Rangers best outfielder may not be named Josh.

I’m going to pull a Matthew Berry on you. Sorry, I have to.

Player A – .302/.357/.551, 34 HR, 20 SB
Player B – .300/.369/.530, 30 HR, 9 SB

Now you probably guessed by now that your supposed to pick player A, and then I’ll say “But wait, player A is going 5 rounds after player B.” Yeah, I know it’s old, but it’s true.

Player B is Josh Hamilton. That .300 BA (ok, it’s really an xBA) is great, as is the 30 homers, and he even chips in in steals. He’s gets on base a solid rate and his SLG is good. Probably not second round numbers, but third round seems reasonable. Personally I think he’s overrated, but he’s still very good.

Player A is Nelson Cruz. And yes I cheated a little, that’s his major league equivalents + major league stats. But theoretically that’s what he would have done had he played a full season in MLB. He also hit .330 with 7 homers in 115 MLB at bats, so it’s not like those numbers were all piled up in the minor leagues. And look at those numbers. His .302 xBA is a little higher than Hamilton’s, but not by much. He has a lower OBP, but a higher SLG and OPS. When it comes to fantasy though this guy seems to blow Josh out of the watter. Not only does he hit 4 more home runs, he actually steals 11 more bases, and hits in the middle of the same lineup.

Ok so MLEs aren’t perfect, but you get the point. This guy is really good. Here’s the reason I would much rather have Cruz. While Hamilton’s ADP at Mock Draft Central is 10 (told you he was overrated), Cruz doesn’t appear in the top 75 and I can tell you he’s going as late as the 15th round in most drafts.

Lets look at some other guys who didn’t put up the same (or at least better) numbers as Cruz last year:

Alfonso Soriano – .282/.343/.582, 29 HR, 19 SB

Carl Crawford – .276/.319/.400, 8 HR, 25 SB

Ryan Braun – .294/.331/.553, 37 HR, 14 SB

Look I’m not saying to draft Cruz ahead of all these guys. A) Because his numbers could very well go down a little and B) Because you don’t have to. I’m pointing out how huge of a sleeper Nelson Cruz is and how overrated some of these outfielders are (although not Braun). Sure he might hit .285 (closer to his real BA last year) and he could hit 30 homers and only steal 15 bases but who’s going to complain? He’s hitting in the same lineup as the aforementioned Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler, so he’s gonna score a ton of runs and get a ton of rbis. The guy is a fantasy stud.

So far my sleeper team:

OF – Chris Dickerson
OF – Nelson Cruz

I’ll fill out my outfield over the weekend, and head to the infield (or maybe the rotation/bullpen).