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	<title>Fantasy Bullpen &#187; Alex Geshwind</title>
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	<description>The application of sabermetrics in Major League Baseball and in fantasy sports to WIN!</description>
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		<title>Roy Halladay Wins National League Cy Young</title>
		<link>http://fantasybullpen.com/news-notes/roy-halladay-wins-national-league-cy-young/</link>
		<comments>http://fantasybullpen.com/news-notes/roy-halladay-wins-national-league-cy-young/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Nov 2010 19:17:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Geshwind</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[FCG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News & Notes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fantasybullpen.com/?p=1063</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In a move that surprised no one, Phillies pitcher Roy Halladay unanimously won his second career Cy Young award, his first in the National League, beating out Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright for the most prestigious prize in pitching. Halladay had a Cinderella first season in Philadelphia, going 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA and 219 strikeouts, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p id="top" /><a href="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/7490527090005_Blue_Jays_v_Orioles.jpg"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-956" title="7490527090005_Blue_Jays_v_Orioles" src="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/7490527090005_Blue_Jays_v_Orioles-300x199.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="199" /></a>In a move that surprised no one, Phillies pitcher <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/roy-halladay">Roy Halladay</a> unanimously won his second career Cy Young award, his first in the  National League, beating out Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright for the most  prestigious prize in pitching.</p>
<p>Halladay had a Cinderella first  season in Philadelphia, going 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA and 219 strikeouts,  all among the best in the league. Halladay threw his first career  perfect game on May 29th, and the second All-Time playoff no-hitter in  the NLDS against Cincinnati.</p>
<p>The Phillies ace lead the league in  complete games for the sixth time in his last eight seasons, approaching  career bests in both wins and ERA, though falling short of his 22 win  2003 season.</p>
<p>That 2003 season was Halladay&#8217;s first Cy Young campaign. Halladay set a career low in ERA in 2005, when he was 28 years old.</p>
<p>Other  contenders for the award included Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright, who  finished second in 2009, Florida ace Josh Johnson, and Ubalod Jimenez,  who appeared the overwhelming favorite for much of the first half of the  season.</p>
<p>Jimenez faded down the stretch and Halladay finished  strong, leading the league in wins, K/BB rate, innings, complete games,  shutouts, and walk rate, finishing second in WHIP and strikeouts, and  third in ERA.</p>
<p>This second Cy Young award puts Halladay in a select  group of pitchers. Only two pitchers with multiple Cy Young awards have  been eligible for the Hall of Fame and failed to gain entry, and with  three 20 win seasons, a perfect game, and a playoff no-hitter, Halladay  looks like a near lock.</p>
<p>At 33 years old, Halladay is among the  leagues best pitchers, and seems to have a lot left in the tank. This  past year was arguably Hallday&#8217;s best, and over the past four years he  has finished third, fifth, second, and fifth in Cy Young voting. Only  time will tell if he can repeat this incredible season, but I wouldn&#8217;t  bet against him.</p>
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		<title>&#8220;Down Year&#8221; for Pujols Could Produce Triple Crown</title>
		<link>http://fantasybullpen.com/news-notes/year-pujols-triple-crown/</link>
		<comments>http://fantasybullpen.com/news-notes/year-pujols-triple-crown/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Aug 2010 04:28:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Geshwind</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2010 Fantasy Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FCG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News & Notes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fantasybullpen.com/?p=1046</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For the first time in many years, we have a Triple Crown race in Major League Baseball. Not one, but two players are within striking distance of one of the most elusive achievements in all of sports. Not since 1967 has anyone led either Major League in home runs, RBI, and batting average. Not since [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p id="top" />For the first time in many years, we have a Triple Crown race in Major League Baseball. Not one, but two players are within striking distance of one of the most elusive achievements in all of sports.</p>
<div id="attachment_1047" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/749100827044_Cardinals_at_Nationals.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-1047" title="Albert Pujols" src="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/749100827044_Cardinals_at_Nationals-300x199.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="199" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Albert Pujols could become the first player since 1937 to win the NL Triple Crown.</p></div>
<p>Not since 1967 has anyone led either Major League in home runs, RBI, and batting average. Not since 1937 has a player done so in the National League. Yet with August winding down and the divisional races heating up, Albert Pujols ranks first in home runs and RBI, third in batting average, just six points behind leader Joey Votto, who also ranks second in home runs, just three back of Pujols, and second in RBI, again, only three behind Pujols.</p>
<p>For Votto, this is a career year. At just 26, he has plenty of time left to show that 2010 was not a fluke, and that he belongs among the games elite. But as good as he was the past couple of years, he&#8217;s really put things together this season and should he win the Triple Crown it would simply top off a breakthrough season for the Red slugger.</p>
