Another keeper list

So another keeper list has come in. Make sure to send in your keeper list if you would like keeper advice.

First lets get to the league settings and roster:

Hi, I need some help choosing who to keep in my fantasy baseball league.
It is a 12 team head to head league.
The categories are:  Batting: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OPS. Pitching:  W, SV K, HLD, ERA, WHIP.
Each team must keep a minimum of 10 keepers and a maximum of 12 keepers. If you keep 10, you get to pick before the teams who kept 11 or 12 keepers. 
 
My lineup:
C: Victor Martinez
1B: Albert Pujols
2B: Brandon Phillips
3B: Ryan Zimmerman
SS: Edgar Renteria
OF: Hideki Matsui
OF: Pat Burrell
OF: Magglio Ordonez
Util: Carlos Delgado
Util: Casey Blake
BN: Matt Kemp
BN: Paul Konerko
BN: Rafael Furcal
 
SP: Cole Hamels
SP: Jesse Litsch
SP: Aaron Cook
RP: BJ Ryan
RP: Ryan Franklin
P: AJ Burnett
P: Johan Santana
P: Scott Baker
BN: Daisuke Matsuzaka
BN: Dana Eveland
BN: Adam Wainright
BN: Matt Garza
BN: Brandon Webb
 
Thanks!

What I like to quickly do is get the no doubt guys on and off the list. Out of that roster I would say that Brandon Webb, Cole Hamels, Johan Santana, Albert Pujols, and Brandon Phillips are no doubt keepers. That gets us half way to the minimum and gives us a very solid top three in the rotation. 

Next who can we take off? Well Matsui, Blake, Konerko, Garza, Cook, Wainwright, and Eveland. I think the closest guy to making the list is probably Matsui but with the rumors the Yankees will go after Manny and Nady + Damon already crowding up the corner outfield I think it’s safe to say Matsui will have to fight for playing time. He could get time, I would rather avoid the risk. 

That leaves us with a bunch of guys and I will quickly cross off a few good names, not because I don’t think they are potentially worthy of a roster spot in 2009 but I’m not sure they are worthy of a top 10-12 round pick. Edgar Renteria goes, I like Furcal much better anyway. So do Delgado, Burell, Matsusaka, Franklin, and Litsch. I’ll also give the last spot to Burnett over Baker, not because I don’t like Baker, I think he’s a stud, but Burnett has far more strikeouts. As far as fantasy I think Burnett goes over Baker. 

Now we have 13 guys left and I think we really have the right 13 guys but we have to pair this down to 12. I think that at this point Furcal, Kemp, Ordonez, Ryan, and Burnett are close to no brainers and for me it’s between Ryan Zimmerman and Victor Martinez for the final roster spot. Both were early picks last year that didn’t work out but we only have a spot for one of them.

Last year Martinez was one of the worst players in the league, and limited playing time due to injury made things even worse. However he has put up OPS+ of 120-130 the four previous years playing catcher. Zimmerman was slightly better, but at the hot corner he put up OPS+ of 101, 107, and 114 his past three seasons. Ok, but not nearly the offensive performance we need. 

I think I would go with Martinez on this one. I have always been a huge fan of Vmart and even though he did struggle a lot in 2008 most of it was due to injuries. He didn’t have enough playing time to put up great numbers, and I think 2004-2007 speak for themselves. When healthy he is an offensive force at the shallower position. 

Now if trading is allowed in your league things change. You have a lot of quality guys and I think you should go out and try to pair down. Maybe Carlos Delgado and Cole Hamels gets you CC Sabathia. Just try to be creative in getting down to a roster of 12 really good guys and a bunch of fillers. Don’t leave a good player on your roster if you can help it in a non salary cap league. You definitely have 12 guys that are better than an 11th and 12th round pick so use your keeper spots and if you need help with a trade send it in and we can give you our opinion. 

