BJ Upton: Where did the power go?

If I told you BJ Upton regressed in 2008, you would probably say duh. Just look at the numbers..

2007: .300, 24 HR, 22 SB, 82 RBI, 86 Runs.
2008: .273, 9 HR, 44 SB, 66 RBI, 85 Runs.

The thing is, I don’t think Upton regressed. Not at all. Sure his power numbers plummeted, and he hit almost 30 points lower, but in my opinion most of that was due to injuries. While he carries a little extra risk, I honestly think Upton will be a top 5 pick in 2010. Let’s look at the individual cats:

Speed: This is one place where Upton actually improved over 2007, and that shouldn’t be a surprise. While he gets hammered for the strikeouts, Upton gets on base. A lot. His OBP over the past 2 years is .384. Few posses his combination of on base skills and raw speed. Expect 40+ steals.

Power: This is where everyone says Upton regressed. Sure, he hit 15 less homers and his SLG dropped 107 points, but there is a clear reason for that. Last year Upton was hurt most of the season and it showed. His GB% shot up by 7.6 points. This is totally understandable. But how do we know he still has raw power?

Average HR distance:
2007: 394.8
2008: 406.8

That means a lot. In 2008 not only did BJ improve his raw power numbers, but he actually ranked in the top 10 in the league. His average HR went more than 8 feet further than AL home run leader Miguel Cabrera. Also worth noting that he hit 37 doubles last year, 12 more than the season before. 30 homers well within reach.

Batting average: Some regression was expected here just because he got pretty lucky in 2007. That said, Upton improved tremendously and with his amazing combination of power and speed I think he can post a .300 BA again. In 2007 his biggest weakness was his 68% contact rate. In 2008, that jumped all the way to 75%. Of course he still doesn’t make optimal contact, but 75% is very, very ok. For example, Alex Rodriguez’s CT% since 2004 is 77% and he hasn’t once had that over 80%. He’s also hitting .303 over that timeframe. If you have power and you have speed, a 75% CT rate is OK. I expect him to hit in the .280-.290 range, but that’s not bad at all. If he puts up the power-speed that he should, a .290 BA makes him a top 5 pick. There’s also tons of room for him to improve. The kind of batting eye he displays makes it possible that he will significantly improve his CT%. If he gets that over 80% watch out.

Overall if he were still a MI he’d basically be Hanely Ramirez (at least that would be his upside). As it stands, I think he could be a .300 30/30 outfielder within the next couple of years, and that would easily make him a top 5 pick.

Also have to mention the added risk. He did have shoulder surgery in the offseason which could keep him hitting the ball on the ground. If it does, expected a repeat of 2008. Is that all that bad? No. A .275 hitter with 10 and 40 hitting in that lineup has a whole lot of value, and is still 3rd round type player. But that is downside compared to his Carlos Beltran type upside. He will start the season on the DL, but that is for a relatively minor hand injury so it shouldn’t effect his production in 2009.