<p>On the flip side, there is no doubt that Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball. He&#8217;s had many great season before, and should he pull off the Triple Crown, he&#8217;s all but guaranteed to become the second player in baseball history with four MVP awards. He&#8217;d also become the second player in baseball history to win three such awards in a row, following only Barry Bonds in both instances. But what&#8217;s so incredible about this season, and about Pujols, is that 2010 might just be a <em>bellow average</em> year by Phat Albert&#8217;s standards.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s take a step back, and look at Pujols&#8217; numbers as they appeared on July 31st, less than a month ago. Albert was hitting .299 on the season with a .399 OBP, a .551 SLG, and an OPS of .950. This would certainly be considered a great season for just about anyone. But for Pujols, a .950 OPS would represent a career low, as would the .299 batting average, 15 points lower than in any season of his career, and the .551 SLG, 11 points lower than in any season of his career. With two months to go in the season, Albert had just 23 home runs.</p>
<p>The Machine flipped a switch in August, and is no longer in danger of having one of his worst seasons. Over the past month, he&#8217;s hit .411 with 11 home runs, 22 RBI, and a 1.336 OPS. For the first time since April, Pujols batted over .300 for a month. It was also the first time since April his monthly OPS topped .950. One big month has taken Pujols from a career-low year to the strongest Triple Crown candidate we&#8217;ve had in decades.</p>
<p>But what about his numbers as of today? Pujols is hitting .320 with 35 home runs and an OPS of 1.022. He leads his league in hits, runs, home runs, RBI, and SLG, he&#8217;s second in  OBP and OPS, third in SLG. A great season by any measure, sure. But one of his best? Hardly. This is Pujols 10th season in the Major Leagues. His 1.022 OPS would rank seventh best in his career, his second worst OPS since 2002, his worst over that stretch coming in an injury plagued 2007. His 172 OPS+ would be tied for fifth best in his career.</p>
<p>His 2010 OBP and 2010 SLG both rank as the third worst of his career, his OBP at it&#8217;s lowest level since 2002. His average is the second worst of his career, only six points above his career-low .314 in 2002. 2010 is also shaping up to be a middle of the pack year for Pujols in the power department. He&#8217;s on pace right now to end up in the low-40s in home runs. Not really a down year for the Cardinals slugger, but certainly not-off the charts.</p>
<p>This has been an incredible season to be a baseball fan. We&#8217;ve seen five (six) no-hitters, two (three) perfect games, and cast of rookies that&#8217;s unmatched in recent memory. But this is something truly unique. We have a player so incredibly talented that, in a year that arguably ranks as bellow average for his career, he has a chance to win the first batting Triple Crown in more than four decades, the first in his league in more than 70 years.</p>
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		<title>Stephen Strasburg to undergo TJS</title>
		<link>http://fantasybullpen.com/news-notes/stephen-strasburg-undergo-tjs/</link>
		<comments>http://fantasybullpen.com/news-notes/stephen-strasburg-undergo-tjs/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Aug 2010 16:59:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Geshwind</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[FCG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News & Notes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fantasybullpen.com/?p=1041</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last Saturday, Stephen Strasburg, in his first game back after a short DL stint, left his start againts the Philadelphia Phillies with an injury to his pitching arm. This morning, the news came down from GM Mike Rizzo that Strasburg will need to undergo Tommy John Surgery to repair a significant tear in his UCL, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p id="top" />Last Saturday, Stephen Strasburg, in his first game back after a short DL stint, left his start againts the Philadelphia Phillies with an injury to his pitching arm. This morning, the news came down from GM Mike Rizzo that Strasburg will need to undergo Tommy John Surgery to repair a significant tear in his UCL, and will most likely miss the entire 2011 season.</p>
<div id="attachment_878" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/357090830208_Stephen_Strasburg_First_Washington_Nationals_Workout.JPG"><img class="size-medium wp-image-878" title="357090830208_Stephen_Strasburg_First_Washington_Nationals_Workout" src="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/357090830208_Stephen_Strasburg_First_Washington_Nationals_Workout-300x216.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="216" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Strasburg is 6-1, with a 0.99 ERA at AA and AAA.</p></div>
<p>Strasburg, who was undoubtedly baseball&#8217;s best pitcher during the first month of his career, finishes a shortened rookie season 5-3 with a 2.91 ERA and 92 strikeouts to just 17 walks in 68 innings pitched.</p>
<p>This situation is eerily reminiscent of Francisco Liriano&#8217;s 2006 season. The Twins ace exploded onto the scene in &#8217;06, and looked like a Cy Young contender at mid-season. After a month-long stint on the DL, Liriano made two starts, one in late August, the next in early September, before landing back on the DL and eventually undergoing Tommy John Surgery.</p>
<p>This is without a doubt bad news. But it is important to remember that Liriano has been one of baseball&#8217;s best pitchers this year. The same can be said for fellow TJS recipient Josh Johnson. While the road to recovery is long, and Strasburg may not be himself right away, the surgery now has a very high success rate. This isn&#8217;t going to end Strasburg&#8217;s career, and he should be back to 100% within two years. While his questionable mechanics and electric stuff could lead to further injury in the future, we&#8217;ve seen plenty of pitchers return from TJS and stay healthy long term. </p>
<p>As difficult a situation is TJS is, there is a silver lining here. This injury gives the Nationals another year to become a competitive organization. The service time clock has stopped ticking for now, and the Nationals will control their phenom for an additional year before he reaches free agency. This not only gives the Nationals a bigger window of competition with Strasburg, but also increases his future trade value should the team not become competitive in the next 3-4 years. </p>
<p>Stephen Strasburg might be the most talented pitcher in the game, and as a baseball fan, I want to see the guy pitch. Thankfully, this is unlikely to be the end of his career, or the end of his dominance, and Nationals fans can take solace in the fact that there team now has another year to become a competitor in the National League East and win with Stephen Strasburg as their ace. </p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Extend Ricky Romero</title>
		<link>http://fantasybullpen.com/news-notes/blue-jays-extended-ricky-romero/</link>
