Pedro Martinez – A return to greatness?

Pedro Martinez doesn’t have to do anything this year. He is easily one of the greatest pitchers of all time, and based off his performances in 1999 and 2000, I would argue he’s the greatest pitcher to ever live. But the vast majority of baseball analysts think he’s done. Their argument is that Pedro has lost his velocity. He has no control and can’t strike guys out. Personally, I think they are wrong, but there are a lot of factors here.

Let’s start with the whole velocity issue. In my opinion, it is absolutely ridiculous. Sure he isn’t throwing mid 90s anymore, but when was the last time he threw in the mid 90s? While I don’t have full data going back to his days in Boston, I would guess it was something like 2002 or 2003, maybe even earlier. This is the data I do have:

2005: 88.0
2006: 87.1
2007: 86.2 (limited innings)
2008: 87.7

There was a slight trend downwards, but 2008 was not far off from his previous 3 years in New York. In fact, his fastball was about as fast as it was in 2005 when his ERA was 2.82. His fastball velocity should not limit his ability to get people out.

There is something that can be found in his pitch data though. Pedro Martinez doesn’t throw his slider as often. In 2005 he threw it 12.5% of the time. In 2008, he threw it just 1.6% of the time. He has made a bit of a transition, throwing 7.3% cutters (compared to below 1% in 2005), a few more change ups, and a few more fastballs.

This is where I see an argument opening up. Sliders put a lot of stress on the arm, and Pedro, coming back from Tommy John surgery, had every reason to put away that slider. Health wise it’s a slam dunk, as each pitch puts a different strain on your arm, so throwing a lot of different pitches can keep your arm healthy. What does this all mean? Pedro’s drop in K rate could be real.

But lets move on from pitch selection, as many, many pitchers have made successful pitch selection transitions.

One of my favorite things to look at in evaluating a pitcher is how disciplined batters are against them, and when we look at these numbers we do see Martinez wasn’t exactly the same pitcher in 2008.

First of all, batters swung at his pitches less. They were seeing them better, and when they didn’t like the pitch they didn’t swing. This is a disturbing realization about his stuff. It just wasn’t as good. They also made FAR more contact, at a rate of almost 80%. This isn’t good. They swing at less of his pitches, but still end up making more contact.

We need to put this in context to understand it. Pedro Martinez has always been around the middle in a lot of these stats. For example, his 47.7 swing% from 2005 would place him around 40th in the league. This says a lot about him as a pitcher. Some pitchers get strikeouts by making batters swing at pitches they can’t hit (Cole Hamels, Johan Santana, Randy Johnson) while others get strikeouts by making batters take pitches in the strikezone (Mike Mussina, Edison Volquez, Oliver Perez). Pedro Martinez on the other hand has such a range of stuff, he can do both. The trend of batters swinging at less pitches is hard to read. On one hand, not having that slider anymore means he has to fool people with a changeup or cutter, so becoming a swing-less pitcher is maybe a good idea. On the other hand, it seems like people are seeing his pitches pretty well.

On that note, let’s look at the CT% against he has put up. His 2005 level would have placed him top 5 in the league, however he is now around 80%. Without the slide, it is blatantly obvious that Martinez isn’t the same pitcher, as he won’t miss the amazing number of bats he used to. That said, he can still succeed with this kind of K rate. Batters made less contact off Pedro than off of Josh Becket, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Ben Sheets, and Justin Verlander (and I’m sure many other great pitchers). They may be seeing the ball better, but he still has nasty stuff and his K rate should be around 8.

So far we have established that Pedro Martinez’s drop in K rate is real. But what does it matter? He still can strike out upwards of 8 guys per 9 innings, a very good rate. The biggest problem, by a large margin, is the massive rise in walk rate he suffered. This is where the injuries come in. Pitchers who experience hamstring injuries often have issues with control when coming back, and Pedro is no different. Before last year he hadn’t posted a BB rate above 3 since 1995 with the Expos. Historically when pitchers get older their control is one of the skills that stays constant, so I’m willing to bet Pedro will bounce back to his career average 2.5 BB rate next season. This is obviously speculation, but it’s good speculation.

There are some other factors, first of which is injuries. Pedro wont ever be confused with Cal Ripken or Lou Gehrig here, but there is some reason to like his chances of staying healthy. He could suffer another leg injury, the kind that derailed his 2008 season completely, but so could any pitcher. He’s had a history of leg injuries, but it’s way overblown. His arm however should be fine. He throws an 88 MPH fastball which shouldn’t put too much strain on his arm, doesn’t throw too many sliders, has quite a few different pitches, and throws a lot of stress free changeups. He proved his arm can hold up after TJ, and I think he is actually one of the safer bets to stay arm injury free.

Then what about his age? He’s not that old. He’s 37, a full 8 years younger than Randy Johnson, who just last year put up a K/BB rate around 4. Pitchers have pitched this late in their careers (Johnson, Clemens, Mussina, Maddux) and with his pitch selection and overall craftiness, Martinez has a shot to join that list.

So what should we expect? I’d say K rate of about 8, BB rate of about 2.5, his GB% should hover around 40% and his ERA should be in the mid 3′s with a good WHIP. All possible. And who does this remind us of? Umm yeah Johan Santana, who put up almost identical stats last year, aside from a lucky ERA. And Johan is also getting up there with a declining K rate and some injury concerns. I’m not saying pick Pedro in the second round, or trade for him giving up Johan, but I’m saying his skill set is still at the elite level. He is a risk of course. He could pull another hammy and his season (or career) could be done. Maybe I’m wrong and he doesn’t get that control back. And maybe the absolute abandonment of the slider destroys his K rate next year. But I just don’t see how any of these things are that likely to happen. As soon as he signs on somewhere (how could he not?) pick him up, draft him in the late rounds, or spend a buck on him in your auction. You (probably) wont be sorry you did, and worse case you lose a late round flyer and pick someone else up in his place.