a decision, though he may be leaning towards the Phillies. Things should clear up on Tuesday. Or maybe not.

11:42 – Joel Sherman of the New York Post believes no deal has been reached, but that Lee will have to decide between his preferred team (the Phillies) and the team offering him the most money (the Yankees).

11:02 - A source in Philadelphia has indicated to Fantasy Bullpen that Cliff Lee is indeed heading to Philadelphia. This trade is far from official but rumors have been circulating for the past couple of hours. More information to come.

Lee will likely need to leave tens of millions of dollars over two years on the table to sign in Philly. The deal is rumored to be in the neighborhood of five years, 100 million dollars, far off from the seven year, 160 million dollar deal the Yankees offered Lee, and probably far less than what Texas has on the table. The Phillies traded Lee to the Seattle Mariners a year ago around this time.

Halladay had a Cinderella first season in Philadelphia, going 21-10 with a 2.44 [...]]]> In a move that surprised no one, Phillies pitcher Roy Halladay unanimously won his second career Cy Young award, his first in the National League, beating out Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright for the most prestigious prize in pitching.

Halladay had a Cinderella first season in Philadelphia, going 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA and 219 strikeouts, all among the best in the league. Halladay threw his first career perfect game on May 29th, and the second All-Time playoff no-hitter in the NLDS against Cincinnati.

The Phillies ace lead the league in complete games for the sixth time in his last eight seasons, approaching career bests in both wins and ERA, though falling short of his 22 win 2003 season.

That 2003 season was Halladay’s first Cy Young campaign. Halladay set a career low in ERA in 2005, when he was 28 years old.

Other contenders for the award included Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright, who finished second in 2009, Florida ace Josh Johnson, and Ubalod Jimenez, who appeared the overwhelming favorite for much of the first half of the season.

Jimenez faded down the stretch and Halladay finished strong, leading the league in wins, K/BB rate, innings, complete games, shutouts, and walk rate, finishing second in WHIP and strikeouts, and third in ERA.

This second Cy Young award puts Halladay in a select group of pitchers. Only two pitchers with multiple Cy Young awards have been eligible for the Hall of Fame and failed to gain entry, and with three 20 win seasons, a perfect game, and a playoff no-hitter, Halladay looks like a near lock.

At 33 years old, Halladay is among the leagues best pitchers, and seems to have a lot left in the tank. This past year was arguably Hallday’s best, and over the past four years he has finished third, fifth, second, and fifth in Cy Young voting. Only time will tell if he can repeat this incredible season, but I wouldn’t bet against him.

It’s probably fair to say Cliff Lee struggled down the stretch in 2010. While his bloated ERA and sub-.500 winning percentage with Texas were certainly not all his fault, his Cy Young season quickly evaporated in the Texas heat after a mid-season trade landed him in Arlington. Yet here we are in [...]]]>

This guy won someone their league in 2008

It’s probably fair to say Cliff Lee struggled down the stretch in 2010. While his bloated ERA and sub-.500 winning percentage with Texas were certainly not all his fault, his Cy Young season quickly evaporated in the Texas heat after a mid-season trade landed him in Arlington. Yet here we are in October, and Cliff Lee is again dominating hitters like few in post-season history.

Tuesday night, for the fourth time in seven October starts, Cliff Lee went 7+ innings, struck out 10+ batters, and didn’t surrender a walk. In the 2,545 post-season games not started by Cliff Lee, this has occurred exactly three times. Translation: Cliff Lee is a pretty good pitcher.

Assuming Lee’s dominance continues – and remembering how much a good playoff run can pad a contract – Lee is likely looking at a massive deal this winter. The obvious candidate for Lee’s services is the New York Yankees, and with Texas’ new TV contract, they too might have a shot.

But if Lee can secure an offer remotely close to what he’d be getting in New York or Arlington with a National League team, should Lee think twice? Maybe.

Continue at BleacherReport.com.

Not since 1967 has anyone led either Major League in home runs, RBI, and batting average. [...]]]> For the first time in many years, we have a Triple Crown race in Major League Baseball. Not one, but two players are within striking distance of one of the most elusive achievements in all of sports.

Albert Pujols could become the first player since 1937 to win the NL Triple Crown.

Not since 1967 has anyone led either Major League in home runs, RBI, and batting average. Not since 1937 has a player done so in the National League. Yet with August winding down and the divisional races heating up, Albert Pujols ranks first in home runs and RBI, third in batting average, just six points behind leader Joey Votto, who also ranks second in home runs, just three back of Pujols, and second in RBI, again, only three behind Pujols.

For Votto, this is a career year. At just 26, he has plenty of time left to show that 2010 was not a fluke, and that he belongs among the games elite. But as good as he was the past couple of years, he’s really put things together this season and should he win the Triple Crown it would simply top off a breakthrough season for the Red slugger.