		<comments>http://fantasybullpen.com/news-notes/blue-jays-extended-ricky-romero/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Aug 2010 05:55:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Geshwind</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2010 Fantasy Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FCG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News & Notes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fantasybullpen.com/?p=1026</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays on Saturday signed 25-year-old former top-10 pick Ricky Romero to a five year, $30.1 million contract that will keep him signed with the team through 2015. Romero, the teams first round pick in 2005, has a 3.53 ERA and 3.40 FIP on the season. Not much of a strikeout pitcher in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p id="top" /><a href="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/7490621090015_Blue_Jays_v_Nationals.jpg"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-1027" title="MLB:  JUN 21 Blue Jays at Nationals" src="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/7490621090015_Blue_Jays_v_Nationals-300x199.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="199" /></a>The Blue Jays on Saturday signed 25-year-old former top-10 pick Ricky Romero to a five year, $30.1 million contract that will keep him signed with the team through 2015.</p>
<p>Romero, the teams first round pick in 2005, has a 3.53 ERA and 3.40 FIP on the season. Not much of a strikeout pitcher in the minor leagues, he&#8217;s really refined his stuff in the Majors, and thus far has a 7.76 strikeout rate on the season. He&#8217;s also a groundball pitcher (54% GB-rate both this year and last) and while his control is still a bit shaky, it&#8217;s improved over the past year and is currently no worse than average. Overall, he&#8217;s got a great skill set and at just 25 he still has room to grow by improving his command, and becoming the ace the Blue Jays hoped he could be when they selected him sixth overall.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s break the deal down.</p>
<p>Right off the bat, the Jays will be giving Romero a $1.25 million signing bonus. In 2011, Romero will make $750K, a few thousand more than he would have had he not signed the deal, but nothing major. This is his final pre-arbitration year, and the Jays aren&#8217;t paying much for it.</p>
<p>Had Romero not signed this deal, he would have gone through arbitration in 2012, 2013, and 2014. Now, the Blue Jays have him under control and will pay him an average of $6.7 million over the three year stretch. Even if Romero simply continues to pitch at the level he has, he&#8217;ll be well worth the money.</p>
<p>The best part about this deal from the Jays perspective is that they now control one or two of Romero&#8217;s free agent years. In 2015, Romero will be right in the middle of his prime at 30 years old. The Jays have him locked up at $7.5 million for the 2015 season, and can exercise a $13.1 million option for 2016. Should Romero get hurt, or should his performance suffer, they can buy out the 2016 season for just $600K.</p>
<p>Romero gets a great deal of financial security out of this deal, and while it would be nice to hit the free agent market at 29 years old, he&#8217;s now guaranteed $30+ million over the next five seasons. This is certainly a good deal from his perspective.</p>
<p>I also like this deal for the Blue Jays. Romero is a very talented pitcher, and he&#8217;s only getting better. If he develops into the front-line starter he seems capable of becoming, having his arbitration years control could be huge in the Blue Jays rebuilding efforts, and keeping him under contract for two prime-age free agent years is also a major plus.</p>
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		<title>Your National League MVP is&#8230;?</title>
		<link>http://fantasybullpen.com/fantasy-baseball-2010/national-league-mvp/</link>
		<comments>http://fantasybullpen.com/fantasy-baseball-2010/national-league-mvp/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jun 2010 03:11:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Geshwind</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2010 Fantasy Baseball]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fantasybullpen.com/?p=987</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Who has been the most valuable player in the National League so far this season? Ask that question to ten different people, you&#8217;ll probably get four or five different answers. By this point last season, Albert Pujols had already pulled away from the pack. He was hitting .328 with 26 home runs, and an OPS [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p id="top" />Who has been the most valuable player in the National League so far this season? Ask that question to ten different people, you&#8217;ll probably get four or five different answers.</p>
<p>By this point last season, Albert Pujols had already pulled away from the pack. He was hitting .328 with 26 home runs, and an OPS of 1.159. On June 23rd, 2009, it was fairly clear who the National League MVP had been over the first few months of the season. But this year? No National League batters has hit 20 or more home runs. None have an OPS over 1.000. Albert Pujols is hitting &#8220;just&#8221; .302 with &#8220;only&#8221; 15 home runs. Hanley Ramirez is having a down year. So is Chase Utley. And so is Prince Fielder.</p>
<p>Andre Ethier looked like the clear cut favorite early in the season, but his offense has tailed off and his defense has been beyond terrible. Jason Heyward had a case entering the month, with an OPS near 1.000 on a first place team, but he too has been in quite a slump. Albert Pujols was near the league lead in several offensive categories a few weeks ago, but he&#8217;s hit just three home runs in the month of June.</p>
<p>Who does that leave in contention?</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s start with the first place Braves, and current NL batting average leader Martin Prado. Prado is the only National Leaguer among the top-10 in the league in batting average, hitting .340 to date. But Prado rarely walks and has little power. Prado is a good hitter and a solid defensive third baseman, but his overall offensive package just isn&#8217;t enough.</p>
<p>What about Andre Ethier? He&#8217;s dropped off just a bit, but he&#8217;s still hitting .320. He hasn&#8217;t walked quite all that much, but his SLG% of .583 leads the National League, and his .965 OPS is second. The problem with Ethier, as it has always been, is defense. He&#8217;s one of the worst right fielders in baseball. So far this season, he&#8217;s cost his team nearly 14 runs in the field according to UZR. Over his career, he&#8217;s lost his team more than 30 runs in right field, so this is nothing new. As great a hitter as he&#8217;s been, his poor defense has to be taken into consideration.</p>
