American League:

MVP: Mark Teixeira – With Arod out for a couple of months Teixeira will have to step up. He will. Last year he made massive, massive strides in plate discipline, walking more than he struck out and raising his CT% to 83. He reached a career high OBP, and the power is still there. 40 homers may be a stretch, but he has the power skills to reach it. He also plays a rock solid firstbase and the voters love guys from playoff teams (the Yankees will be one). Long shots: Arod (even if he misses a month), Hamilton/Kinsler, Dusting Pedroia.

Cy Young: CC Sabathia – Ok, another Yankee, but who do you want me to pick? Sabathia won the AL Cy Young 2 years ago, and he was just as good last year. Batters swung at a third of the pitches he threw outside the zone ranking him second in the bigs, he struck out about a batter an inning and walked about 2 a game. He gave up .7 homers per 9 innings – the same exact number he gave up in 2007 – but he also saw a better GB% and an unlucky LD%. Expect another season with near perfect stats. Sub 3 ERA, fantastic WHIP, 20 wins, this guy is gold. Long shots: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Fransisco Liriano, Josh Beckett.

ROTY: Matt Wieters – The season Matt Wieters put up in the minors last year was unbelievable and he can already destroy big league pitching. He’s polished with Mike Piazza like upside, and he’s a great defensive catcher too. Second on my list is Gordan Bekckham. Also can cream MLB pitching at the second base position. David Price is also to be considered. If someone else won, I’d be pretty shocked.

National League:

MVP: Albert Pujols. Enough said. The best player in the majors by far, one of the greatest all time, Pujols is the best offensive and defensive first basemen in baseball. It doesn’t matter if he was hitting in a lineup with 8 Bill Bergen’s, he’d still win the MVP. Don’t even play the season, just give it to him April first. VERY long shot candidate: David Wright, Chipper Jones, Manram.

Cy Young: Brandon Webb – Last year Webb was my Cy Young favorite going into the final month of the season. He collapsed and Lincecum stepped up, so Timmy ended up with the better numbers. This year I think Webb can keep it going. This is really a wide open race in my opinion, with a couple of pitchers having a legit shot to take this home. My money’s on Webb though. Long shots: Danny Harren, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, Derek Lowe, Rich Harden, Cole Hamels.

ROTY: Jordan Schafer – Drafted him in my minor league draft and was rewarded when he won the ceterfield job, killed the ball in spring training, and hit a homer in his first MLB at bat. He’s got every skill you look for on offense – patience, solid contact skills, power, and speed – and a good defensive centerfield. Nothing should keep this kid from stardom. Long shots: Cameron Maybin, Matt Gamel, Dexter Fowler, Jordan Zimmerman, Thomas Hanson. VERY long shot: Steven Strasburg (ok most likely 2010 candidate).

2007: .300, 24 HR, 22 SB, 82 RBI, 86 Runs.
2008: .273, 9 HR, 44 SB, 66 RBI, 85 Runs.

The thing is, I don’t think Upton regressed. Not at all. Sure his power numbers plummeted, and he hit almost 30 points lower, but in my opinion most of that was due to injuries. While he carries a little extra risk, I honestly think Upton will be a top 5 pick in 2010. Let’s look at the individual cats:

Speed: This is one place where Upton actually improved over 2007, and that shouldn’t be a surprise. While he gets hammered for the strikeouts, Upton gets on base. A lot. His OBP over the past 2 years is .384. Few posses his combination of on base skills and raw speed. Expect 40+ steals.

Power: This is where everyone says Upton regressed. Sure, he hit 15 less homers and his SLG dropped 107 points, but there is a clear reason for that. Last year Upton was hurt most of the season and it showed. His GB% shot up by 7.6 points. This is totally understandable. But how do we know he still has raw power?

Average HR distance:
2007: 394.8
2008: 406.8

That means a lot. In 2008 not only did BJ improve his raw power numbers, but he actually ranked in the top 10 in the league. His average HR went more than 8 feet further than AL home run leader Miguel Cabrera. Also worth noting that he hit 37 doubles last year, 12 more than the season before. 30 homers well within reach.

Batting average: Some regression was expected here just because he got pretty lucky in 2007. That said, Upton improved tremendously and with his amazing combination of power and speed I think he can post a .300 BA again. In 2007 his biggest weakness was his 68% contact rate. In 2008, that jumped all the way to 75%. Of course he still doesn’t make optimal contact, but 75% is very, very ok. For example, Alex Rodriguez’s CT% since 2004 is 77% and he hasn’t once had that over 80%. He’s also hitting .303 over that timeframe. If you have power and you have speed, a 75% CT rate is OK. I expect him to hit in the .280-.290 range, but that’s not bad at all. If he puts up the power-speed that he should, a .290 BA makes him a top 5 pick. There’s also tons of room for him to improve. The kind of batting eye he displays makes it possible that he will significantly improve his CT%. If he gets that over 80% watch out.

Overall if he were still a MI he’d basically be Hanely Ramirez (at least that would be his upside). As it stands, I think he could be a .300 30/30 outfielder within the next couple of years, and that would easily make him a top 5 pick.

