Frank Francisco has had a rough start to the season. After picking up his first save Monday, he imploded against the Blue Jays on Thursday, giving up 3 runs in two thirds of an inning. He’s got two years worth of performance indicating that he can be a solid closer, so don’t be too worried. Neftali Feliz is likely next in line for saves.

Neftali Feliz is an elite closer.

Well, Francisco blew up again, and Ron Washington decided he’d seen enough. Francisco is out, Feliz is in.

I don’t think there’s any reason to believe Feliz can’t handle the job. In 31 relief innings for Texas last season, Feliz struck out 39 batters, walking only 8, for  a 2.48 FIP. Feliz has the skills of an elite closer. If Feliz were to implode any time soon, Daren O’Day would likely be next inline, as he spent some time in the role last season and a relatively good middle reliever. I doubt that happens.

Long term, Francisco could still return to the closers role at some point. I’m not Jon Daniels, but I assume the Rangers still consider Feliz a starter. If someone in their rotation suffers an injury (I’m talking about you Rich Harden), they may be tempted to move Feliz into that spot. Francisco has two years of solid performance to indicate that he is a good reliever, and if he can turn it around, the Rangers may be inclined to move Feliz and put Francisco back in the closers role.

If Mike Gonzalez falters, Johnson is next in line.

We have to start with Baltimore’s Mike Gonzalez. Gonzalez, who was signed this off-season to stabilize the Orioles bullpen, has not made a great first impression, blowing 2 of his first 3 saves. We shouldn’t look into this 2 IP sample size too much (at all) but will the Orioles? Gonzalez did lose the job to Rafael Soriano last year, despite ending the season with a 2.42 ERA and 90 Ks in 74.1 innings. The fact that he was signed to close this off-season, and that the Orioles don’t have a dominant setup guy to take over, might give Gonzalez a longer leash. But if he blows his next save or two that could be it. Jim Johnson would likely be the next in line for the closers role, where he had moderate success last season. Johnson is a big, hard throwing pitcher who induces a lot of groundballs, but probably doesn’t strike out enough batters to be a successful closer long term. Kam Mickolio is even bigger (he’s 6-9), throws even harder, and strikes out more than a batter an inning. He’s in the minors to start the season, but if you want a long shot saves guy, Mickolio isn’t a bad bet.

As bad as Mike Gonzalez has been, the Marlins bullpen has been worse. Though Leo Nunez has yet to allow a run, he blew his first save opportunity of the year, and has been extremely wild thus far. Nunez and former teammate Matt Lindstrom probably share the title of “worst closer in baseball,” so don’t be surprised if Nunez blows a few more. That being said, Nunez might just be the Marlins best reliever at the moment. That bullpen is a complete mess. The two options that stick out are Dan Meyer and Burke Badenhop. Meyer, a former top prospect who revived his career as a reliever last year, finished the season with a 3.87 FIP and 4.11 xFIP, striking out nearly a batter an inning. Badenhop is a groundball pitcher with good control who posted a very solid 7.00 K/9 last year, but his lack of velocity and history as a starter could keep him from getting many save chances. The longshot here might just be former #1 pick Andrew Miller. Everyone knows Miller has great stuff, but his horrendous control has derailed his career. He fits the profile of a closer, and if the Marlins can’t find anyone else to get 3 outs in the 9th, they might consider putting Miller in the bullpen. At the moment, you probably want to pick up Dan Meyer.

The Toronto bullpen, while not lacking in options, is still a bit of a mystery. Jason Frasor is a very good closer, but blew his first save of the year, and lacks the job security of other top-tier options. When your share a bullpen with two former closers, that can kill you. While Scott Downs would appear to be the Blue Jays next options should Frasor fail, Kevin Gregg came into the game on Friday with Frasor getting the day off. For now, Frasor’s job is safe. If he should lose it, Kevin Gregg, not Downs, may be the next guy in line. He’s a right hander, and he has more experience as a closer. Downs is the much better reliever though, and while Gregg does have a decent enough skill set to hold onto the job, he’s shaky at best. In deep leagues, Gregg is worth a flier, as is Downs, though Frasor should rebound enough to keep his job.

Frank Francisco has had a rough start to the season. After picking up his first save Monday, he imploded against the Blue Jays on Thursday, giving up 3 runs in two thirds of an inning. He’s got two years worth of performance indicating that he can be a solid closer, so don’t be too worried. Neftali Feliz is likely next in line for saves. Finally, Billy Wagner blew his first save of the year Friday night. Don’t be worried. Wagner is still an elite closer, and stuck out five of the first seven guys he faced this year.

