Chipper Jones left Thursday’s game against Chicago in the fourth inning after straining his right oblique. While the Braves say Jones should only be out a couple of days, don’t count on it. Jones has been plagued by injuries for the better part of a decade, and at 37, no injury can be considered minor. With Chipper out, Omar Infante will likely fill in at third base. Even with playing time, Infante offers little to no value in even the deepest formats. As far as Chipper goes, if you own him, put him on the bench and cross your fingers. If he’s still not in the lineup Sunday, he might not be worth playing in weekly leagues.

Aaron Hill was scratched from the lineup on Thursday with hamstring tightness. While the injury does not appear to be serious, he is out of the lineup again today, and is considered day to day for the weekend series with Texas. Mike McCoy started in his place on Thursday, but is not worth a look in any format. Andre Ethier was also out of the lineup on Thursday with a high ankle sprain, with Garret Andreson starting in his place. As with Hill, this is unlikely to mean a DL trip, but his status for Saturday and Sunday is unknown. If Ethier is out for an extended period of time, Anderson is worth a look in NL-Only leagues.

Richard Brandon "Dick" Wood got called up by the Los Angeles Angels today

Let’s take a look at his resume up to the age of 24:

- 4 straight 20+ home runs seasons.
- 2 30+ home run seasons.
- A 2005 season where he hit well over .300, with 43 homers, and a .667 SLG at the age of 20.

With all the Angels injuries this season (Kevin Jepsen and Vlad Guerero the latest) it was a little surprising that Wood wasn’t getting the call. He had a great spring, and through Monday, lead the PCL in SLG, ISO, OPS, and wOBA. 

Wood projected to be a monster power hitter, that’s the only sure thing though. His defense at shortstop is very, very suspect, and with that kind of power, the Angels moved him to thirdbase a few years. This hurts his fantasy value a little, but it was the right move. He was 31 runs below replacemnt at SS in 2007 (AAA), where as at third, he is around average, and improving as he adjusts to the position. He could end up being an above average defender, which would keep him at the position.

Speed wise this guy is somewhere around Ryan Braun. He stole a good number of bases at the low minors, but as he has moved up, he’s stolen a little less. Still, 10 steals last season and the Angels love to send runners. This will be an aset fantasy wise. 

His biggest problem is obvious. He has absolutley no ability to make contact on a consistent basis. But it’s getting better. 

CT%
2007 (AA) – 67.1%
2007 (AAA) – 72.5%
2007 (MLB) – 64.6% (small sample size)
2008 (AAA) – 73.7%
2008 (MLB) – 71.3%
2009 (Spring) – 79.7%
2009 (AAA) – 76.9%

So that contact rate is getting much, much better, and it’s translated well to the upper levels. He also has improved his walk rate, and after a promotion to the big leagues showed some uncharacteristic patience. If his CT% hits 80% (it could in a few years), he’d probably be a .280 hitter at the least. If it stays in the mid 70s for now (likely) he’s going to hit in the .260′s, but he also has ridiculous power and some speed. If you compare him to other up and coming thirdbasemen, he looks ok.

Evan Longoria had more patience, but his CT% at the high levels was in the mid-70s, and the low 70s last year as a rookie. And Wood has more raw power and speed. Ryan Braun had more of a high 70s CT rate in his 2006 breakout season, but his rookie year was in the mid 70s.

If Wood comes up, and makes contact at least 75% of the time, along with that power, and some speed, he’s going to hit in the .260-.280 range, with 25-30 homers, and double digit steals. Plus, with the Angels issues, he’s going to be hitting in the middle of that order along with Napoli, Hunter, Abreu, Juan Rivera, etc. etc. As long as the Angels are commited to getting him at bats (and he’s 24, they sort of have to be at some point) Brandon Wood could be a fantasy star. I have him on pretty much all of my teams, and when he hits bomb after bomb at the major league level, I’m going to enjoy it. Go pick him up. Make room for him. You wont regret it.

International League (AAA)

Wilkin Ramirez has tons of fantasy upside.