Also have to mention the added risk. He did have shoulder surgery in the offseason which could keep him hitting the ball on the ground. If it does, expected a repeat of 2008. Is that all that bad? No. A .275 hitter with 10 and 40 hitting in that lineup has a whole lot of value, and is still 3rd round type player. But that is downside compared to his Carlos Beltran type upside. He will start the season on the DL, but that is for a relatively minor hand injury so it shouldn’t effect his production in 2009.

Let’s start with the whole velocity issue. In my opinion, it is absolutely ridiculous. Sure he isn’t throwing mid 90s anymore, but when was the last time he threw in the mid 90s? While I don’t have full data going back to his days in Boston, I would guess it was something like 2002 or 2003, maybe even earlier. This is the data I do have:

2005: 88.0
2006: 87.1
2007: 86.2 (limited innings)
2008: 87.7

There was a slight trend downwards, but 2008 was not far off from his previous 3 years in New York. In fact, his fastball was about as fast as it was in 2005 when his ERA was 2.82. His fastball velocity should not limit his ability to get people out.

There is something that can be found in his pitch data though. Pedro Martinez doesn’t throw his slider as often. In 2005 he threw it 12.5% of the time. In 2008, he threw it just 1.6% of the time. He has made a bit of a transition, throwing 7.3% cutters (compared to below 1% in 2005), a few more change ups, and a few more fastballs.

This is where I see an argument opening up. Sliders put a lot of stress on the arm, and Pedro, coming back from Tommy John surgery, had every reason to put away that slider. Health wise it’s a slam dunk, as each pitch puts a different strain on your arm, so throwing a lot of different pitches can keep your arm healthy. What does this all mean? Pedro’s drop in K rate could be real.

But lets move on from pitch selection, as many, many pitchers have made successful pitch selection transitions.

One of my favorite things to look at in evaluating a pitcher is how disciplined batters are against them, and when we look at these numbers we do see Martinez wasn’t exactly the same pitcher in 2008.

First of all, batters swung at his pitches less. They were seeing them better, and when they didn’t like the pitch they didn’t swing. This is a disturbing realization about his stuff. It just wasn’t as good. They also made FAR more contact, at a rate of almost 80%. This isn’t good. They swing at less of his pitches, but still end up making more contact.

We need to put this in context to understand it. Pedro Martinez has always been around the middle in a lot of these stats. For example, his 47.7 swing% from 2005 would place him around 40th in the league. This says a lot about him as a pitcher. Some pitchers get strikeouts by making batters swing at pitches they can’t hit (Cole Hamels, Johan Santana, Randy Johnson) while others get strikeouts by making batters take pitches in the strikezone (Mike Mussina, Edison Volquez, Oliver Perez). Pedro Martinez on the other hand has such a range of stuff, he can do both. The trend of batters swinging at less pitches is hard to read. On one hand, not having that slider anymore means he has to fool people with a changeup or cutter, so becoming a swing-less pitcher is maybe a good idea. On the other hand, it seems like people are seeing his pitches pretty well.

On that note, let’s look at the CT% against he has put up. His 2005 level would have placed him top 5 in the league, however he is now around 80%. Without the slide, it is blatantly obvious that Martinez isn’t the same pitcher, as he won’t miss the amazing number of bats he used to. That said, he can still succeed with this kind of K rate. Batters made less contact off Pedro than off of Josh Becket, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Ben Sheets, and Justin Verlander (and I’m sure many other great pitchers). They may be seeing the ball better, but he still has nasty stuff and his K rate should be around 8.

So far we have established that Pedro Martinez’s drop in K rate is real. But what does it matter? He still can strike out upwards of 8 guys per 9 innings, a very good rate. The biggest problem, by a large margin, is the massive rise in walk rate he suffered. This is where the injuries come in. Pitchers who experience hamstring injuries often have issues with control when coming back, and Pedro is no different. Before last year he hadn’t posted a BB rate above 3 since 1995 with the Expos. Historically when pitchers get older their control is one of the skills that stays constant, so I’m willing to bet Pedro will bounce back to his career average 2.5 BB rate next season. This is obviously speculation, but it’s good speculation.

There are some other factors, first of which is injuries. Pedro wont ever be confused with Cal Ripken or Lou Gehrig here, but there is some reason to like his chances of staying healthy. He could suffer another leg injury, the kind that derailed his 2008 season completely, but so could any pitcher. He’s had a history of leg injuries, but it’s way overblown. His arm however should be fine. He throws an 88 MPH fastball which shouldn’t put too much strain on his arm, doesn’t throw too many sliders, has quite a few different pitches, and throws a lot of stress free changeups. He proved his arm can hold up after TJ, and I think he is actually one of the safer bets to stay arm injury free.

Then what about his age? He’s not that old. He’s 37, a full 8 years younger than Randy Johnson, who just last year put up a K/BB rate around 4. Pitchers have pitched this late in their careers (Johnson, Clemens, Mussina, Maddux) and with his pitch selection and overall craftiness, Martinez has a shot to join that list.