Final list: 

1. Victor Martinez
2. Albert Pujols
3. Brandon Phillips
4. Rafael Furcal
5. Ryan Zimmerman 
6. Maglio Ordonez
7. Matt Kemp
8. Cole Hamels
9. Johan Santana
10. Brandon Webb
11. AJ Burnett
12. BJ Ryan

Another keeper list

Ben writes:

Hey Alex,

Was hoping you could help me out with some tough decisions for my keeper league next year. After winning the league twice in a row, my team failed to come together this year, and I ended up throwing the season in about June for some keepers. My league’s specs: 10 teams, auction-style ($260 budget), C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, IF, 4 OFs, Util, 10 Ps. No innings cap, 5×5 standard with obp instead of avg. We have a three year cap on keepers, so that a player can only be kept two times and then must be put back in the market.

My options include:
Votto for $3 (2 years remaining)
BJ Upton for $5 (1 year remaining)
Chipper Jones for $15 (2 years remaining)
Carlos Quentin for $1 (2 years remaining)
Nick Markakis for $9 (1 year remaining)
Jay Bruce for $2 (2 years remaining)
Headley, Zimmerman, Ian Stewart, Stephen Drew, and Tulowitzki for $1 each (all 2 years remaining), but I don’t expect to seriously consider any of them, given my other options.

Andrew Miller for $1 (2 years)
Clayton Kershaw for $5 (2 years)
James Shields for $1 (1 year)
Mike Pelfrey for $1 (2 years)
Yovani Gallardo for $1 (1 year)
Chris Perez for $1 (2 years)

I can keep 7 players. I’m pretty set on keeping Shields, Quentin, Upton, Markakis, and Gallardo (but please convince me otherwise if you disagree). I also really want to keep Bruce, but that would fill up all 4 of my OF spots, which is not the most appealing proposition heading into an auction.

Your thoughts?

First, let me say that I agree on your selections of Quentin, Upton, Markakis, Shields, and Gallardo. I think they are the top 3 hitters, and top 2 pitchers on your list. After that, I think your other selections have to depend on who is likely to be available. For example, if you do not think any premium talent will be available I would go the extra $15 to take Chipper Jones. Even with the injury risk that always comes with him, he continues to put up sustainable skills and has proved able to convert that into production. In that case, I would go with Jones, and one of Bruce, Votto, Kershaw, and Perez.

If you however think there will be some top tier talent, I would go with a couple of younger, cheaper, and better value options in Jay Bruce and Clayton Kershaw. I understand that handcuffing your outfield this early could be an issues, but having Upton, Quentin, Markakis, and Bruce filling 80% of your outfield for $17 dollars is a good problem to have. I think that would provide you with the additional outfield spot in order to go after a Matt Holliday or Grady Sizemore if they are available. Kershaw is also an easy choice in my opinion because he although he costs a little more than Perez, Pelfrey, etc. he is by far the best pitcher of the bunch, the youngest, and the one with the highest upside. In 2008, Kershaw put up a mediocre 4.35 tRA. That is pretty good however if you consider that he was 20 years old. The average pitcher of his age is probably at advanced A ball, and similarly aged pitcher like Phil Hughes and Felix Hernandez also had their ups and downs over the past few seasons. His minor league track record is amazing, with tRA’s between 2.70 and 3.30 over the past few seasons to go a long with a ton of strikeouts and barely any walks. You can’t expect Kershaw to be perfect next season, but a lot of growth in 2009, and even more in 2010, should be a bargain for 5 bucks.

My point is this: If there isn’t much out there, pay whatever you have to to keep your talent, and try to pick up a few sleepers (I’ll revel those in the upcoming draft kit so check back before you auction) and you should have a great shot at winning your league. If you think that the auction pool will be full of talent however, drop Chippers semi-dead weight contract and go after the stud first rounders to fill out your roster.

Want help with your keeper selections? Email mailbag@fantasybullpen.com with the subject name of keepers, keeper help, 2009 keeper list, etc. so that I know what it is. If it is really, really urgent please say so! I’ll get back to you with in a day or so anyway.