Brian Fuentes has saved 159 games since 2005, with a skill set to back it up.

Los Angeles Angels:

Closer – Brian Fuentes.
Setup – Fernando Rodney.
Best pitchers – Fuentes.

Even after a 48 save season, most are going to be down on Fuentes. And rightfully so, the guy pitched quite poorly. His ERA almost hit 4, and his FIP and xFIP were way worse. That said, he’s a year removed from truly elite across the board numbers, and he was one of the best closers in baseball during the first half. It’s possible he was hurt or just overworked during the second half of last season, and that we’ll see the same old Fuentes in 2010, making him a decent bargain, especially given the team he plays for. Fernando Rodney was somewhat successful last season, but he doesn’t have the skill set to back it up. If Fuentes loses his job, Rodney might get some looks, but Kevin Jepsen is definitely the second pitcher you want to own in this bullpen.

Texas Rangers:

Closer – Frank Francisco.
Setup – CJ Wilson.
Best pitchers – Francisco.

Frank Francisco had an up and down year in 2009, spending a lot of time on the DL, but his numbers were fine across the board. His propensity for giving up home runs keeps him from being an elite level closer, but if he stays on the field, he should be a solid #2 in mixed leagues. Given those health risks, it might be worth owning CJ Wilson, who had a breakout year last season, with a 2.89 FIP and 3.25 xFIP, although you really only need to roster him in AL only leagues. If Neftali Feliz stays in the bullpen to start 2010, he might contend for saves, given his complete dominance at the end of last season.

Seattle Mariners:

Closer – David Aardsma.
Setup – Brandon League.
Best pitchers – League.

A bullpen to watch. Aardsma had some success last season, but his track record, and his 2009 FIP, say that success could come to an end very quickly. The defense and ballpark in Seattle will help him out, but if he falters – and that’s no stretch – Brandon League has the skill set to close, with a 3.62 K/BB rate and 55.7% GB rate last season. Aardsma is in a good situation in Seattle, but he’s still a risk, and League has an elite all around skill set, so watch out.

Oakland Athletics:

Closer – Andrew Bailey.
Setup – Joey Devine.
Best pitchers – Bailey.

Andrew Bailey came out of nowhere last year, and some may look at his minor league track record and conclude he can’t repeat his success. They are wrong. Since being converted into a reliever, Bailey has done nothing but dominate the competition, and he should continue to do so in 2010, as one of the best closers in all of baseball. Joey Devine has a similarly elite skill set, but given his injury last season, and Bailey’s success, he’s unlikely to win the job out of Spring Training. If Bailey goes down, Devine could be a good pickup, but otherwise, this Oakland bullpen is pretty much locked down.

According to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, the Blue Jays have traded reliever Brandon League to the Seattle Mariners for Brandon Morrow. One other prospect was involved in the deal, and Brett Wallace’s name has been floated around as a possibility.

If Wallace is in the deal, this is tremendous for Seattle. The Mariners, as currently constructed, lack the patience and power needed to score runs. Wallace gives them that. The first rounder in 2008 hit .293/.367/.495 at AA and AAA last season, really turning it on after the A’s acquired him from St. Louis. With Sacramento, Wallace hit .302/.365/.505 with 9 homers in just 182 at bats.

While Brandon Morrow has the potential to become a top-end starting pitcher, we haven’t seen much yet, with his greatest success coming in 2008, out of the bullpen. If he becomes a front line starter, than obviously that is a great deal to be giving up. If he ends up in the bullpen… well, I prefer Brandon League anyway.

League, 26, had a 4.58 ERA last season, but he has the skill set to close. A hard throwing righty, League sits around 94-96 MPH with his fastball, and has no trouble missing bats. He also demonstrated good control last season, and a fantastic 3.62 K/BB rate. Additionally, homeruns should not be a problem, as League keeps the ball on the ground almost 60% of the time. His xFIP in 2009 was 3.16, and as I mentioned in my AL East bullpen preview, League was arguably the best pitcher in Toronto’s bullpen. He wasn’t likely to get a shot there, but with David Aardsma’s control and extreme flyball tendencies, he’s a disaster waiting to happen. It’s very possible League ends up closing in 2010 and beyond.

At this point, we really don’t know who the prospect is though. We’ll see. Assuming it’s a solid MLB caliber prospect though, I think the M’s pulled of a good trade here. I’m a huge fan of League.

New York Yankees:

Closer - Mariano Rivera.
Setup - Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, David Robertson?
Best pitcher - Rivera.