Wilkin Ramirez is off to a fantastic start. In his first 7 games, he’s hitting .310 and is a perfect 5/5 in stolen base attempts. He also has a home run, a triple, and a double. Ramirez has a tremendous fantasy ceiling due to his speed and power. That said, he strikes out way too much and doesn’t walk enough. The Tigers have Marcus Thames and Josh Anderson platooning in the lineup spot he would have to take, so it’s not like he’s playing behind Albert Pujols, and if he continues to play like he has the Tigers might be forced to give him a shot.

Austin Jackson is also off to a good start so far, hitting .480 with a triple and 3 steals. He also showed off his power this spring, slugging over .600 with 3 homers. Jackson’s ultimate upside is debatable. He’s a great athlete with tons of speed, and as we saw this spring the power upside is there. The problem is his disappointing season last year, in which he only hit 9 homers in a full season at AA. If he keeps playing this way, and Brett Gardner struggles, he could find himself in New York by the second half. Either way, he’s probably the Yankees starting center fielder on opening day next year. 

Everyone expected Matt Laporta to make it to the big leagues at some point this year, but that schedule may be excelerated the way he is hitting the ball. Laporta is hitting .400 with a homer, a triple, and three doubles. He’s also only struck out twice in his first 20 at bats. Travis Hafner is also hitting well at the big league level so the DH spot isn’t open, but Casey Blake has struggled, potentially opening up the first base spot. I’d keep an eye on him, he will be in the big leagues soon enough. 

Andrew McCutchen is fast. In his first 7 games, he’s got 2 doubles, 3 triples, 2 steals, and is hitting .281. McCutchen, who made strides in his pitch selection last year, has walked 4 times and only struck out 3 in 36 plate appearances. 

Finally, Ryan Raburn has hit 4 homers so far on the season. The Tigers are loaded with power hitting outfield types, and Raburn is 28, however he has shown good power throughout his minor league career. At his age, he has peaked and is unlikely to do all that much at the big league level, however if he gets a call he’s worth a shot in AL only leagues. He could chip in a few homers. 

Pacific Coast League (AAA)

Matt Gamel has been absolutely destroying AAA so far this year, and with the Brewers 3B situation, they will eventually have to suck it up and deal with his defense at the hot corner. He’s just too good with the bat. He’s batting .500 with 4 doubles and 2 homers in 28 plate appearances. He’s walked 5 times, been hit by a pitch, and struck out 3 times. He’s proved everything he can in the minor leagues the last couple of years. The Brewers will have to bring him up soon. 

Brandon Wood has been to the plate 15 times this year. He’s also hit 3 home runs and a triple. He has insane power and has been more selective this spring. Erik Aybar shouldn’t be holding him back at SS. He will be up soon. 

24 year old Dodgers outfielder Xavier Paul has started off well, hit .542 with 5 doubles, a triple, and 3 steals. Paul hit over .300 with 9 homers and 7 steals at AAA last season, and had hit over .285 with double digit homers and steals the two years before, so we know he can hit. He has solid gap power, and plenty of speed, with a great arm and solid defensive abilities. The question is when he will get a shot. With Manny, Ethier, and Kemp, that probably wont happen until someone gets hurt. He’s still 24, so watch him.

—————————–

I’ll run down AA at some point in the next week.

Jese Litsch

The centerfield job in Chicago no appears to be wide open after Dewayne Wise separated his should on Monday. Wise will be out for more than a month, and there are a few options out there to fill his spot. Brian Anderson is already with the team, and has some power upside. He is probably the best bet for now. Jerry Owens is sitting down in the minor leagues. He could get a call up. The White Sox also signed Scott Podsednik to a minor league deal. It would not be surprising to see him playing center in Chicago. Whoever ends up with the jobs (realistically, it’s probably Brian Anderson) is worth a shot in AL only leagues. Mixed leaguers stay away. 

Melvin Mora has been placed on the 15 day DL. All you need to know is that Ty Wigington will be starting for the next 15+ days and that Ty Wigington is pretty good at baseball. Pick him up.

