Projecting RBIs

Tex again?!

MLB needs help, but not a salary cap

Tex in Pinstripes

Another keeper list

So another keeper list has come in. Make sure to send in your keeper list if you would like keeper advice.

First lets get to the league settings and roster:

Hi, I need some help choosing who to keep in my fantasy baseball league.
It is a 12 team head to head league.
The categories are:  Batting: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OPS. Pitching:  W, SV K, HLD, ERA, WHIP.
Each team must keep a minimum of 10 keepers and a maximum of 12 keepers. If you keep 10, you get to pick before the teams who kept 11 or 12 keepers. 
 
My lineup:
C: Victor Martinez
1B: Albert Pujols
2B: Brandon Phillips
3B: Ryan Zimmerman
SS: Edgar Renteria
OF: Hideki Matsui
OF: Pat Burrell
OF: Magglio Ordonez
Util: Carlos Delgado
Util: Casey Blake
BN: Matt Kemp
BN: Paul Konerko
BN: Rafael Furcal
 
SP: Cole Hamels
SP: Jesse Litsch
SP: Aaron Cook
RP: BJ Ryan
RP: Ryan Franklin
P: AJ Burnett
P: Johan Santana
P: Scott Baker
BN: Daisuke Matsuzaka
BN: Dana Eveland
BN: Adam Wainright
BN: Matt Garza
BN: Brandon Webb
 
Thanks!

What I like to quickly do is get the no doubt guys on and off the list. Out of that roster I would say that Brandon Webb, Cole Hamels, Johan Santana, Albert Pujols, and Brandon Phillips are no doubt keepers. That gets us half way to the minimum and gives us a very solid top three in the rotation. 

Next who can we take off? Well Matsui, Blake, Konerko, Garza, Cook, Wainwright, and Eveland. I think the closest guy to making the list is probably Matsui but with the rumors the Yankees will go after Manny and Nady + Damon already crowding up the corner outfield I think it’s safe to say Matsui will have to fight for playing time. He could get time, I would rather avoid the risk. 

That leaves us with a bunch of guys and I will quickly cross off a few good names, not because I don’t think they are potentially worthy of a roster spot in 2009 but I’m not sure they are worthy of a top 10-12 round pick. Edgar Renteria goes, I like Furcal much better anyway. So do Delgado, Burell, Matsusaka, Franklin, and Litsch. I’ll also give the last spot to Burnett over Baker, not because I don’t like Baker, I think he’s a stud, but Burnett has far more strikeouts. As far as fantasy I think Burnett goes over Baker. 

Now we have 13 guys left and I think we really have the right 13 guys but we have to pair this down to 12. I think that at this point Furcal, Kemp, Ordonez, Ryan, and Burnett are close to no brainers and for me it’s between Ryan Zimmerman and Victor Martinez for the final roster spot. Both were early picks last year that didn’t work out but we only have a spot for one of them.

Last year Martinez was one of the worst players in the league, and limited playing time due to injury made things even worse. However he has put up OPS+ of 120-130 the four previous years playing catcher. Zimmerman was slightly better, but at the hot corner he put up OPS+ of 101, 107, and 114 his past three seasons. Ok, but not nearly the offensive performance we need. 

I think I would go with Martinez on this one. I have always been a huge fan of Vmart and even though he did struggle a lot in 2008 most of it was due to injuries. He didn’t have enough playing time to put up great numbers, and I think 2004-2007 speak for themselves. When healthy he is an offensive force at the shallower position. 

Now if trading is allowed in your league things change. You have a lot of quality guys and I think you should go out and try to pair down. Maybe Carlos Delgado and Cole Hamels gets you CC Sabathia. Just try to be creative in getting down to a roster of 12 really good guys and a bunch of fillers. Don’t leave a good player on your roster if you can help it in a non salary cap league. You definitely have 12 guys that are better than an 11th and 12th round pick so use your keeper spots and if you need help with a trade send it in and we can give you our opinion. 

Final list: 

1. Victor Martinez
2. Albert Pujols
3. Brandon Phillips
4. Rafael Furcal
5. Ryan Zimmerman 
6. Maglio Ordonez
7. Matt Kemp
8. Cole Hamels
9. Johan Santana
10. Brandon Webb
11. AJ Burnett
12. BJ Ryan

$16 Million for Burnett? Worth it.

Ok, so I said I would write an article about CC but really, who doesn’t know that CC is going to be a beast. I still have a few comments to make about the Mets bullpen (Hint: Omar Minaya is an idiot) but I thought I had to get this out.