<p>Marlon Byrd is hitting .323 on the season with a .521 slugging and a UZR over seven. But his lack of walks (his OBP is just .366) make him a less valuable player than his average and slugging would indicate. Another National League Central outfielder might have a better case &#8211; Matt Holliday. Holliday has had an incredible June. He&#8217;s hitting .308, but hasn&#8217;t walked as frequently as in previous seasons, and has only 11 home runs. He&#8217;s a solid candidate, and the way he&#8217;s playing, he could put himself into contention sooner rather than latter. But right now, Holliday probably doesn&#8217;t deserve to win the award.</p>
<p>Joey Votto is certainly a reasonable candidate. The Reds are in first place, due in large part to Votto&#8217;s contributions with the bat. Votto is hitting .310 with a .405 OBP and 15 home runs. He has an impressive .962 OPS, and might be the favorite to win the award if it were not for another first baseman on a first place team. That man is Adrian Gonzalez.</p>
<p>Gonzalez is, in my mind, the most underrated player in baseball. He&#8217;s probably the second best first baseman in the league, but is often over looked, partly because he plays in San Diego, and partly.. well because he plays his home games in San Diego. Last season, his OPS was nearly 200 points higher on the road. At home, he hit just .244 at home. 28 of his 40 home runs came on the road.</p>
<p>So with that in mind, consider the fact that Gonzalez now leads the league in OPS. So far this season, Gonzalez is hitting .313 with a .411 OBP and a .559 SLG, to go along with 15 home runs and 47 RBI. His home/road splits are astounding. On the road, Gonzalez is a .353 hitter with a .664 SLG. Again, his OPS is nearly 200 points higher outside of Petco. Gonzalez is also one of the best defensive first baseman in the league, and has one the last two National League Gold Glove Awards at first base. The Padres are in first place mostly due to outstanding pitching and defense, but Gonzalez&#8217;s offensive contribution has been extremely valuable for a team that plays half their games in offensive hell.</p>
<p>If the season were to end today, I have no idea who would win the National League MVP award. But I have a pretty good idea who would be deserving of that honor. That would be baseball&#8217;s most underrated player, Adrian Gonzalez.</p>
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		<title>Minor League Watch: Five Guys Ready for Promotion</title>
		<link>http://fantasybullpen.com/fcg/minor-league-watch-guys-ready-promotion/</link>
		<comments>http://fantasybullpen.com/fcg/minor-league-watch-guys-ready-promotion/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 May 2010 00:47:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Geshwind</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2010 Fantasy Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FCG]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fantasybullpen.com/?p=976</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How far into the season is it fair to sit down, and really take a hard look at a players statistics? Depends who you ask. The New York media would like to put that somewhere around the fifth inning of opening day. Most fans really start to pay attention a month into the season. Statically [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p id="top" />How far into the season is it fair to sit down, and really take a hard look at a players statistics? Depends who you ask. The New York media would like to put that somewhere around the fifth inning of opening day. Most fans really start to pay attention a month into the season. Statically speaking, a full season, perhaps two, is ideal. But we&#8217;re impatient. Baseball moves too fast. In my opinion, after about two months, it&#8217;s fair to at least start looking at where players stand.</p>
<p>Of course, we all know who&#8217;s leading the Majors in what. Ubaldo Jimenez has an ERA under 1 and an 8-1 record. Justin Morneau leads the AL in batting, and has chipped in 11 home runs. Andre Ethier, if healthy, would be competing for a triple crown. I don&#8217;t have to tell you all that. But what about the minor leagues? Which players are likely ready for a promotion after destroying pitching at their level the past two months? Of course, I&#8217;m not talking about 30 year old career minor leaguers teeing off against guys 5-10  years younger than them, but real prospects. Guys who project as Major League starters.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<div id="attachment_878" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><strong><strong><a href="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/357090830208_Stephen_Strasburg_First_Washington_Nationals_Workout.JPG"><img class="size-medium wp-image-878" title="357090830208_Stephen_Strasburg_First_Washington_Nationals_Workout" src="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/357090830208_Stephen_Strasburg_First_Washington_Nationals_Workout-300x216.jpg" alt="Strasburg is 6-1, with a 0.99 ERA at AA and AAA." width="300" height="216" /></a></strong></strong><p class="wp-caption-text">Strasburg is 6-1, with a 0.99 ERA at AA and AAA.</p></div>
<p><strong>Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals -</strong> Are you surprised? Stephen Strasburg has technically already been promoted this year, but this guy should be pitching in the Major Leagues. In 22 innings at AA Harrisburg, Strasburg struck out 27 batters, walking six. In 23.1 innings at AAA so far, he&#8217;s got 27 strikeouts and just four walks. He&#8217;s yet to give up a professional home run. Through two levels, he&#8217;s 6-1 in nine starts, with an ERA under one and WHIP of .71. 54 Ks, 10 BBs. Simply incredible numbers. Strasburg probably has better stuff than any pitcher in Major League baseball right now. He also has advanced command, and the ability to pound the bottom of the strike zone and induce groundballs. He&#8217;s the best pitching prospect in the last decade at the very least, and by the first week of June, we&#8217;ll likely see him pitching in Washington.</p>
<p><strong>Carlos Santana, C, Indians &#8211; </strong>Santana started off the season on a torrid pace, slowed down a bit, then heated back up again. Through 44 games, Carlos has a .313 average, 35 BBs and just 29 Ks, 10 homers, and a 1.020 OPS. Last season he OPS&#8217;d .953 at AA, after a breakout 2008 campaign in which he hit .326 with a .999 OPS through two levels and two organizations. Santana entered this season as a borderline top-10 prospect, and has done nothing but cement his status in that elite group.The Indians aren&#8217;t very good right now, so there has been no rush to bring him to the big leagues. But with June approaching, and Santana 24 years old, there seems very little reason to keep him in AAA much longer.  I expect Santana in the Majors by the end of June.</p>