On the flip side, there is no doubt that Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball. He’s had many great season before, and should he pull off the Triple Crown, he’s all but guaranteed to become the second player in baseball history with four MVP awards. He’d also become the second player in baseball history to win three such awards in a row, following only Barry Bonds in both instances. But what’s so incredible about this season, and about Pujols, is that 2010 might just be a bellow average year by Phat Albert’s standards.

Let’s take a step back, and look at Pujols’ numbers as they appeared on July 31st, less than a month ago. Albert was hitting .299 on the season with a .399 OBP, a .551 SLG, and an OPS of .950. This would certainly be considered a great season for just about anyone. But for Pujols, a .950 OPS would represent a career low, as would the .299 batting average, 15 points lower than in any season of his career, and the .551 SLG, 11 points lower than in any season of his career. With two months to go in the season, Albert had just 23 home runs.

The Machine flipped a switch in August, and is no longer in danger of having one of his worst seasons. Over the past month, he’s hit .411 with 11 home runs, 22 RBI, and a 1.336 OPS. For the first time since April, Pujols batted over .300 for a month. It was also the first time since April his monthly OPS topped .950. One big month has taken Pujols from a career-low year to the strongest Triple Crown candidate we’ve had in decades.

But what about his numbers as of today? Pujols is hitting .320 with 35 home runs and an OPS of 1.022. He leads his league in hits, runs, home runs, RBI, and SLG, he’s second in  OBP and OPS, third in SLG. A great season by any measure, sure. But one of his best? Hardly. This is Pujols 10th season in the Major Leagues. His 1.022 OPS would rank seventh best in his career, his second worst OPS since 2002, his worst over that stretch coming in an injury plagued 2007. His 172 OPS+ would be tied for fifth best in his career.

His 2010 OBP and 2010 SLG both rank as the third worst of his career, his OBP at it’s lowest level since 2002. His average is the second worst of his career, only six points above his career-low .314 in 2002. 2010 is also shaping up to be a middle of the pack year for Pujols in the power department. He’s on pace right now to end up in the low-40s in home runs. Not really a down year for the Cardinals slugger, but certainly not-off the charts.

This has been an incredible season to be a baseball fan. We’ve seen five (six) no-hitters, two (three) perfect games, and cast of rookies that’s unmatched in recent memory. But this is something truly unique. We have a player so incredibly talented that, in a year that arguably ranks as bellow average for his career, he has a chance to win the first batting Triple Crown in more than four decades, the first in his league in more than 70 years.

Romero, the teams first round pick in 2005, has a 3.53 ERA and 3.40 FIP on the season. Not much of a strikeout [...]]]> The Blue Jays on Saturday signed 25-year-old former top-10 pick Ricky Romero to a five year, $30.1 million contract that will keep him signed with the team through 2015.

Romero, the teams first round pick in 2005, has a 3.53 ERA and 3.40 FIP on the season. Not much of a strikeout pitcher in the minor leagues, he’s really refined his stuff in the Majors, and thus far has a 7.76 strikeout rate on the season. He’s also a groundball pitcher (54% GB-rate both this year and last) and while his control is still a bit shaky, it’s improved over the past year and is currently no worse than average. Overall, he’s got a great skill set and at just 25 he still has room to grow by improving his command, and becoming the ace the Blue Jays hoped he could be when they selected him sixth overall.

Let’s break the deal down.

Right off the bat, the Jays will be giving Romero a $1.25 million signing bonus. In 2011, Romero will make $750K, a few thousand more than he would have had he not signed the deal, but nothing major. This is his final pre-arbitration year, and the Jays aren’t paying much for it.

Had Romero not signed this deal, he would have gone through arbitration in 2012, 2013, and 2014. Now, the Blue Jays have him under control and will pay him an average of $6.7 million over the three year stretch. Even if Romero simply continues to pitch at the level he has, he’ll be well worth the money.

The best part about this deal from the Jays perspective is that they now control one or two of Romero’s free agent years. In 2015, Romero will be right in the middle of his prime at 30 years old. The Jays have him locked up at $7.5 million for the 2015 season, and can exercise a $13.1 million option for 2016. Should Romero get hurt, or should his performance suffer, they can buy out the 2016 season for just $600K.

Romero gets a great deal of financial security out of this deal, and while it would be nice to hit the free agent market at 29 years old, he’s now guaranteed $30+ million over the next five seasons. This is certainly a good deal from his perspective.

I also like this deal for the Blue Jays. Romero is a very talented pitcher, and he’s only getting better. If he develops into the front-line starter he seems capable of becoming, having his arbitration years control could be huge in the Blue Jays rebuilding efforts, and keeping him under contract for two prime-age free agent years is also a major plus.