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The news came down today that the New York Yankees had spent over $80 million on free agent starting pitcher AJ Burnett and I, like many Yankees fans, was a little disappointed. From a more objective standpoint I was in utter shock. Surely Brian Cashman had seen this guy get hurt time and time again. And did his 2008 season really support $16 million a year? My first impression was that someone else was calling the shots. I will make no secret that I don’t love Brian Cashman. He doesn’t seem to be the statistical genius of a Billy Beane or Theo Epstein and sometimes I just feel like I could run the team better than him. However he is a modern, progressive GM who understands sabermetrics and gets deals done. So why in gods name would he sign Burnett for $16 million a year? I set out to find the answer, and I did. AJ Burnett has been quite unlucky in his career, but if you look at his underlying statistics and you combine them in pretty freaking complicated ways you can see he’s actually pretty good.

AJ Burnett has always been a strikeout pitcher and that is not going to change. In 2008 he put up 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings, good for first place in the American league and third overall in major league baseball. I have to note that it’s down a strikeout every 3 games, but then I would also have to note that over the past 2 seasons he has put up by far the best strikeout rates of his career. The point is he strikes people out. That has never been his problem and never will be his problem.

Now let’s look at his walk rate. Since 2004 Burnett has been pretty average when it comes to his control and he has been very up and down. In his best year, 2006, Burnett walked 2.6 guys per nine innings. Not terrible, not good. This was when he was 30, right in the prime of his career, and we don’t necessarily expect him to reach this level again. However we didn’t expect what would happen in 2007 either; his walk rate leaped up to 3.6 per nine. That’s another walk every game, pretty significant. In 2008 he was unable to get it back down to his 2006 levels, but it didn’t get any worse. In fact it stayed at 3.5. This is pretty much in line with his career average of 3.7, and I think we can expect him to stay around there. There could be a small improvement of course, aging players tend to lose a little in strikeouts well before they lose a little in walks so the fact that he’s putting up great strikeout numbers and bad walk numbers makes me think there definitely could be a few things to iron out. When we put together those two stats we get a 2.7 K/BB rate. That’s pretty good. It’s not elite, but it’s pretty good. We also see he had the exact same K/BB rate in 2007, however his tRA and xERA are significantly worse in 2008. His xERA in 2007 was 3.45 and his xERA in 2008 was 3.75. That’s a huge difference. If it was still down at 3.45, I would be a little bit happier about the deal. So why did it go up?

First of all we have to look at his GB%. And here we do see a problem. In 2007, it was at 54.5%. In career context that was pretty good. In 2008 his GB% was 48. In career context that was pretty bad. His average is around 50%, which is very good considering his K rate. After looking at this we start to see how good of a season 2007 was. He had a 54% GB% and a good K rate. But was 2008 really that bad? He kept the same K rate and BB rate.  If he could have just kept the ball on the ground he would have been that 3.45 xERA pitcher right? In all likelihood, yes.  Now this leads to a very interesting debate. Can Burnett get his GB% back? Again in all likelihood yes. His GB% has been up and down his entire. He’s throwing his fastball in the range he has been since 2004. There is a possibility that Burnett lost a bit of his GB ability by throwing less fastballs and more curveballs in 2008. But again, it just doesn’t seem like enough.

So what does this mean? It means that Burnett didn’t get that much worse. That he did suffer a lot from a less effective sinking fastball and that he was most likely a little unlucky. Pitchers just don’t lose 6% off their groundball percentage by throwing essentially the same pitches in the same way. So if we can expect him to perform somewhere in the middle of his 2007 and 2008 seasons, than we can probably expect a 3.50 or so xERA and a 2.7 K/BB rate with a GB% regressing back to his career average of 50%.

So I just spent about 850 words telling you what to expect from AJ Burnett. But is he worth the contract. The three main factors I think went into this choice is performance, division, and injuries.  

As far as performance alone he is probably worth somewhere around what he got. Now of course this is all very subjective. Is any baseball player worth what they get played? But the only way to evaluate a player’s salary is to look at them in relation to the rest of the league. Burnett is getting paid in the Carlos Zambrano range, and I think that is pretty appropriate.  I am highly critical of Zambrano but when he signed the contract he was putting up an ERA in the mid 3’s where Burnett’s xERA should be in 2009. Now I’m not saying people should pay based on ERA and not xERA or tRA or something better like that, but xERA is just a better ERA and the Cubs probably don’t know what it means. Someone who puts up an ERA/xERA in the mid 3’s should be paid around 15-16 million in this market. Now there are plenty of pitchers getting paid less than this and putting up better stats, but we have to look at players in a similar performance group that signed extensions recently.