<p><strong>Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals </strong>- Of course, we all know about Mike Moustakas. The Royals took him second overall back in 2007, a few spots ahead of Matt Wieters, and 12 spots ahead of Jason Heyward. Moustakas was hyped as a potential super star, appearing in the 2008 and 2009 BA top-100 lists, at 18 and 13 respectively. His first full season in Minor League ball was a disappointment, as he hit just .272, with a .337 OBP, and 22 homers. But he was just 19 years old. Last season, as a 20 year old in A+, Moustakas continued to struggle. He hist just 16 homers, and his average dropped to .250. He got on base under 30% of the time. So coming into this season, expectations were not too high. He had dropped considerably on prospects lists, and was BA&#8217;s fourth highest rated Royals prospect. Fourth. He was no longer considered a future Major League star. Well, it seems like Moustakas has finally hit the switch. Through 27 games in the AA Texas League, Moustakas leads the league in hitting with a .390 average. He&#8217;s struck out 18 times, and walked 17, a major improvement over the past couple of years. He also leads the league with 12 homers and 41 RBI. Coming into the season, Baseball America described him as a guy with two plus tools, his raw power and his strong arm at third, to go along with a solid swing, good bat speed, and good hand-eye coordination. The issue was approach. He was too aggressive, and too pull happy; he just couldn&#8217;t hit yet. So far, so good for Moustakas. Given his struggles the past couple of seasons, his young age, and the hitter-friendly environment of the Texas League, Moustakas probably wont be promoted anytime soon. He&#8217;s finally showing some promise and a Royals team that&#8217;s not going anywhere can afford to let him build his confidence, and develop as a player. But expect him in AAA by the end of the season, in the big leagues some time in 2011.</p>
<p><strong>Dom Brown, RF, Phillies -</strong> I&#8217;ve always been just a bit skeptical of Dom Brown. He&#8217;s the one guy the Phillies wouldn&#8217;t trade for Roy Halladay. To me, this didn&#8217;t make much sense. Brown has always had raw tools, but has yet to show them on the field. He&#8217;s uber-talented, but so is Michael Taylor. So is Kyle Drabek. Why hang onto the guy who seems least likely to succeed? So far this season, Brown is proving me wrong. The 22 year old has started off 2010 in the AA Eastern League. Through 38 games, Brown is hitting .320, with an OPS over 1.000. He also has 7 steals, and 8 home runs, having hit just 14 all of last season. This is a level he&#8217;s repeating, after having played 37 games in the Eastern League to end 2009, but his OPS is about 200 points higher then it wast last season. Unlike Kansas City, the Phillies are actually going somewhere this season. However, their outfield is pretty crowded right now. Brown should be in AAA soon, and if Raul Ibanez isn&#8217;t hitting in July, he could be their starting left fielder down the stretch.</p>
<p><strong>Mike Stanton, RF, Florida Marlins -</strong> Mike Stanton is an incredibly gifted young player. At 18 years old, he hit 39 homers in 2008, batting .293. Last year, he hit just .255 as his contact issues caught up to him, yet still managed 28 homers and 92 RBI. This season though, Stanton is taking his play to another level. In 41 games to start the season, Stanton has hit .318 with a .458 OBP. His strikeouts are down from last season &#8211; 43 in a 154 at bats &#8211; though still a bit high. Still, he&#8217;s walked almost as often (36 times), and at the same time, put on a show with his power. His 17 home runs leads all of professional baseball, and he&#8217;s also got 11 doubles and a triple. The Marlins are currently just three games out of first in the NL East, and Stanton may be able to help them down the stretch. He&#8217;s just 20 years old, and I still have some concerns about his ability to make contact. But he&#8217;s just so good, I could see him paying in the Majors before the season is over, especially if the Marlins stay in the race.</p>
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		<title>Time To Make a Move</title>
		<link>http://fantasybullpen.com/fcg/time-move/</link>
		<comments>http://fantasybullpen.com/fcg/time-move/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 May 2010 00:46:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Geshwind</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2010 Fantasy Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FCG]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fantasybullpen.com/?p=973</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s May 16th. The baseball season is nearly a fourth of the way over. And if you&#8217;re like me, the seasons hasn&#8217;t been too kind so far. I was doing fine in my AL league, until Nelson Cruz and Brett Anderson went on the DL. I lost a dozen points, and now I&#8217;m in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p id="top" />It&#8217;s May 16th. The baseball season is nearly a fourth of the way over. And if you&#8217;re like me, the seasons hasn&#8217;t been too kind so far. I was doing fine in my AL league, until Nelson Cruz and Brett Anderson went on the DL. I lost a dozen points, and now I&#8217;m in the middle of the pack. I was doing fine in my NFBC league, until my pitching staff came back to earth. Now I&#8217;m last in wins, in 9th place overall. I was doing great in my NL league up until this past week, a week in which I lost a ridiculous 13.5 points.</p>
<p>Translations: It&#8217;s time to make a move. When you&#8217;re team&#8217;s in first place, fantasy baseball isn&#8217;t easy. You&#8217;re the target. Everyone is trying to pass you. When you&#8217;re in the middle of the pack, it&#8217;s impossibly frustrating. Today, you&#8217;re team hits 5 homers, Homer Bailey pitches a CGSO, and you move into a tie for fifth. Tomorrow, you&#8217;re team hits .170, you blow a couple of saves, and you&#8217;re back in ninth. You can&#8217;t control how your players perform, but you can control one thing; your roster.</p>
<p>We&#8217;re a fourth of the way into the season. We&#8217;re at a point where owners have made up their minds on a great deal of their players. Justin Morneau is an MVP, Alex Rodriguez is finished, and so on. But it&#8217;s still only six weeks. There&#8217;s still a lot of baseball left to play. And it&#8217;s at this time that championship caliber teams need to make a move. They need to exploit league perception.</p>
<p>So who do you target? Well, here are a few names:</p>
<p><strong></p>
<div id="attachment_974" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><strong><a href="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/526090515024_Cincinnati_vs_San_Diego3.JPG"><img class="size-medium wp-image-974" title="526090515024_Cincinnati_vs_San_Diego(3)" src="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/526090515024_Cincinnati_vs_San_Diego3-300x199.jpg" alt="Harang should see his ERA improve in the near future." width="300" height="199" /></a></strong><p class="wp-caption-text">Harang should see his ERA improve in the near future.</p></div>