Jed Lowrie was placed on the 15 day DL with a sore right wrist. Taking his place for now is journeymen Nick Green. Obviously stay away. However, at some point next week Julio Lugo will be back with the team and presumably starting at short. He has his deficiencies, but he has some power and a good amount of speed.  In AL only leagues Lugo is probably taken, but if not grab him now. In mixed leagues pay attention as he does have some potential value playing SS.

AJ Burnett and Matt Garza both pitched fantastically on Tuesday. Burnett’s only real issue is health. Garza coming into the season was a risk simply because his K rate had not translated to the big leagues. Last nights start (7 innings, 9 ks) is a step in the right direction. 

Xavier Nady was removed from Tuesday game with a sore right elbow and will be undergoing an MRI on Wednesday. If this is anything serious, expect most of the playing time to go to red hot Nick Swisher (who is worth a pickup in ANY league). Melky Cabrera could also see a nice boost in playing time. While he has struggled the last few years, he’s still young and there still is some upside. He’s worth an add in AL only leagues.  

Daisuke Matsuzaka left after one inning of work Tuesday, giving up 5 runs on 5 hits, walking 2 and striking out none. The Red Sox say he was experiencing arm fatigue, so don’t take too much out of the results, but Matsuzaka already came into the year a huge risk and he may end up landing on the DL. If Clay Buccholz gets called up, be ready to pounce as he dominated this spring and is worth adding in all but the shallowest of leagues. 

Carl Pavano gave up 4 runs in 6 innings. Ok, so what? Well that’s not all. He struck out 8, yes 8 batters in those 6 innings while not walking any. He did give up a few too many liners and flyballs but his command of the strike zone and flat out dominance for stretches of the game was impressive. He has a solid skill history, and when he’s healthy he’s usually pretty good. I might be inclined to speculated on him in deep AL only leagues. Otherwise leave him alone. His first start (1 inning, 9 runs) shows his downside, and even his upside isn’t that great. 

John Buck homered twice for the Royals Tuesday, bringing his season total to 3 as a backup. He still doesn’t make enough contact, but if his 2007 power is back it’s possible that he ends up starting in KC. He’s worth an add in AL only leagues. Mixed leaguers should wait till he actually gets a starting job, even if you do play 2 catchers. 

So almost 800 words about the American league, can I match that for the NL? Probably not. One big story though tonight coming out of St. Louis…

Chris Carpenter was removed from Tuesdays game in the 4th inning with an abdominal strain. He has NOT been placed on the DL and we still do not know the severity of this injury. This is big as Carpenter had been mildly successful this spring and early in the regular season. If he ends up on the DL, whoever ends up starting in his place is not worth mention in mixed leagues, possibly a shot in NL only leagues. Unless of course they sign Pedro.

The worst three words for any pitcher to here are “Dr. James Andrews” and it seems Tom Glavine will be paying him a visit this week. Glavine is experiencing pain while trying to rehab from an injury. This could be the end of a great career for Glavine, but it is relatively irrelevant fantasy wise. Glavine has borderline skills, and was not owned in most mixed leagues. Obviously this is not a good reason to change that.

Let’s start off easy with some obvious ones:

Johan Santana – Listen I was very critical of Johan Santana coming into this season. Not that I didn’t think he would be great – obviously he will be – but his K rate had plummeted and he still was a bit of a flyball pitcher. Well he’s trying very hard to prove me wrong, and I admit that so far Johan Santana has been the best pitcher in the league. In his first 12 2/3 innings Johan has struck out 20 (walking 5) and given up 1 earned run. He’s been very lucky so far, but his K rate is over 14 so I promise to leave him alone. Vintage Johan is back.

Erik Bedard – It was just two years ago that he posted a K rate of almost 11, so it shouldn’t be surprising that he is currently second in the majors in FIP. But 15 ks to 1 walk? Obviously he wont sustain that K/BB rate, but in 2007 he posted an elite K rate, solid BB rate, and 47% grounders. I expect Erik Bedard to move back into the top 15 pitchers this year, baring injury. His skill set is flat out amazing. 