So what should we expect? I’d say K rate of about 8, BB rate of about 2.5, his GB% should hover around 40% and his ERA should be in the mid 3′s with a good WHIP. All possible. And who does this remind us of? Umm yeah Johan Santana, who put up almost identical stats last year, aside from a lucky ERA. And Johan is also getting up there with a declining K rate and some injury concerns. I’m not saying pick Pedro in the second round, or trade for him giving up Johan, but I’m saying his skill set is still at the elite level. He is a risk of course. He could pull another hammy and his season (or career) could be done. Maybe I’m wrong and he doesn’t get that control back. And maybe the absolute abandonment of the slider destroys his K rate next year. But I just don’t see how any of these things are that likely to happen. As soon as he signs on somewhere (how could he not?) pick him up, draft him in the late rounds, or spend a buck on him in your auction. You (probably) wont be sorry you did, and worse case you lose a late round flyer and pick someone else up in his place.

This guy won someone their league in 2008

So last year someone in your AL only auction, or mixed league draft, or whatever league you are in picked up Cliff Lee for a buck or two or in the last round. He went on to win 22 games with an ERA of 2.54. To figure out who “the next Cliff Lee” is we have to understand what Cliff Lee actually is. 

- A 29/30 year old starting pitcher. Not young, but not too old either. 

- Has had past success, but a couple of bad seasons since have knocked his value down close to zero. 
- Ks a healthy 6.5-7 batters a game but he’s no flame thrower so that wont get him noticed.
- History of good control. 
- Solid GB%. 

Now that last ones a bit tricky. Lee’s GB% was a solid but not spectacular 45% last year, however that’s about 10% more than in any previous season so we can safely say he wouldn’t have made this list pre-2008. Pitchers don’t just add 10% to their GB rate. What Lee did there was unusual and we really don’t need to account for it.

So not your, not too old either accounts for a good  number of the pitchers in the big leagues but #2 is where a few names pop up. Jeremy Bonderman and Kevin Millwood, although neither is exactly in that Cliff Lee age range, they are between 26 (JB) and 34 (KM) years old, so neither is a prospect or really getting up there in age either. We’ll move on to #3 with these two. 

A healthy k rate of around 7. Bonderman certainly fits this description well. In 2006 his K rate was 8.5, although it fell to 7.5 in 2007. 2008′s fall in K rate was do too injury. We can say that Jeremy Bonderman has a healthy K rate. Millwood also fits. K rates of 6.6, 6.4, 6.7 last few years wont get him noticed but wont hurt him either. 

#4 says history of good control. For Bonderman his BB rate was consistently under 3 between 2005-2008. Millwood is interesting. His K rates in 05 and 06 were 2.4 and 2.2 which happens to be very, very good. That number jumped to 3.5 in 2007, but went back down to 2.6 in 2008 including a ridiculously good 1.8 in the second half. I’m confident that both have control.

Now lets go to the final qualifier, a solid GB%. Millwood is a no brainer here, with GB%’s of 45%, 46%, and 41% the last few years. He fits right into Cliff Lee range, and his HR rate in Arlington (1.0 each of the past 3 years) is great. Bonderman on the other hand has been up and down HR rate wise. The last two years it’s been 1.1 and 1.2, while in 05 and 06 it was at 1.0 and .8. That might be a concern for some, but look at his GB%, consistently around 47% his entire career. He’s a solid GB pitcher that is sure to see a rebound in his HR rate.

So both of these guys have good K rates, great control, and a good GB%. Why are they so underrated? Well lets start with Bonderman. In 2007 his K rate dropped just a little bit. His HR rate skyrocketed (even though his GB% stayed above average) and his ERA was north of 5. This was entirely unsupported by his skill set, which still said he could put up a 3.5 ERA or better with a fantastic WHIP. 2008 was a different story. He picked up a BB for almost every K and his HR rate stayed high. He was eventually sent to the DL, which really explains his overall struggles. A healthy and less-unlucky Jeremy Bonderman is still a guy with a great K rate, great control, and a good GB%, a top 10 starting pitcher in the making. 

Millwood actually has a similar (although much longer) career to Cliff Lee. He was always a good pitcher, and one great year (2005 in Cleveland) got him signed to a big contract in Texas. There his ERA spiked despite K’ing 3 times as many as he BB and maintaining an OK HR rate. That was followed by a horrible 2007 in which his BB rate jumped by 1.3 and his K rate continued to fall. He may have looked done, but that was partially do to injuries and last year he showed that same skill set. 6.7 K/9, and a walk rate well under 3 (under 2 in the second half) as well as that solid HR rate. If not for a lot of bad luck, and a poor first half, Millwood would have been a very solid fantasy contributer. 

So who would I rather have? I’d have to take Bonderman. He has a history of elite skill sets and he’s playing in a more pitching friendly ballpark. He also happens to be about 7 years younger. But Millwood isn’t bad either. If he’s healthy, and avoids the bad luck, he’s basically a 34 year old version of Kevin Slowey and who wouldn’t take that. Of course he doesn’t have Slowey’s added bonus of a great ballpark and defense, but he also has a better lineup. He could post a sub-4 ERA with a great WHIP and with those guys hitting for him 15-18 wins making him a massive sleeper in AL only leagues.