<p>Aaron Harang -</strong> I&#8217;m an Aaron Harang owner. A very, very frustrated owner. The truth is, Aaron Harang has been terrible so far this season, from a fantasy perspective, with a 6.02 ERA to go along with his 2-5 record. But he&#8217;s not pitching poorly. Through 46.1 innings, Harang has 41 Ks to only 10 BBs. He&#8217;s been the victim of a horrible BABIP (.358) and HR/FB rate (18.4%) that are going to return to normal levels. Now&#8217;s the time to buy.</p>
<p><strong>Raul Ibanez &#8211; </strong>Another player I own, another frustrating start to the season. But there&#8217;s hope. He&#8217;s currently striking out at a lower rate than he did last season, and walking at a higher rate. He only has 3 homers, but his .175 ISO is not that far behind his Seattle numbers. The real reason for his slow start? A BABIP of .260.</p>
<p><strong>Dan Haren -</strong> It&#8217;s crazy how Haren can have the second best xFIP in baseball and an ERA over 4. Acquiring him at this point is a risk, as he struggles down the stretch historically, but he&#8217;s pitching like the ace he is thus far. The ERA will come around.</p>
<p><strong>Scott Baker &#8211; </strong>A 4.93 ERA makes this look like another poor start for Baker. But K/BB is now higher than it was the past two seasons. Even better, Baker&#8217;s GB% is the highest it&#8217;s been since he came into the league. If he can keep it in the high-30s, an ERA in the mid-3&#8242;s is not just possible, it&#8217;s likely.</p>
<p><strong>Travis Snider -</strong> Snider is only hitting .247 with 6 homers on the season, but he&#8217;s been coming around of late. His batting eye is up 11 points from last season, due mostly to a K rate decrease from 32.4% to 25.0%. And while 6 homers may not seem like a lot, his ISO is up to .241. He&#8217;s clearly seeing the ball better,  and if he can make contact at a higher rate, we could see the Travis Snider who was ranked as one of the top prospects in baseball a year ago.</p>
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		<title>Roberts, Hill to DL</title>
		<link>http://fantasybullpen.com/news-notes/roberts-hill-dl/</link>
		<comments>http://fantasybullpen.com/news-notes/roberts-hill-dl/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Apr 2010 15:51:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Geshwind</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[FCG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News & Notes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fantasybullpen.com/?p=965</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A day into the second week of the 2010 Major League season, and several teams are dealing with serious injuries in their middle infield. The Baltimore Orioles have placed Brian Roberts on the DL, retroactive to Friday, with a strained abdomen. Roberts has been dealing with pain from a herniated disk since the spring, an [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p id="top" />A day into the second week of the 2010 Major League season, and several teams are dealing with serious injuries in their middle infield.</p>
<p><a href="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/7490920090016_Red_Sox_v_Orioles.jpg"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-966" title="7490920090016_Red_Sox_v_Orioles" src="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/7490920090016_Red_Sox_v_Orioles-300x199.jpg" alt="7490920090016_Red_Sox_v_Orioles" width="300" height="199" /></a>The Baltimore Orioles have placed <strong>Brian Roberts</strong> on the DL, retroactive to Friday, with a strained abdomen. Roberts has been dealing with pain from a herniated disk since the spring, an injury he aggravated sliding into second base Friday. While an MRI revealed no additional structural damage, Roberts was given his second epidural shot on Monday and is clearly in significant pain. This injury will keep Roberts out through April at the very least, and could potentially affect his ability to play, and perform at a high level for the rest of the season. If you own Roberts, you should probably look for a semi-long term solution if you can. While Julo Lugo will take most of Roberts playing time, he&#8217;s not an option in mixed leagues.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have placed their second baseman <strong>Aaron Hill</strong> on the DL as well. Hill injured his hamstring on April 5th, and while he played in the teams next game, he hasn&#8217;t been in the lineup since. Hill is eligible to return April 23rd, and there is no reason at the moment to believe he wont be able to. Hill believes he could have played through the injury, and manager Cito Gaston has said he was considering playing him yesterday. Hopefully this is just a precaution, and the injury wont linger. If much of Hill&#8217;s value was tied up in his speed, a leg injury would be of more concern, but that&#8217;s not the case. John McDonald and Mike McCoy will split time until Hill comes back. Neither are worth a pickup in any format.</p>
<p>Finally, <strong>Jimmy Rollins</strong> was scratched from the Phillies lineup for Monday&#8217;s home opener after straining his right calf in warmups. Rollins is scheduled for an MRI, and a DL stint is possible. As with Hill, we&#8217;re hoping this is just a minor injury, even if it does cause him to miss a couple of weeks, but right now we just don&#8217;t know.</p>
<p>So, who should you look at to replace these guys in mixed leagues? There aren&#8217;t many great middle infielders out there. <strong>Luis Valbuena</strong>, who was one of my favorite pre-season sleepers, is owned in just 1.6% of ESPN standard mixed leagues. While he has started off the season a bit slowly, he is plenty capable of hitting for solid average with moderate pop. <strong>Orlando Hudson</strong> is owned in just over 12% of ESPN leagues, and while he&#8217;s not great, he could give you solid production and guaranteed playing time.<strong> Skip Schumaker </strong>is another solid option. At short stop, <strong>Orlando Cabrera</strong> is owned in under 20% of leagues. He&#8217;s another not-so-great option, but should provide solid across the board production. <strong>Valbuena, Ian Desmond</strong>, and <strong>Johnny Peralta</strong> are other solid options.</p>
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		<title>Can Garrett Jones Keep It Up?</title>
		<link>http://fantasybullpen.com/fcg/garrett-jones/</link>