Josh Johnson – Great combination of velocity, command, and a sick slider. Johnson is one of the top pitchers in the league now. Groundball pitchers with 95 MPH heat and great control don’t come along frequently. 

Zach Greinkie and Jake Peavy are also off to magnificent starts. Greinkie is on the edge of the games elite, and soon could be in that group. Peavy is already in there, and while he still has injury concerns you like to see his K rate moving in the right direction. 

And now some less obvious ones…

Is Zach Dukes shutout a sign of things to come?

Zach Duke – Duke is 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA. Some might say it’s a complete aberration, and some might say he’s the next Cliff Lee. I’m somewhere in between. First of all there are some good signs. His K rate in the second half last year, and this spring, was over 5.2, where as his K rate the first half of 2008 and all of 2007 was well below 5. Duke has some strengths as well. He is a ground ball pitcher and he has great control. The one big difference between this year and last year is velocity (he is averaging over 90 MPH this year, something he had not reached in 05-08). If he could get his K rate over 6, he COULD be this years Cliff Lee. But that’s unlikely. A 4.00 ERA and a decent whip is possible, he eats innings so he should chip in some wins, but don’t expect many Ks. He’s a worthy 4×4 guy, and he should be owned in NL only leagues (of course), with a decent amount of upside, but until his K rate starts to push 6 I’d probably pass in a 12 team mixed. If your starved for pitching though, and you want his K/BB rate and GB% upside, pick him up. 

Kevin Millwood – We called him “this year’s Cliff Lee” a few weeks ago, and he has delivered. 11 Ks, 1 walk, 14 innings pitched, and a .64 ERA. His GB% is back up, him K/BB rate great as usual. Bad luck has killed him the past few years, when that evens out expect a sub-4 ERA. 

Kyle Loshe - He’s borderline. His numbers so far this year have been solid, with 8 ks and 1 walk in his first 2 starts. He’s a control artist to the extreme, and he has a solid GB%. But his K rate isn’t good enough to be anything close to elite. Last year he was under the radar, and fairly solid with a sub-4 ERA & FIP as well as a 2.43 K/BB rate. Great in 4×4 leagues, and NL only just like Zach Duke, but in your normal 12 team mixed probably not.

Kyle Davies – I detailed this a bit in my article about the cutter, but Davies is now throwing it and so I would give him a shot. He had a great first start, and I believe that with his new pitch (plus last years improvement) Davies is poised for a breakout. 

Jarrod Washburn – This one has to be a no. I just don’t see it. 4 ks in 8 innings isn’t going to cut it, even if you only walk 1. And that’s about where his career is at right now. 1 “good” start doesn’t change that, and as I said he didn’t miss many bats. He also doesn’t keep the ball on the ground. Batters make contact with 84% of the pitches he throws, and over 90% of the pitches he throws in the strike zone. Even with solid control, he’s at best a flyer in AL only leagues. Those 4.7 FIPs don’t lie. 

Carlos Zambrano - Is the Carlos Zambrano of old back? Through his first 12 innings, Zambrano has 13 ks. However he does have 6 walks. Still, this is encouraging, as is his fastball velocity back at it’s 2006 level. His latest start was even better. He only went 3 innings, but 5 ks and 1 walk are very good. I am the harshest Big Z critic out there, but he’s showing something. It’s a small sample size, but it’s the first good thing we have seen in 3 years.

Mariano Rivera is famous for his cutter, but other pitchers are using it well.

With the recent success of Andy Sonnanstine and John Danks throwing the cutter, I thought it would be interesting to research what effect the cutter has on a pitchers career. Everyone knows the story of Mariano Rivera learning the cutter and going on to be the most successful closer in major league history, but still relatively few pitchers throw a cutter.

So I decided I would take a look on what effect throwing the cutter has on a pitcher the first year that they use it significantly (more than 10% of the time).