For mixed league owners: 

Hank Blalock (14.6% owned in ESPN leagues) – If he’s healthy Blalock should be owned in every league. Combine 07 and 08 – that’s over 460 ABs – Blalock is hitting over .290 with 22 homers and he’s hitting right in the middle of the best lineup in baseball. He qualifies at third and is the obvious choice to pick up if available. 

Ian Stewart (9.1% owned in ESPN leagues) – When you lose Alex Rodriguez for a month you need some power and it doesn’t get too much better than this guy. If he grabs a starting spot he has real power and plays in Coors. Bad BA, but in like 50-100 ABs that’s not going to kill you. 

Ty Wiggington (6.7%) – .280/20 production and he’s not getting drafted in most leagues. 
The third basemen for the White Sox (0.1% owned in ESPN leagues) – Whoever it is. Fields, Betimit, or Viciedo. All guys with great bats, and one of them will get their first starting job (or second for Fields). 

For AL only owners:

Cody Ransom (0.1% owned in ESPN leagues) – Ransom is a 30 year old career minor leaguer, but one who happens to have 20 homer pop and a starting job. I fully expect him to suck but in an AL only league getting a starting guy with some power playing in a good lineup… well that’s ok. 

Going into the year my projection for Arod was in the .300/40 range with maybe 20 steals. Now I’m thinking .300 (or a bit lower) with maybe 35 homers and 10-15 steals. Personally I still think he’s a (risky) early second rounder with those numbers. If I’m drafting in the second half of the first round in a straight daft I grab Arod on the way back (if I can) and then one of these above guys (or another late round 3B), the combination of which will probably add up to high first round type numbers.

This is a fantasy blog and in fantasy leagues minor leaguers don’t put up stats. Neither do college guys, or for that matter high schoolers. But you want to know who these prospects are before others to get them in dynasty leagues and the draft is one of the more interesting real baseball topics.

So, my top 21 as of right now.

1. Steven Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State – I’ll come right out and say it. Steven Strasburg is the best pitching prospect I have ever seen. Strasburg has nasty stuff. His fastball was sitting in the high 90s last year, and in his most recent start he hit 102 seven times! He also has a ridiculous slider and a good change up. His college production has been unreal. 12.3 K rate, 1.48 BB rate, and 2 more strikeouts per walk than David Price in his sophomore season. His home run rate was also a ridiculous .09 per nine innings. He burst onto the scene last year with a 23 strikeout game and was the first college pitcher to make the Olympic team since minor leaguers were allowed in.  At the Olympics he was simply amazing, almost no hitting the Netherlands and striking out 11 guys in 7 innings. The only concern with Strasburg is his mechanics, which are very similar to that of Mark Prior. The big difference here is that his arm doesn’t get up quite as high into the dangerous “reverse w” position that Prior’s did. His velocity has improved every year in college so that is also a good sign. He has more upside than any pitching prospect I have ever seen, and he is also very, very polished with great command of all his pitches. He’ll be dominating big league pitchers by 2011 at the latest.

2. Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, North Carolina - Ackley is my top college position player by a decent margin. He doesn’t have the amazing bat or power of your prototypical top college hitter like a Pedro Alvarez or Mark Teixeira but his overall skill set is very impressive and he has some room to improve. Ackley’s batting line last year (.405/.495/.599) is very impressive. He has a very good approach to hitting as well as good gap power. He’s very athletic (evident by his 18 steals last year), and this athleticism will allow him to move to center field to start the year. We will have to see how he does deffensivly in center field, but he certainly has 20-20ish upside and is a very good pure hitter who will consistently post a good BA/OBP/SLG line and be extremely valuable to a major league team, especially if he can play the center field position well.

3. Grant Green, SS, USC - Green could be #2 on this list by draft time, but I just don’t think he’s as good a hitter (yet) as Dustin Ackley. One of Green’s biggest strength is the position he plays as it’s hard to develop good shortstops. Green has great range, and is often compared to Troy Toluwitski deffensivly. He has the glove to stick at SS, which is a massive, massive plus in his favor. Green is also a good hitter. He’s pretty athletic with good power, but he’s not very polished at the plate. He’s not, which will obviously hurt his BA/OBP. Green has a lot of upside and is a true 5 tool player at shortstop. While he may take longer than most college hitters to develop, it should be well worth the wait.

4. Andy Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State – I’m a huge fan of Oliver and I will make the argument that he’s the second best pitcher in this draft, though I’m almost positive Alex White gets picked higher. He is a big lefty with good stuff which is always a big plus. He throws a fastball in the 92-94 MPH range with good sink as well as a good curveball and changeup. He has a very repeatable throwing motion and his college numbers are very good. He has the K/GB combo that’s hard not to love and solid control. Overall he has tremendous upside, and his college success makes him a top 5 prospect.

5. Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth – Higher than most but let me explain. First of all this guy does have a lot of talent and a ton of upside. He was consider right up there with Matusz last year for the top college arm in the country, and he really has nasty stuff. He has a mid to high 90s fast ball, a very good slider, and a solid change. He commands all those pitches fairly well. He is also much further along the development curve than anyone else in this class, probably even more developed than any pitcher that came out last year. He has 4 years of college ball and a year+ in independent baseball, making him a safe bet to be the first guy from this class in the major leagues, with a debut in late 2009 not out of the question. While his agent is still Scott Boras, and he didn’t sign last year, it is unlikely that he will hold out yet another year. He’ll probably be the 3rd-5th pitcher off the board, somewhere in the 5-15 range, however I really think this spot is deserved.

6. Alex White, RHP, UNC - This is pretty low for him as far as most people are concerned, but here’s my reasoning. He can’t be over Strasburg because Strasburg’s, well, god. I can’t justify him over Ackley or Green because athletic up the middle guys with tremendous bats are hard to find. Him and Crow is a toss up, although I think White is basically to this draft what Aaron Crow was last year, and Crow is further along in his development with maybe a little better stuff (although it could be argued either way). Still he’s a top 10 prospect, and has a 95% chance to be the second pitcher taken in the draft. He has a low to mid 90s fastball with a lot of movement on it. He also has a couple good secondary pitches, specifically his above average slider. As can be expected with a top college pitcher he has a good amount of polish and with that fastball/slider combo reminds me just a little bit of Rick Porcello. I doubt White falls out of the top three, and I can’t blame any team for wanting to take him.

7. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri – The fact that Gibson is the fifth pitcher on the board tells you how many good college arms there will at the top of this years draft. Gibson has great size at 6’6, and three good pitches that he commands well. His fastball is more about movement than velocity, as he throws it in the low 90s with plenty of sink. He also throws a good slider and changeup. Gibson size and stuff are certainly pluses, and he has had a very good college career, but I might not be quite as high on him as some. Still, very good college arm and a top 10 prospect.

8. Donovan Tate, CF, Cartersville Georgia (HS) – Tate is my top high school prospect, and while I’m not a huge fan of most high school prospects, Tate’s upside is just too ridiculous to ignore. Tate is a true 5 tool player. While Tate is certainly a center fielder first and foremost he does have a fastball that reaches the mid 90s on the mound, and that arm should translate well to the outfield. He is crazy fast and athletic and has the potential to be a very good defensive outfielder at the big league level. He’s a very raw hitter but he has a ton of power upside coming out of high school has plenty of time to develop. Tate has ridiculous upside but he’s also very far away. He needs to improve his approach at the plate and in the field. If he can, the sky is the limit (or is it?).

9. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley California (HS) - Matzek is my top high school pitcher, although there are a couple other guys that could claim  this spot. He’s got good height at 6’3 and he’s a lefty so he’s going to be drafted fairly high. His fastball isn’t overpowering but it does sit in the low 90s. He also has a few good secondary pitches, including a good curveball and decent slider, and a developing change up that could end up being one of his better pitches. He’s a high school pitcher so by definition he’s not very polished but compared to the other high school arms he’s probably the most likely to move quickly though a system. If he can polish off that slider and curve and develop an average to above average change up he will be a front line major league starter. He’s just got so much going for him.

10. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul - Sheppers is a very interesting prospect. On pure stuff he might be the second beast pitcher in this draft, and his upside is that of an ace. He has a mid 90s fastball, a good cruveball, and a developing changeup. That said there are a lot of red flags here. First of all is his shoulder injury. That injury dropped him almost a full round in 2008, and was a major factor in the Pirates decision not to offer him a huge above slot bonus. Scheppers is also very raw as far as college pitchers go, without the command of guys like Strasburg and White. Overall he has tremendous upside and is likely to be a first round pick, however he could drop because of injury concerns. As a Yankees fan I’d love him to fall to the Yankees, however if he makes some improvements this year, he is unlikely to.

11. Austin Maddox, C, Eagle’s View Acedemy Florida (HS) – Maddox is the top catcher in high school, as well as the entire draft, with a great bat and good defense. He has a great arm, and throws in the mid 90s on the mound. He is tall (6’4) so he might have to move, however he does have a good glove and his bat will play anywhere. He has a good approach to the plate with plenty of bat speed a power. He’s as close to a 5 tool guy as your ever going to see at catcher, and reminds me a bit of Jesus Montero (although he’s much better defensively).

12. Robbie Shields, SS, Florida Southern – Shields just bairly misses out on being a top 10 prospect in my book. He has a solid glove and should be able to stay at shortstop but it’s really his bat that makes him a high first round pick. He has the ability to hit for average and power and as long as he plays solid defense he will be one of the better shortstop prospects in baseball.

13. Matt Purke, LHP, Klein Texas (HS) - Purke has all kinds of talent, but he’s not nearly as complete a pitcher as Matzek right now, which keeps him from being the top high school arm. He has a low to mid 90s fastball and a ridiculous slider and is certainly up there as one of the top high school arms.

14. Matt Graham, RHP, Oak Ridge Texas (HS) –  Graham throws his fastball in the mid 90s. He also has a good curveball, and commands both pitches surprisingly well. He has plummeted on a lot of boards due to poor showings in the showcases and he really doesn’t throw a third pitch so he will have to develop one at some point in the minors to reach his ceiling. That ceiling is very, very high though. If he continues to struggle though, no way he makes this list in a few months.