		<comments>http://fantasybullpen.com/fcg/garrett-jones/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Apr 2010 14:40:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Geshwind</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2010 Fantasy Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FCG]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fantasybullpen.com/?p=945</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last June the Pittsburgh Pirates traded Eric Hinske to the New York Yankees. In order to fill his roster spot, Neal Huntington called up a 28 year old career minor leaguer by the name of Garrett Jones. Jones was a career .252 hitter in the minor leagues, but his .307/.348/.502 line at AAA earned him [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p id="top" /><a href="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/114090827038_Phillies_v_Pirates.JPG"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-946" title="114090827038_Phillies_v_Pirates" src="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/114090827038_Phillies_v_Pirates-300x199.jpg" alt="114090827038_Phillies_v_Pirates" width="300" height="199" /></a>Last June the Pittsburgh Pirates traded Eric Hinske to the New York Yankees. In order to fill his roster spot, Neal Huntington called up a 28 year old career minor leaguer by the name of Garrett Jones. Jones was a career .252 hitter in the minor leagues, but his .307/.348/.502 line at AAA earned him a chance at a big league job. Over the next  82 games &#8211; basically, half a season &#8211; Jones hit .293 with 21 homers and 10 steals.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s a pretty impressive performance, and if he could continue performing at that rate, Jones would be a first round pick. But no one believed he could, and so he slipped to the late rounds in almost every league. But a couple games into the season, Jones leads Major League Baseball with three home runs, including a monster shot into Allegheny River. Jones is clearly not going to hit 243 homers, and drive in 486 runs, but can he continue to produce elite fantasy numbers, or is now the time to sell high?</p>
<p>The first thing worth taking a look at is his minor league line. Jones has always possessed moderate power, with ISO&#8217;s of .192, .193, .205, and .195 in his last four AAA seasons. On four occasions, Jones had hit 20+ home runs in a season, peaking with 31 in 2004, when he was a 23 year old playing in A+ and AA for the Twins. His main problem is that batting average. Between 2004 and 2006, Jones struck out 100+ times, and hit under .245 in two of those seasons, with a K rate around 23%. A 23% K rate is not the end of the world, but when you&#8217;re BABIP is as low as Jones&#8217; was, it&#8217;s going to cause you problems. In 2007, 2008, and 2009 though, his K rate dropped and his BABIP reached the .300+ mark. Jones hit .279, .280, and .307 at AAA. And what about the speed? He stole 24 bases at two levels last year, and that improved batting average may have helped somewhat, but he never showed that speed in the minor leagues, and his speed score of 4.4 was well bellow league average.</p>
<p>Jones&#8217; minor league stat line does lead me to believe he can be a relevant fantasy player. The speed he flashed last year was probably not real, and he&#8217;s unlikely to hit .293 again. His .274 ISO was also out of whack with his minor league level of performance, so he&#8217;s unlikely to stay atop the Major League HR leaderboard for long. He&#8217;s just a solid player who could hit .270 with 20-25 homers, and maybe double digit steals. At this point, you&#8217;ve gotta sell high. Someone out there see&#8217;s his 2009 numbers, and see&#8217;s his quick start to 2010, and think he&#8217;s going to hit 40 homers, steal 20 bases, and hit .300. That&#8217;s not going to happen.</p>
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		<title>An NL-Only Auction</title>
		<link>http://fantasybullpen.com/fcg/nlonly-auction/</link>
		<comments>http://fantasybullpen.com/fcg/nlonly-auction/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Apr 2010 13:44:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Geshwind</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2010 Fantasy Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FCG]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fantasybullpen.com/?p=940</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week I went over my AL-Only team, so today I&#8217;ll take a look at my NL-only roster. The auction was last night. This is an 11-team, 5&#215;5 roto league. My strategy going in was to spend most of my budget on hitters. I wanted to come out of the draft with at least one [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p id="top" />Last week I went over my AL-Only team, so today I&#8217;ll take a look at my NL-only roster. The auction was last night. This is an 11-team, 5&#215;5 roto league.</p>
<p>My strategy going in was to spend most of my budget on hitters. I wanted to come out of the draft with at least one top-tier starting pitcher (Ricky Nolasco was my main target) and at least one solid closer, if not two. I ended up spending a bit more on pitching, but given the quality of $1 arms out there, it worked out ok. I love my offense. It&#8217;s an old team, which means there&#8217;s a bit more injury risk, but also a lot less performance risk. You&#8217;ll see a lot of &#8220;dependable value picks&#8221; in there, as a lot of the older, lower-upside players went really cheap. This is probably the best draft I&#8217;ve had this year (and, sadly, my final one) and I really think I have a good shot to compete for the championship. Pretty good for a first time NL&#8217;er at least.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Offense:</strong></span></p>
<p><strong>C &#8211; Geovany Soto ($14) -</strong> Injuries derailed his 2009 season, but he&#8217;s a couple of years removed from a .285/23/86 season, and only 27. Filling up a catcher&#8217;s spot with this kind of upside is great, and there are still a couple of solid backups out there.</p>
<p><strong>C &#8211; Bengie Molina ($8) &#8211; </strong>Not the biggest fan of Molina in the world, but you know what you&#8217;re going to get from him. A solid batting average and 15-20 homers. Looking back, I probably could have had a better option late in the draft at this price, but until Posey comes up I like Molina as my second catcher.</p>
<p><strong></p>
<div id="attachment_941" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><strong><a href="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/114090628032_Royals_v_Pirates.JPG"><img class="size-medium wp-image-941" title="114090628032_Royals_v_Pirates" src="http://fantasybullpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/114090628032_Royals_v_Pirates-300x199.jpg" alt="Laroche is money in the bank, and a value at $14." width="300" height="199" /></a></strong><p class="wp-caption-text">Laroche is money in the bank, and good value at $14.</p></div>
<p>1B &#8211; Adam Laroche ($14) -</strong> I had Laroche valued at $22 coming in, so I couldn&#8217;t believe it when the bidding stopped at $14. This is a guy with two straight .270/25 seasons. He&#8217;s moving into a great hitters park, and should get plenty of RBI opportunities hitting right behind Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, and Justin Upton.</p>
