Top second year hitters

With all the hype around David Price and Matt Wieters it’s easy to forget that amazing crop of offensive rookies we had last year. Forgetting them would be dangerous though as quite a few are poised for a break. Here I’m going to rank the top few second year guys. Some of these guys had a little service time in 07, but nothing much. 

1. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays – After Arod and Wright this guy is probably the third guy taken off the board at the hot corner, and for good reason too. Longoria hit .272 with 27 bombs last year but that’s just the start. He will easily pass 30 homers on his way to 35 next year and his average will improve. He was actually much better in the second half, aside from a high GB% that dragged down his homers. This guy is probably a third round pick. 35 homer upside, batting average has a lot of room to improve. Looks like a young David Wright. I could see him being a first rounder in 2010. 

2. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds - Jay Bruce over Chris Davis? What? Yep. Jay Bruce is an absolute monster in the making. 17 homers in the second half, .244 BA almost entirely because of bad luck. A legitimate .320 hitter in the minor leagues. Expect a Ryan Braun like explosion in 2009, first round value in 2010. This guy could be Matt Holliday-in-Coors good.

3. Chris Davis, CI, Rangers - Davis doesn’t have as much upside as Bruce, however there is an argument to be made he will have a better 2009. 40 homers are within reach right away, could hit .290. Hitting in a great ballpark and lineup.

4. Geovany Soto, C, Cubs – This is a bit of a low spot for him right? He won rookie of the year last year and he plays catcher. I have nothing against .285 and 20 homers but I just don’t think he has any more upside. 25 homers is possible. Maybe he could get back to being the .300 hitter he was in the minors. But the guys above him should all hit 35 homers next year, I just can’t put him any higher. 

5. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox - Ellsbury was a very highly thought of rookie last season, and he delivered. .280 and 50 steals are good, although don’t expect that BA to go up much. I could see .280, 50 steals again. But those 50 steals could easily be 40 or even 35 with that OBP.

6. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona – Justin Upton has the most power in MLB. This guy has Arod type upside. His bat speed is the best in the majors, as is his average home run distance. He could hit 40 bombs in Petco. His K rate went down in the second half, his overall walk rate was better. In his prime he could hit 50 home runs. The problem is he’s 21 years old. He’s probably going to hit sub .270, but expect 30 home runs and some of that minor league speed could be back.