Now lets look at injuries. This could be the killer. In 2003 and 2004 Burnett had an injured elbow and missed significant time recovering from surgery. This injury flared up again in 2006, and he had shoulder problems in 2007. This is scary, and there is definitely a good chance something else flares up. But what we do have to be thankful for is that we haven’t seen those elbow problems since 2006. They plagued him the first few years of his career and appear to be gone. He had a little shoulder problem but nothing seems to have come out of that. I would be worried, but I don’t think Burnett has nearly reached Mark Prior or pre-2008 Rich Harden status. There is a possibility something comes up, but the chances of a major elbow injury seem slim at this point. I would be worried about the 5 years, but if anyone can absorb a bad contract in the last few years it’s the Yankees. At least for the next few years he shouldn’t be injured as much as most are saying he will be.

Now we have to look at the final, and probably deciding factor. The Yankees could have gone after Derek Lowe instead. Lowe was the better pitcher. He had a better BB rate, better GB% (possibly the best in the league) and pretty a pretty good K rate. The only problem is that he has been doing this in the national league west in a great pitchers park. The Yankees were concerned as to whether he could make the transition to the AL East and rightfully so. I’m not saying they made the right choice passing him up, but I see where they are coming from. Then you have AJ Burnett. Burnett has pitched the last few years, two of the best of his career, in the AL East and has done it very, very well. Even better he no longer has to face the Yankees and no gets to face the Blue Jays. He has proven he can put up mid 3’s xERA’s in the AL East and with the Yankees track record that is extremely important. He also did well against a few AL East opponents. He put up 10 dominate starts against the Yankees and Red Sox combined. I’m sure that he will have plenty of use out of division but the fact that he can handle the division does help his case.

Do I love this move? No. I would rather have had the Yankees go after Derek Lowe. He’s just a better pitcher, I don’t think the move to the AL east would hurt him that much. But I can see why the Yankees would want to go after Burnett, and I think they have many good points. Burnett is a talented pitcher with a few years left. He can pitch in the AL east and his injury problems have been slightly overblown. $16 million I am fine with. 5 years? Not so much.

Breaking News: CC Sabathia a Yankee

Big news breaking early this morning. CC Sabathia has told GM Brian Cashman he will be a Yankee, and pending final details on a contract and a physical he will. More to come on this and everything else when I’m not so tired.

Sabathia, Yankees may be finalizing contract

Yanks still leader in the clubhouse for CC, Dodgers looming

Krod to Mets, more to come…

Krod is a Met. Really all I have to say, but I will say more. This deal is un freaking believably stupid. Omar Mania should be fired. I will take his job, I am vaulenterring right now to help the Mets because whenever Krod goes to the National Leauge, well lets just say thats not good. Much more latter. 

And at 5:00 PM EST on ESPN (or ESPN2, not really sure which…) BBTN winter meatings special.

GM for a day – Yankees

I’m going to take a page out of Baseball Prospectus’ book and play GM for a day with the New York Yankees. Note that this is a very good scenario for the Yankees and a lot of these moves may not happen. I made sure to stay within budget and sign guys that I thought the Yankees had a legitimate shot at. I think the core of this team is in place and guys like Damon, Naddy, and Swisher will play a major role in this team come 2009.

Before we get into anything else lets look at what Yankees are (possibly) leaving this offseason.

-          Jason Giambi ($23,428,571)

-          Bobby Abreu ($16,000,000)

-          Ivan Rodriguez ($12,379,883)

-          Andy Petite ($16,000,000)

-          Mike Mussina ($11,071,029)

-          Carl Pavano ($11,000,000)

-          Chad Moeller ($700,000)

-          Sidney Ponson ($1,000,000)

That adds up to $91,579,483 off of the Yankees payroll. That’s almost $100 million worth of old, expensive players. With all of these guys gone here is a look at the depth chart. That leaves us with quite a few positions of need. First we need to replace Jason Giambi. Having already traded for Nick Swisher (adding $5.3 million to the payroll), so if we can’t sign anyone else he should be serviceable. We need a center fielder as Melky Cabrera has proven to be pretty horrible, and we need a few starters to replace about half of our again rotation.