For this project, I took every pitcher that threw more than 10% cutters in 2008, and look at their pitch selection data to find the exact date they started throwing their cutter (a significant amount). For example, Andy Sonnansine threw some cutters in 2007, but he started throwing a significant amount of cutters in 2008. Some pitchers were not included in this because they either started throwing their cutters in the minor leagues, or they started throwing them before baseball info solutions started counting cutters (2004).

So first I took the statistics of these pitchers the season before they started throwing cutters. Then I took the statistics for the season directly following the point where they started throwing cutters. Below:

My first impression was absolute shock. I was expecting there to be a positive impact, but massive across the board improvement like this is amazing. The pitchers without a cutter would have an ERA+ around 95, 5% worse than the league average pitcher. After learning the cutter? 111, 11% better than the league average.

Let’s look at where our pitchers improved.

K rate: This is where I thought we would see the most significant spike, and we did see a drastic increase. 6.79 to 7.03 is a big difference.

BB rate: This was extremely surprising. When you think of the cutter, you think of guys like Mariano Rivera racking up the strikeouts. Evidently, it is a very easy pitch to control.

GB%: Now here is something else that surprised me. I thought GB% would increase with the cutter, but in fact it stayed the same (actually decreasing by a couple tenths of a percent). However, pitchers HR rates plummeted. This was not due to a drop in FB% or a spike in LD%, as both rates remained constant. Pitchers HR/FB rates just dropped significantly when throwing the cutter. While stats like hit rate and hr/fb rate are usually not significantly effected by the pitcher, pitchers that throw a cutter demonstrate a much lower HR/FB rate.

Also interesting is that almost every pitcher improved in a very similar manner. There was one notable exception; not all pitchers saw an increase in K rate, however most pitchers did. Take a look:

Most pitchers, but certainly not all of them, improved their K rate. All but 1 pitcher improved their control, and all but 3 pitchers improved their K/BB rate and HR rate. All in all massive across the board improvements.

Probably the most amazing thing about this is that less than 17% of starting pitchers in major league baseball threw more than 10% cutters last season. The cutter seems to be a free pass to becoming a massively better pitcher in every single aspect of pitching, yet most pitchers do not throw it.

This information also has massive predictive value. If you here that a starting pitcher is working on a cutter, it is a safe bet to expect improvement across the board. Just as an example, take a look at what the cutter did for Jamie Moyer.

2004: 44 HR, 5.24 ERA
2005: 23 HR, 4.28 ERA

So even a 40+ year old pitcher can learn a cutter, and instantly improve drastically in at least one aspect of the game, making them a significantly better pitcher. Moyer didn’t even throw that many more GBs, he just learned a pitch that seems to be magic for MLB pitchers. And young pitchers can be helped by this too. Take a look at John Danks from last season:

2007: 7.06 K rate, 3.5 BB rate, 1.81 HR rate, 5.50 ERA.
2008: 7.34 K rate, 2.6 BB rate, 0.69 HR rate, 3.23 ERA.

As for the fantasy value of this information, there is one pitcher that will be throwing a significant number of cutters this season that did not in previous seasons. That pitcher is Kyle Davies. Davies, a former top prospect, has struggled the last few seasons but there was some reason to hope coming into 2009. And so far, he has delivered (although in a small sample size). In one start he went 7 innings, struck out 8, walked 2, and didn’t allow a home run. This is most likely a sign of things to come.

The assumption would be that more balls translates into more walks, and in general this is obviously the case. However is this always the case? Do some pitchers have an ability to prevent more walks than their number of balls would suggest? To find this out, I decided to divide a pitchers balls by their walks aloud.

FanGraphs has ball/strike data going back to 2002, so I decided to evaluate data from 2002 to the present. In order to limit for sample size, I used all pitcher that have pitched 500 or more innings during that time. 167 pitchers qualified.

This is what I found:

From 2002-2009 the average Ball/Walk ratio (among pitchers I studied) was 17.89. In 2008, the average Ball/Walk ratio was 17.82.