15. Kentrail Davis, OF, Tennessee - Ketrail Davis can hit! He may be only 5’9 but he has plenty of power, and should be able to rack up doubles at the big league level while still hitting a few home runs. He has a great approach to the plate. He’s also very athletic and a good baserunner. He’s only a sophomore and his agent is Scott Boras so he could fall, but the fact is he has a big league bat and he will be drafted somewhere in the first round.

16. Alex Wilson, RHP, Texas A&M – He has top 10 type upside but there are some big concerns with this guy. He’s already had TJ surgery which has hurt his stock in a big way. Personally I think the success rate on TJ being what it is, he’s still a very good prospect. He has great stuff with a mid 90s fastball, great slider, and average changeup. His upside is ridiculous, although picking him is risky.

17. Ryan Wheeler, 1B, Loyola Marymount - I really like Wheeler. He’s a classic ”Moneyball” guy. A good college hitter, plays good defense at first. He doesn’t have great power upside but he has a good approach at the plate and some gap power. The guy just hits and plays a good firstbase so while he doesn’t have the upside of, for example, Brett Jackson, he is a much safer prospect.

18. Matt Davidson, 3B, Yucaipa Callifornia (HS) – Davidson has an impressive bat but he’s not a great athlete and doesn’t really have a position. Power wise Davidson is one of the top prospects in the country, and he does have more polish than most prep bats. While I’ve seen him ranked  lower, he is deserving of a top 15 pick because much like Maddox his bat will play anywhere.

19. Ben Tootle, RHP, Jacksonville State – A lot like Wilson, he’s got great stuff but too many red flags to be a top 10-15 pick. He’s go mid to high 90s velocity, and a good slider, but aside from that he really doesn’t have much. He’ll probably end up as a reliever, which hurts his draft stock somewhat, although he profiles as a Joba Chamberlain type stud closer with a power fastball-slider combo so he’s still a first round pick.

20. Mychal Givens, SS/RHP, Plant Florida (HS) – I’m not nearly as high on Givens as most, and I really don’t see why he’s being talked about as a top 5 pick or as potentially the top high schooler on the board. Givens is a two way prospect with a low 90s fastball and some secondary pitches but I never really like putting these two way guys on the mound, and most major league teams agree. Givens could be a solid SS prospect as he’s got the range and athleticism to stick, but for a high schooler being talked about as a top 10 guy he doesn’t have much upside with the bat. He could develop into a quality shortstop, but from what I’ve seen (which is limited) he doesn’t profile as a top half of the first round guy. If your going to take a risk on a high schooler, pick someone with big upside. That said, he can stick at SS and his bat is solid so he’s a top 20 guy.

21. Brett Jackson, CF, Callifornia - Jackson is an intriguing prospect. Simply the fact that he can stick in centerfield makes him worth noting, but the offensive upside is there. He’s a good athlete with an above average arm in centerfield. The reason he cracks the top 20 is that power upside. It’s not there yet, but most believe it will be. Not my kind of college hitter, but a good amount of upside and he can play up the middle.

My first positional rankings are out and they are a little bit unusual but the catcher position is rather unusual to start with. One thing I have to say: there is no excuse not to own a good catcher this year. You don’t have to spend an early pick on McCann, Martin, or Mauer. Napoli, Wieters, Doumit, and Soto are all going pretty low for their production and they’d all contribute big time to an offense. So, here we go:

1. Brian McCann – Fantasy wise it’s tough to top McCann. He’s a .300 hitter with pop and he catches. The thing is he’s just getting better. At 24 last year his SLG jumped almost 100 points and while the HRs didn’t follow as much as they could have, the power it there. He’s still in that early development stage in his career, a couple years away from his prime, and I think 30 home runs is in his future.

2. Mike Napoli – This guy has serious power and he’s just entering his prime. Sure, 20 homers doesn’t seem like THAT much. But that’s in 227 at bats. If he had as many at bats as Ryan Doumit, he’d have hit 40 bombs. This guy is kind of the Adam Dunn of catchers. I mean a power index over 200? He has ridiculous power, but he’s never going to hit for that high of a batting average. He could hit .270 with 30 or (a lot) more home runs. Hard to put him over McCann simply because McCann is a .300 hitter that also should hit 25-30 home runs, but he could really turn some heads this year.

3. Matt Wieters – If he were guaranteed a starting job in spring training, he’d be my #1 catcher, and in a year or two he will be FAR and away tops on this list. The problem is he might not be up till May. But he will start. Baltimore is going no where, Ramon Hernandez isn’t great, and this guy can flat out hit. The highly regarded prospect hit .355 with 27 homers through 2 levels last year, and that’s in 437 at bats at 22. If he plays, he’s a .300/30 guy at catcher. Once he gets into his prime, he’s a first round lock. .320/40 potential. I am confident and will stand by that prediction. Let your league mates draft the proven commodities, that minor league line is proven enough for me.

4. Ryan Doumit – Doumit’s year last year was legit, but where he is in his development is a bit of an unkown. On one hand he’s a lot older than you would think – he was 27 last year. This probably limits his power potential. But last year was the first year he really got full playing time, so I could see his power going up next year to the 20 home runs range. He’s a legit .300 hitter with good contact and power. I really like Doumit going into next year, much more than say Joe Mauer because he could hit for the same average and chip in 10-15 more homers.