If we want to keep our payroll at the same level as in 2008, we need to keep our spending under or around $85,000,000. That shouldn’t be too hard. Here we go……

1.       Sign CC Sabathia if possible. The rumored contract would add $23,300,000 to the payroll in 2009. Sabathia is the best pitcher in baseball; that is pretty clear. He is top 5 in tRA and can put up innings like few other pitchers out there. It really doesn’t matter how much it costs, this team needs Sabathia to anchor its staff. If Sabathia cannot be signed, the Yankees need to find a solid number 2 guy. I think Derek Lowe is the prefect choice. Lowe has put up such great numbers the last few years that I really don’t see him declining much when switching leagues.  

2.       Trade one or more of Robinson Cano, Hideki Matsui, and Melky Cabrera for a center fielder or starting pitcher. Melky can’t get the job done and Austin Jackson is still an unproven commodity. If needed, Nick Swisher could play center field but I don’t think that is necessary. Possible centerfield options include Matt Kemp and Randy Winn. We should add $5,000,000 to the payroll to compensate for possibly taking on a big salary, however if we went in the Kemp direction we might be able to cut salary.

3.       Sign Orlando Hudson to replace Cano. Hudson has good defensive skills, has an OBP around .370, and walks far more than he strikes out. Expect a contract in the $8,000,000 range, something similar to what Dustin Pedroia got from the Red Sox.

4.       Sign Ben Sheets. Sheets may have some injury concerns, but our deep farm system will keep us protected. Sheets has been flat out dominate and his injury concerns will keep his salary down below that of guys like Lowe or even the bigger injury concern Burnett. Why this guy isn’t being talked about as a top free agent is beyond  me, I would love to see him on the Yankees if possible. If Sheets resigns with Milwaukee, or ends up somewhere else somehow I would go with Randy Wolf. Wolf is also an injury risk but his strikeout rate and flat out dominate performances the past few seasons are worth it. Whoever we sign here probably adds another $10 million to the payroll.

After this the team still has about $35,000,000 left and there is one major deal they could look at doing.

5.       The Yankees should at least try to sign Mark Teixeira. According to multiple sources Tex is not  looking to sign with the Nationals, and is likely to sign with one of the Red Sox, Angels, or Yankees. The Red Sox are rumored to be making a big push for him so it would be hard, but with all the payroll room left and a new stadium to fill up the Yankees should at least give this a shot.  If this doesn’t go down we could see Swisher at first base, and it is even possible that we would re-sign first Jason Giambi. Teixeira would be great, but there are plenty of other options out there.

That would leave the Yankees with an opening day lineup of:

1.       LF – Johnny Damon

2.       SS – Derek Jeter

3.       1B – Mark Teixeira (Or Swisher, Giambi, etc.)

4.       3B – Alex Rodriguez

5.       RF – Xavier Naddy

6.       2B – Orlando Hudson

7.       C – Jorge Posada

8.       CF – Matt Kemp/Randy Winn/Gabe Kapler (Whoever they end up getting…)

9.       DH – Nick Swisher

Of course that lineup could be moved around. Having guys like Naddy, Swisher, and Damon gives us a lot of flexibility. Unless we end up trading Matsui, which is possible, he could rotate in as well.

And a rotation of:

1.       CC Sabathia/Derek Lowe

2.       Chein-Ming Wang

3.       Joba Chamberlain

4.       Ben Sheets/Randy Wolf

5.       Philip Hughes

I don’t think moving Joba to the bullpen is a good idea at all. He proved he could dominate as a starter, and his injury looks like more of a coincidence than anything. The bullpen managed fine without Joba, and for a stretch of the season was on of the best in baseball.

So there you have it. If the Yankees go ahead and sign Teixeira it would leave them with a payroll about $10,000,000 less than in 2008. If they wanted to go out and get a better backup catcher, one more starter, or a bullpen arm they could do that. Although I’m not sure the Yankees will be able to sign both Teixeira and Sabathia, they certainly have the payroll room to do so. I think the key thing is for the Yankees to realize that they have a good bullpen and a base for their rotation as well as a great offense and to use their payroll room to sign a few premium guys to build around that. With that starting rotation and that lineup it would be hard for the Yankees to be anything but favorites to go to the world series, however as we have seen before injuries and bad luck can prevent any team from doing what they should. A good starting lineup, rotation, and bullpen only get you so far. You need to have depth to win in major league baseball and with the high level talent in the Yankees farm system and versatile guys like Nick Swisher and Johnny Damon  I think they have that.

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