<p><strong>2B &#8211; Luis Castillo ($8) -</strong> Desperately looking for some speed in the end-game, I settled on Castillo. I don&#8217;t like to look for speed from a 35 year old, but if he can me 20 steals I&#8217;ll be happy at this price.</p>
<p><strong>SS &#8211; Orlando Cabrera ($7) -</strong> Another old guy that I don&#8217;t love, but will settle for in the single digits. He gives me a solid batting average, decent power, and potentially double digit steals. I&#8217;ll take it.</p>
<p><strong>3B &#8211; David Wright ($34) -</strong> I think David Wright is going to rebound. He&#8217;s 27, and 27 year old&#8217;s don&#8217;t just hitting for power, even on the Mets. He&#8217;s hit 6 homers this spring, and if he rebounds, $34 is a reasonable price, if not a bargain.</p>
<p><strong>CI &#8211; Daniel Murphy ($2) &#8211; </strong>Before the injury I had him in the low-teens. He was a young player with a full time role, a solid batting average, and some power upside. Even if he misses the first month of the season, Mike Jacobs sucks. Unless Ike Davis tears up the minor leagues &#8211; and given his K rate last year I don&#8217;t think he will &#8211; Murphy gets his job back on May first, and he&#8217;s a decent bargain. If Davis or Jacobs does take the job, I lose $2. Oh well.</p>
<p><strong>MI &#8211; Aki Iwamura ($4) &#8211; </strong>See Orlando Cabrera. I&#8217;ve never been an Iwamura fan&#8230; but he&#8217;s solid and proven. And at $4, I couldn&#8217;t resist. He went for $11 in NL Tout. Plus, he&#8217;s shown some crazy speed before (early last year) so who knows?</p>
<p><strong>OF &#8211; Ryan Braun ($41) -</strong> I usually don&#8217;t like to go over $40 for anyone, but for Ryan Braun, I made an exception. Braun was the first player I bought, and if I had had a $34 David Wright, I might not have gone in this direction. But I&#8217;m not complaining. Braun was my second highest rated player, and gives me tremendous 5-category production.</p>
<p><strong>OF &#8211; Manny Ramirez ($25) -</strong> Did I overpay for Manny? Maybe. But I&#8217;m a believer. He wasn&#8217;t great in the second half of last season, but he wasn&#8217;t bad either, and when Manny wants to hit, he hits. With his contract expiring at the end of the year, I have a feeling Manny has another great year.</p>
<p><strong>OF &#8211; Raul Ibanez ($16) &#8211; </strong>This was another one of those aging, somewhat dependable, value picks. I had Ibanez in the 20s, so I had to go to $16. He&#8217;s 37 and I&#8217;d have liked to handcuff him with Ben Francisco in the reserve round, but he also hit 34 homers and drove in 94 runs last year. This kind of power hitter, in that ballpark, and in that lineup, is well worth $16.</p>
<p><strong>OF &#8211; Scott Hairston ($1) -</strong> He&#8217;s not the Padres outfield I wanted (Will Venable) but he&#8217;s a potentially solid speed source for a buck in the end-game. If Gwynn or Venable struggles, Hairston gets a full time job. He&#8217;s got some speed, and the Padres plan on being extremely aggressive on the base paths this year, so there&#8217;s a lot of upside here.</p>
<p><strong>OF &#8211; John Bowker ($1) -</strong> May or may not have played himself into a starting job with a very good spring. Either way, between RF and 1B, Bowker will get enough at bats to earn back the $1 I paid for him, and there&#8217;s a lot of upside here should he get full time, or nearly full time at bats.</p>
<p><strong>U &#8211; Felipe Lopez ($3) -</strong> Lopez is another &#8220;value&#8221; pick at $3. The Cardinals infield, apart from Albert Pujols, is very shaky, and given how Lopez performed last season and how much LaRusa likes to mix up his lineups, he should be able to pick up a lot of at bats in 2010. Plus, there&#8217;s some speed upside here, and at 29, he&#8217;s not too old to start stealing bases again. Fingers crossed.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Pitching:</strong></span></p>
<p><strong>P &#8211; Wandy Rodriguez ($16) &#8211; </strong>This was too good of a price to pass up. I know Wandy is a bit of an injury risk, but his 2009 performance border on ace-caliber. I&#8217;ll just hold my breath all year and hope he doesn&#8217;t land on the DL.</p>
<p><strong>P &#8211; Ricky Nolasco ($20) -</strong> Nolasco should help in the invent that Wandy blows out his arm. He really is an ace caliber pitcher, and his 21 strikeout, 1 walk performance in the Grapefruit League adds too my confidence. Even with an ERA north of 5 last year, he&#8217;s one of the safest starting pitching investments out there.</p>
<p><strong>P &#8211; Billy Wagner ($19) &#8211; </strong>Wagner is still an elite closer. He still throws in the mid-90s, and last season, he struck out almost 15 batters per 9 innings.</p>
<p><strong>P &#8211; Chad Qualls ($17) -</strong> I don&#8217;t think many realize how good Chad Qualls was last year, but when you couple a 6.43 K/BB rate with a 56.8% GB rate, that&#8217;s going to work out well. Two straight seasons of sub-3 xFIPs make him worth the $17 investment. Having two closers in an NL-Only league doesn&#8217;t hurt either.</p>
<p><strong>P &#8211; Aaron Harang ($6) -</strong> Harang is as solid as they come, with a K/BB rate over 3 each of the last five seasons. His FB tendencies could hurt him in that ballpark, but he&#8217;s a good bet for an ERA around 4, and a good number of strikeouts. If he can pitch another 200 innings in 2010, he&#8217;s a steal at $6.</p>
<p><strong>P &#8211; Aaron Cook ($1) &#8211; </strong>Do I love Aaron Cook? Of course not. A K rate of 5 isn&#8217;t all that exciting. But double digit wins, and an ERA around 4? I love that if I can have it for $1.</p>
<p><strong>P &#8211; Felipe Paulino ($1) -</strong> Paulino&#8217;s flying way under the radar, but the 26 year old has some serious upside. His stuff is off the charts, with a fastball that sits around 95 MPH. His 2009 numbers (8.97 K/9, 3.41 BB/9, 2.46 K/BB, 4.10 xFIP in 98 innings) are good enough to be worth a $1 pickup. At the very least, it will be fun to watch him pitch.</p>
<p><strong>P &#8211; Garret Mock ($1) &#8211; </strong> I was hoping Scott Olsen would win the fifth starters spot in Washington, but Mock is a solid option as well. His minor league numbers say he can improve his control, and in 91 innings last year he flashed the ability to miss bats, and induce ground balls at an elite rate.</p>
<p><strong>P &#8211; Jenrry Mejia ($1) -</strong> Upside. I love Mejia&#8217;s long term future, and his stuff really is good enough to absolutely dominate the 8th inning, where he will likely start the year (he&#8217;s already made the team). K-Rod is shaky, both from a performance and injury standpoint, and if he goes down, I&#8217;m willing to be it&#8217;s Mejia who grabs the job.</p>
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