Rivera is as good ever. In 2009, Rivera’s ERA was under 2 for the sixth time in seven seasons, as he posted a 72/12 k to walk ratio, the second strait year his K/BB rate was 6+. He is 40 years old, but he just seems to get better every year. That said, their are several elite setup guys on this team. Recent comments from Brian Cashman indicate that, if the Yankees sign another starter, Chamberlain and Hughes will compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, leaving the other one to likely setup Rivera. Chamberlain’s career numbers as a reliever are tremendous, with a 1.50 ERA and K rate of almost 11. Hughes’ as a reliever? A 1.40 ERA and a K/BB rate of 5. Lesser known setup option David Robertson also has an electric skill set. In 43 2/3 innings, he struck out 63 batters, for a K rate of 12.98, and a FIP of 3.05. Robertson could be worth rostering just for his ERA and Ks, but in the even that Chamberlain and Hughes end up on the rotation, Robertson would be the main setup guy, and his value would increase.

Can Daniel Bard close?

Boston Red Sox:

Closer - Jon Papelbon.
Setup - Daniel Bard.
Best pitcher - Papelbon.

His ERA may have improved in 2009, but a year after posting a near 10 K/BB rate, Papelbon struggled with his control and FB% for much of 2009. Still, his K rate stayed north of 10, and a FIP of 3.05, and an ERA of 1.85 show he’s still pitching at a high level. There has been talk that Papelbon will be moved this off-season, and that Daniel Bard will take his place. While I don’t think they’ll just give up on one of the best closers in the league over the past few seasons, Bard could handle it. The fireballer had a K rate of 11.5 in 2009, with a FIP of 3.38 and xFIP of 3.25. His average fastball velocity? 97.3. He improves his control and he could be one of the best closers in baseball. Don’t worry too much about Papelbon, but Bard is certainly worth an AL only shot for his Ks, ERA, and closing potential.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Closer - Rafael Soriano.
Setup - JP Howell.
Best pitcher - Soriano.

JP Howell spent much of last season as the Rays closer, saving 17 games with a 2.84 ERA. His K rate and groundball abilities make him a solid closing candidate, but the Rays went out and traded for former Braves closer/setup-man Rafael Soriano. Soriano has the skills to be an elite closer, with a 2.54 FIP last year, a 12.13 K rate, and a sub-3 xFIP. However, he spent much of 2004, 2005, and 2008 on the disabled list with a variety of injuries. For that reason, Soriano is a less than perfect fantasy option, and JP Howell is definitely still worth owning in AL only leagues. Former closer Grant Balfour is also an intriguing option given his ability to miss bats and previous success in the role. If anyone else emerges in this bullpen, keep an eye on the situation, because Soriano is a huge injury risk.

Baltimore Orioles:

Closer - Mike Gonzalez.
Setup - Kam Mickolio, Jim Johnson?
Best pitcher - Gonzalez.

The second former Brave on this list, Gonzalez can also dominate at times but has struggled with health. With 3.31 and 3.70 xFIPs the past two seasons, and around 11 K/9 , there’s no reason to believe he can’t perform at a high level. Past Gonzalez though, we get into a whole bunch of mediocrity. One intriguing name is 25 year old Kam Mickolio. Mickolio spent most of 2009 in AAA, where he posted a 3.11 FIP in 35 relief appearances. Once promoted to the Major Leagues, Mickolio struck out 14 batters in 13 2/3 innings with a 2.58 FIP. The 6-9, 256 pound righty throws a mid-90s fastball more than 80% of the time, and also mixes in a slider in the mid-80s. Worth watching if Gonzalez goes down. Finally, Jim Johnson ended last season as the Orioles main closer, but given his poor performance I doubt he gets another crack at it.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Closer - Jason Frasor.
Setup – Scott Downs.
Best pitcher - Downs.

This is the most uncertain bullpen situation in the division. When BJ Ryan landed on the DL early in the year, Scott Downs took over as closer. However, Downs battled his own injuries, and Jason Frasor ended the season as the Jays closer, dominating down the stretch. Ryan is out of the picture, and it seems to be between Downs and Frasor at this point. Downs probably has the slightly better skill set. In 2009, he struck out 43 batters while only walking 13, inducing groundballs at an awesome 55.7%. His xFIP was 3.18. Frasor also has a nice skill set, with a K rate of 8.74, nice control, and a 2.99 FIP. However, his flyball tendency makes him a little more prone to blow-ups. We’ll pencil Frasor in as the closer, as he ended there last season, but it could really be either one. Whoever gets the job to start the season is worth a good investment, especially Downs, as both are good enough to keep the job. Brandon League was also very good down the stretch, so he could end up in the mix.