There was a pretty large variance. The lowest number was under 9, the highest over 32. Most pitchers were clustered somewhere in the middle, with 81% of them between 14 and 21.

The pitchers clustered at the bottom are guys that are pretty universally described by one word: shaky. Oliver Perez, Victor Zambrano, Daniel Cabrera, Brandon Backe, and the list goes on and on.

Radke leads all pitchers with a B/BB ratio over 32

The top of the list is where most of the finesse pitchers are. Brad Radke sits at the number one spot by a pretty confertable margin, with David Wells, Curt Schilling, Jon Lieber, Greg Maddux, Carlos Silva, Paul Byrd, Josh Towers, James Shields, Roy Halladay, and Mike Mussina occupying the top 11.

So far this does make some sense. The top pitchers are described as smart, finesse pitchers. They are human – they do miss sometimes – but when they fall behind in the count they lock down and they rarely ever walk anyone. At the bottom you have your shaky (and for the most part bad) pitchers that throw a lot of balls, but also walk a ton of guys, and have no ability to lock down and command their pitches.

Most of the good K pitchers are clustered in the middle of the pack. They don’t have as much command as the top guys, and they aren’t nearly as shaky as the bottom few.

Another observation I made is that some of the pitchers near the bottom of this list are actually pretty good. Scott Kazmir is at 14.36, Kerry Wood 14.43, Rich Harden 14.49, Matt Cain 14.6, and Derek Lowe 14.9.

Now this information isn’t all that useful. It basically confirms that BB rate is a completely luck independent stat. But we can put it to work for us in some cases. For example, Felix Hernandez.

2007: 53 walks, 1064 balls.
2008: 80 walks, 1172 balls.

Felix didn’t exactly lose the strike zone in 2008, he was just very shaky and inconsistent. There’s no reason to believe he wont revert back to his career B/BB ratio around 17.5% (almost league average). There is even a good chance at his age that he will improve that. Felix has plenty of upside where BB rate is concerned, just like he could put up a big K rate or GB%.

Matt Cain is also interesting, and highly confusing. Over his career he consistently is among the lowest ball counts in the league, but his BB rate is all over the place. While he is always a very inconsistent pitcher, there is some hope. His B/BB rate was around 15.65 in 2007 and around 14 in 2008. He has the ability to improve that BB rate over the next few years if he can mature.

A lot more interesting stuff here. For example, here is a graph detailing the relation ship between strike/ball ratio and ball/walk ratio (both are “better” high).

Here is the spreadsheet with 2002-2009 statistics on balls, strikes, and walks.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkaci5b7xQ0iZohDUoBU7cQ

Overall the most important thing out of this is pretty simple. Just because you throw more balls, doesn’t mean you are going to walk more batters. There is a skill involved in preventing walks independent of pure control.

Brandon Inge 

Emilio Bonifacio – This hot start was blown way out of proportion. Bonifacio is not and never will be a power hitter, and 1 home runs doesn’t change that. He’s got 4 steals, but that’s no surprise either. He’s fast, makes solid contact, and that’s about it. If he gets full playing time he’s a valuable SB asset. 

Travis Hafner - Pronk is back! Or at least that’s what his hot start would have some think. Although I’m not going to fall into the 4 game sample size trap, Hafner is now hitting .313 with a couple of homers and 3 walks. I think we can safely dismiss last year as due to injuries, but his power hasn’t been the same in 3 years. Hanfer had a pretty bad spring with only 4 extra base hits in 50 at bats. That said, we can’t ignore this. Hafner was a force between 2004-2006, and his 2007 wasn’t all that bad. He’s worth a gamble in any format, and could end up being a massive bargain for AL only owners. 

Jordan Schafer – Through 4 games, Schafer is hitting over .300 with 2 homers and 3 walks similar to Hafner. He’s also struck out 4 times, his undoing through most of his minor league career, but he has legit 20-20 upside right now. Schafer was a monster prospect before a suspension last year, but his talent is still there. He’s not a .300 hitter, but neither is Grady Sizemore. I think that’s the best comparison for him.