5. Russell Martin – Russell Martin has a lot of things going for him. First of all he’s gonna be 26 next year and we all now how big that can be. He’s got the ability to go 20-20, and getting that kind of power speed from a catcher is ridiculous. But I’m worried. First of all the power growth that we saw before last season is gone. His power index dropped 35 points and his SLG 73. While you might dismiss that as purely an off year, he has caught 145 games each of the past 2 years. If the Dodgers are careful this is a 20-20 .285 guy. If not.. let’s just say I’d stay away from him this year.

6. Geovany Soto – Soto’s numbers last year were really good. .285 and 23 from a catcher? I’ll take that. He’s also 26 and his power numbers are only going to go up. Probably wont his .285 next year with twice as many strikeouts as walks, only solid power, and no speed, but he’s not going to hit .250 either. Expect something in the .270/20 – .280/25 range.

7. Joe Mauer – I’m not a huge fan of his. He is a .300 hitter, there is no reason to doubt another .320 season. But he doesn’t do all that much else. He’s hit 10 home runs once. He’s still 25, so there’s still time for the power to develop, but right now he’s just going to hit for an empty BA and contribute in RBI and runs.

8. Victor Martinez – Vmart is going to be interesting this year. He was hurt last season so we don’t have much to work with. A move to first base would help his bat, and as long as we can keep him at catcher that would be great. But staying at catcher could kill him as he’s on the wrong side of 30 and already caught a whole bunch of games. He’s still a .290 hitter and he can still put up mid-20s in home runs with tons of RBI. That said he’s getting older and he really shouldn’t be catching any more.

9. Bengie Molina – Fairly consistent. He’s got 20 homer type pop and he doesn’t strikeout which is a good combo for a catcher. He’s also painfully slow and aging. Those innings could finally catch up to him this year, but he could still be a .285/20 guy.

10. Chris Iannetta – Not gonna hit for a high average, but his power is getting there. His SLG jumped over 150 points last season, and 26 year olds with pop in Coors are very valuable. He could be in the mid 20s in home runs hitting in a solid lineup but that batting average will always hold him back.

11.Jorge Posada – He was never going to live up to his highly lucky 2007, but injuries wiped out most of his season. Still could go .280/20 and hits in the middle of a productive lineup. If he’s playing in spring training games, that’s a good sign, and I’d keep an eye on him.

12. Chris Snyder – He’s a good sleeper this year and you know what your gonna get with him. Poor batting average and some power. Similar to Iannetta, except with less upside, older, and outside of Coors.

13.Kelly Shoppach – So many .260/20 catchers (and that’s not a bad thing) drop him down to 13, especially now that it seems as though Victor Martinez will catch to start the year. I still think Vmart moves to first base or gets hurt. I still think he goes .260/20. But so could any of the 4 guys ahead of him (and more) and they all have starting jobs right now.

14. JR Towles – The potential is here. His minor league numbers show us a catcher that can post double didget homers and steals with a .300 average, and at his age the power could get better. He hit .300 last year after being sent back to the minors, but he did get sent back to the minors. Someday we could see that 20-20 .300 season, but it’s not there yet.

15. Jeff Clement – Can I say no one? Seriously no one I want past Towles. I might as well leave the lineup spot empty. Oh well. Clement was bad last year, but he did put up .280/20 in the minor leagues and he’s still 25. Some upside. I wouldn’t expect much.

Just how good can he be?

With all the hype around David Price and Matt Wieters it’s easy to forget that amazing crop of offensive rookies we had last year. Forgetting them would be dangerous though as quite a few are poised for a break. Here I’m going to rank the top few second year guys. Some of these guys had a little service time in 07, but nothing much. 

1. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays – After Arod and Wright this guy is probably the third guy taken off the board at the hot corner, and for good reason too. Longoria hit .272 with 27 bombs last year but that’s just the start. He will easily pass 30 homers on his way to 35 next year and his average will improve. He was actually much better in the second half, aside from a high GB% that dragged down his homers. This guy is probably a third round pick. 35 homer upside, batting average has a lot of room to improve. Looks like a young David Wright. I could see him being a first rounder in 2010. 

2. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds - Jay Bruce over Chris Davis? What? Yep. Jay Bruce is an absolute monster in the making. 17 homers in the second half, .244 BA almost entirely because of bad luck. A legitimate .320 hitter in the minor leagues. Expect a Ryan Braun like explosion in 2009, first round value in 2010. This guy could be Matt Holliday-in-Coors good.

3. Chris Davis, CI, Rangers - Davis doesn’t have as much upside as Bruce, however there is an argument to be made he will have a better 2009. 40 homers are within reach right away, could hit .290. Hitting in a great ballpark and lineup.

4. Geovany Soto, C, Cubs – This is a bit of a low spot for him right? He won rookie of the year last year and he plays catcher. I have nothing against .285 and 20 homers but I just don’t think he has any more upside. 25 homers is possible. Maybe he could get back to being the .300 hitter he was in the minors. But the guys above him should all hit 35 homers next year, I just can’t put him any higher. 

5. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox - Ellsbury was a very highly thought of rookie last season, and he delivered. .280 and 50 steals are good, although don’t expect that BA to go up much. I could see .280, 50 steals again. But those 50 steals could easily be 40 or even 35 with that OBP.

6. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona – Justin Upton has the most power in MLB. This guy has Arod type upside. His bat speed is the best in the majors, as is his average home run distance. He could hit 40 bombs in Petco. His K rate went down in the second half, his overall walk rate was better. In his prime he could hit 50 home runs. The problem is he’s 21 years old. He’s probably going to hit sub .270, but expect 30 home runs and some of that minor league speed could be back.

Nelson Cruz, far left, is a big time sleeper for 2009.

I’m going to pull a Matthew Berry on you. Sorry, I have to.

Player A – .302/.357/.551, 34 HR, 20 SB
Player B – .300/.369/.530, 30 HR, 9 SB

Now you probably guessed by now that your supposed to pick player A, and then I’ll say “But wait, player A is going 5 rounds after player B.” Yeah, I know it’s old, but it’s true.

Player B is Josh Hamilton. That .300 BA (ok, it’s really an xBA) is great, as is the 30 homers, and he even chips in in steals. He’s gets on base a solid rate and his SLG is good. Probably not second round numbers, but third round seems reasonable. Personally I think he’s overrated, but he’s still very good.

Player A is Nelson Cruz. And yes I cheated a little, that’s his major league equivalents + major league stats. But theoretically that’s what he would have done had he played a full season in MLB. He also hit .330 with 7 homers in 115 MLB at bats, so it’s not like those numbers were all piled up in the minor leagues. And look at those numbers. His .302 xBA is a little higher than Hamilton’s, but not by much. He has a lower OBP, but a higher SLG and OPS. When it comes to fantasy though this guy seems to blow Josh out of the watter. Not only does he hit 4 more home runs, he actually steals 11 more bases, and hits in the middle of the same lineup.

Ok so MLEs aren’t perfect, but you get the point. This guy is really good. Here’s the reason I would much rather have Cruz. While Hamilton’s ADP at Mock Draft Central is 10 (told you he was overrated), Cruz doesn’t appear in the top 75 and I can tell you he’s going as late as the 15th round in most drafts.

Lets look at some other guys who didn’t put up the same (or at least better) numbers as Cruz last year:

Alfonso Soriano – .282/.343/.582, 29 HR, 19 SB

Carl Crawford – .276/.319/.400, 8 HR, 25 SB

Ryan Braun – .294/.331/.553, 37 HR, 14 SB

Look I’m not saying to draft Cruz ahead of all these guys. A) Because his numbers could very well go down a little and B) Because you don’t have to. I’m pointing out how huge of a sleeper Nelson Cruz is and how overrated some of these outfielders are (although not Braun). Sure he might hit .285 (closer to his real BA last year) and he could hit 30 homers and only steal 15 bases but who’s going to complain? He’s hitting in the same lineup as the aforementioned Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler, so he’s gonna score a ton of runs and get a ton of rbis. The guy is a fantasy stud.

So far my sleeper team:

OF – Chris Dickerson
OF – Nelson Cruz

I’ll fill out my outfield over the weekend, and head to the infield (or maybe the rotation/bullpen).

Most likely to join games elite at the pitchers position? This is not a list of breakouts because some of these guys allready have. Not even ecatly a list of sleepers because some of these guys are going pretty high. This is a list of people most likely because of age, stuff, skills, etc. to join the games top 15 or 20 pitchers in 2008.

Now the top guy on my list was none other than Chad Billingsley. I love Chad Billingsley. All March I told everyone on my blog, forums, and on mock draft central that Chad Billingley was going to win or compete for the Cy Young in 2008. Heres the exact post:

I really like Chad Billingsley. There are plenty of reasons to. Starting with the fact that he is a 23 year old starting pitcher with a strong lineup in a pitchers park and a pitchers division. From more of a stats standpoint Billingsley had a 8.4 k/9 in the second half as a starter including a 9+ k/9 in September. Also consider his era of 3.03 in the rotation and you have a Cy Young candidate over a full year.

I told you so. Why wouldnt people listen? This guy was set to be Johan Santana. He had a bad April, leaguemates dropped him, and I pounced.

So lets take a look at the season this guy is having. In April Chad Billingsley had a 5.21 ERA and a few too many walks. He also had 13 strikeouts per nine innings and an xERA of 3.75. After that he never looked back. Sure he didn’t strikeout as many guys the rest of the season, but he gave up less walks and lowered his ERA to around 3. He has a K/BB rate of 2.6, more than a strikeout per 9 innings, and about half a home run per 9. He also has a tRA of 3.40, mcuh lower than that of first rounders Johan Santana and Jake Peavy.

So what does this mean? Dont pay attention to ERA’s, espicialy in April. The guy was having an amazing month, people just looked at his ERA and said “boy this guy sucks.” Oh an also when I publish my draft kit in February read it and listen at all costs!