The Baltimore Orioles have placed Brian Roberts on the DL, retroactive to Friday, with a strained abdomen. Roberts has been dealing with pain from a herniated disk since [...]]]> A day into the second week of the 2010 Major League season, and several teams are dealing with serious injuries in their middle infield.

The Baltimore Orioles have placed Brian Roberts on the DL, retroactive to Friday, with a strained abdomen. Roberts has been dealing with pain from a herniated disk since the spring, an injury he aggravated sliding into second base Friday. While an MRI revealed no additional structural damage, Roberts was given his second epidural shot on Monday and is clearly in significant pain. This injury will keep Roberts out through April at the very least, and could potentially affect his ability to play, and perform at a high level for the rest of the season. If you own Roberts, you should probably look for a semi-long term solution if you can. While Julo Lugo will take most of Roberts playing time, he’s not an option in mixed leagues.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have placed their second baseman Aaron Hill on the DL as well. Hill injured his hamstring on April 5th, and while he played in the teams next game, he hasn’t been in the lineup since. Hill is eligible to return April 23rd, and there is no reason at the moment to believe he wont be able to. Hill believes he could have played through the injury, and manager Cito Gaston has said he was considering playing him yesterday. Hopefully this is just a precaution, and the injury wont linger. If much of Hill’s value was tied up in his speed, a leg injury would be of more concern, but that’s not the case. John McDonald and Mike McCoy will split time until Hill comes back. Neither are worth a pickup in any format.

Finally, Jimmy Rollins was scratched from the Phillies lineup for Monday’s home opener after straining his right calf in warmups. Rollins is scheduled for an MRI, and a DL stint is possible. As with Hill, we’re hoping this is just a minor injury, even if it does cause him to miss a couple of weeks, but right now we just don’t know.

So, who should you look at to replace these guys in mixed leagues? There aren’t many great middle infielders out there. Luis Valbuena, who was one of my favorite pre-season sleepers, is owned in just 1.6% of ESPN standard mixed leagues. While he has started off the season a bit slowly, he is plenty capable of hitting for solid average with moderate pop. Orlando Hudson is owned in just over 12% of ESPN leagues, and while he’s not great, he could give you solid production and guaranteed playing time. Skip Schumaker is another solid option. At short stop, Orlando Cabrera is owned in under 20% of leagues. He’s another not-so-great option, but should provide solid across the board production. Valbuena, Ian Desmond, and Johnny Peralta are other solid options.

Frank Francisco has had a rough start to the season. After picking up his first save Monday, he imploded against the Blue Jays on Thursday, giving up 3 runs in two thirds of an inning. He’s got two years worth of performance indicating that he [...]]]> On Friday, I addressed the Rangers bullpen situation:

Frank Francisco has had a rough start to the season. After picking up his first save Monday, he imploded against the Blue Jays on Thursday, giving up 3 runs in two thirds of an inning. He’s got two years worth of performance indicating that he can be a solid closer, so don’t be too worried. Neftali Feliz is likely next in line for saves.

Neftali Feliz is an elite closer.

Well, Francisco blew up again, and Ron Washington decided he’d seen enough. Francisco is out, Feliz is in.

I don’t think there’s any reason to believe Feliz can’t handle the job. In 31 relief innings for Texas last season, Feliz struck out 39 batters, walking only 8, for  a 2.48 FIP. Feliz has the skills of an elite closer. If Feliz were to implode any time soon, Daren O’Day would likely be next inline, as he spent some time in the role last season and a relatively good middle reliever. I doubt that happens.

Long term, Francisco could still return to the closers role at some point. I’m not Jon Daniels, but I assume the Rangers still consider Feliz a starter. If someone in their rotation suffers an injury (I’m talking about you Rich Harden), they may be tempted to move Feliz into that spot. Francisco has two years of solid performance to indicate that he is a good reliever, and if he can turn it around, the Rangers may be inclined to move Feliz and put Francisco back in the closers role.

Bay, who hit .267, with 36 homers and 119 RBIs last season in Boston, is currently being taken 5th among outfielders in 22nd overall in early Mock Draft [...]]]> Mike Francessa of WFAN is reporting that Jason Bay will be headed to the Mets, and that an announcement of the deal is coming soon.

Bay, who hit .267, with 36 homers and 119 RBIs last season in Boston, is currently being taken 5th among outfielders in 22nd overall in early Mock Draft Central mocks. Bay could potentially hit cleanup, behind Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran, if the Mets decide to structure their lineup in that manner, and he would certainly be in prime position to rack up some good RBI numbers.

While some will worry about the impact of Citi Field, don’t be one of them. The Mets actually hit more homeruns at home than on the road, and the same was true for their opposition.