Adam Lind – A BA over .400 and 3 home runs in his first 5 games look very good. Lind’s best year to date was in 2006 when he hit 24 homers through 2 levels, but the power hasn’t really translated. In 363 AAA ABs, Lind has 12 homers the last couple of years, with 20 in 616 MLB at bats. His plate discipline didn’t really translate well either. In the minors he consistently posted OBPs close to .400, but in the big leagues his OBP has been hovering around .315. But minor league skills DO translate eventually in almost every player, and if this is Lind’s skills translating watch out. He’s capable of putting up monster HR numbers, and his BA will always be pretty good. I’m not going to say his hot start is necessarily for real. At least not yet.

1. Tampa Bay Rays – This is one of the most unsettled bullpens out there. It’s also one of the best. Troy Percival will start the season as the closer but that shouldn’t last too long. Last year he was horrible, with a 1.4 k/bb rate and FB rate under 25%. So when he implodes who takes over? Well last year Joe Maddon went to Dan Wheeler. Wheeler has a good history skills wise, but last year he wasn’t all that good. If he can recapture 2007 (which he did in the second half to a degree) he’s a good bet to get the saves opportunities. If not, bet on Grant Balfour, then JP Howell. 

2. Toronto Blue Jays – While BJ Ryan does have a solid performance record, health wise he’s a mess. This bullpen is no mystery. With a dip in velocity and rumored injuries, I’ll take the under on 10 saves from Ryan. Scott Downs is the obvious – and correct – next guy in line. When BJ ends up on the DL, Scott Downs will get the saves. Pick him up if available. 

3. Chicago White Sox – This is debatable. Bobby Jenks has a history of solid skills and solid health. But he’s also seen a massive decrease in strikeouts the last few years, and he is no longer an elite option (or even close). Let’s look at his numbers last year. 5.5 K rate (down from 10 in 2006!), 2.5 BB rate (up from 1.8 last year!), and a very mediocre 2.2 k/bb rate (down from 4.3 last year!). The point is, Bobby Jenks isn’t the same pitcher he used to be. He’s a GB pitcher with good control, but he doesn’t have a closers skill set. Who takes over if he fails? Wide open. Dotel, Linebrink, and Thornton all have a shot. Thornton has the best skill in my opinion, but the White Sox probably wont put a lefty in the closers role. I think Dotel has the best shot with a sick K rate and solid across the board skills. Linebrink is also a solid bet. 

4. Cleveland Indians – Because Kerry Wood is the closer, and Kerry Wood likes to get hurt. A lot. If he gets hurt there are two candidates for the job. Jensen Lewis, and Rafael Perez. Perez is easily the better pitcher with a great K/GB profile and a sub-3 BB rate. He’s probably one of the 10-15 best relievers in baseball. But Lewis is ok. He has a decent K rate, and a decent walk rate, and even a decent GB%. I mean nothing like Perez, but he’s a righty so he might get the first shot. 

5. Los Angeles Angels – In my opinion, Brian Fuentes is one of the best closers in the league. That said, he’s had back (and performance) issues this spring. If he goes down, the two candidates here are Jose Arrendondo and Scott Shields. I think Arrendondo is the best bet, as he’s younger and if they hadn’t signed Fuentes he’d have been the closer, but Shields has skills and experience so he does have a shot. My money’s on Jose.

6. Oakland Athletics – Brad Zieglar just isn’t closer material. He doesn’t give up home runs, but that’s about it. He has a very sub-par K rate and his control last season was just ok. Behind him we have two options. Santiago Cassilla has been one of my favorite future-closers for about 3 years now, but he’s never put it together for a full season. That said… look at his numbers in the first half last year. A K rate of almost 10, a walk rate under 2, and a GB% approaching 50. This kid is for real, and if he can be even a little bit consistent he’s going to end up with the job when Zieglar loses it. Jerry Blevins also has a nice skill set, but he barely made the team. He has a lot of ground to make up in that bullpen.