Phillies!

Congrats to the world champion Philadelphia Phillies, who beat the Rays in 5 games tonight. I never thought the Phillies would get this far but I am happy for them and for the fans of Philadelphia. If you are stuck with the losingest team in pro sports history, at least you should get a few world series on the way. 

And for Rays fans, this was a great season whether or not you won the world series. You go from pick 1 to pick 29. That’s pretty good. The Rays were here at the start of the season, were here in the middle of the season, were here in the playoffs, and will be here for a long long time.

Site news, the World Series (again)

We were supposed to have the rankings up today, and then the power went out most of the weekend and we haven’t had a chance to do any of them! Anyway sorry we didn’t have the rankings up at some point today but really we are quite a long ways away from most drafts so hopefully it doesn’t have a negative affect on your league. Again if you have any questions, keeper lists, etc. please feel free to email them to me and I will answer quickly and post on the site.

As far as what we have been up to lately, a few thinks. First we are working on the rankings as always but that becomes really difficult when the power is out and you can’t get on your computer. We got a few things done on Friday, but other than that we are still a few days away with the catchers. This is a very busy time for Fantasy Bullpen and when we don’t have power for a long period of time it can set us back so please be patient.

What we are working on is a possible re-working of the site in ways we think will benefit our readers and users. We are going to be adding in more interactivity and user generated content to allow everyone to gather the best possible fantasy information and make the best possible fantasy choices. We hope we can finish working on these changes over the next month or so and get the site working the way it should by the start of the season so stayed tuned for that.

Finally, on the topic of the world series (which I missed by the way due to the power outage) there really isn’t much new going on. The Phillies were able to win last night but so far it’s 2-1 with no team showing a significant talent advantage that could put this series out of reach. It’s going to be close, and it’s going to go a few more games before we know who wins. As much as Bud Selig would have liked to see Dodger-Red Sox I think we are seeing a match-up of a couple good teams that should be good for a long, long time. Then again, the Red Sox aren’t going anywhere and the Dodgers are just getting better so either way this would have turned out well.

All and all we are working really hard to get a few things out to you guys ASAP (or at least in time for your drafts), so although these rankings are taking a while, please don’t be discouraged! We will try to have them up sometime early this week, and hopefully we can unveil our new site sometime soon as well. Keeper, draft, etc. questions can be sent to alex.geshwind@fantasybullpen.com, as can any comments or questions related to the site.

Catchers rankings, world series

I know I haven’t  posted a lot this week but I have been working on Fantasy Bullpen’s catchers rankings and there hasn’t been much news to post about anyway. Over the weekend I will finish the catchers projections, and post the preliminary list here some time on Sunday. It would take to much time and space to post all of the projections so you will have to wait for the draft kit to get those, however I will definitely be using them in my keeper analysis. Please keep sending in keeper questions and I will continue to respond to them.

As far as the world series - it’s going pretty much the way it was always going to go. For two teams to make it to the world series they have to have been both good enough to make it to the playoffs and hot enough to win a couple of series. When a world series isn’t close it represents a massive talent gap, and there is very little talent gap between these two teams.  I still like the Rays, probably in 6 or 7 games, but it’s the world series so anything can and will happen.

World Series game 1: Hamels vs. Kazmir

For the first time in recent memory I am actually looking forward to watching a world series game. I never like watching the playoffs when the Yankees are out, and with the combination of poor broadcasting and extreme lack of sabermetric involvement watching the world series has been even more painful. This is different though because of the two pitchers starting this game. Cole Hamels and Scott Kazmir. High school pitchers drafted the same year, only two picks apart who have both dominated since being brought up to the big leagues. This holds an even bigger significance to me, as a couple years ago I traded Kazmir for Hamels (not straight up though) and so I have been comparing these two guys ever since (even though neither is on my team anymore).

From a fantasy perspective I think Kazmir was a little more valuable coming into the season. The problem for Kazmir has been an early season injury that has limited him to about 150 innings, as apposed to 200 of them last season. Because of this, Kazmir will probably be undervalued on draft day, even though all of his stats in 2008 were virtually identical to 2007. Kazmir is the kind of guy I would look for to lead my staff next year. 

Hamels on the other hand is a little bit of a concern for me. He pitched far more innings this season than he should have, and his bad injury history makes me worry about him. Although he pitched well this season, he was not as good as the previous year and not nearly as good as Kazmir. His K/9 dropped drastically and again he pitched way too many innings. This is the kind of guy I would look to avoid on draft day next season, unless you can get him at a good price. I’m kind of doubting that though after this fabulous post season which will make his value skyrocket as his stats stay relatively the same. 

With these two pitchers the one thing you have to realize is that while both of them are very good, Kazmir is going to put up the higher strikeout numbers and thus be the more valuable pitcher at least from a fantasy perspective. I’m 99% sure that Kazmir will be in my top 10 pitchers for next season, I can’t necassarly say the same for Hamels. I might be doing a live blog tonight of game 1, but I might have to wait until another game if I’m to busy.

Congrats to the Rays!

I am proud to say I believed in the Rays as playoff contenders this spring, but I did not think they had that much of a shot against Boston. I am very glad they proved me wrong. One thing I would like to add about these playoffs from a fantasy perspective is that you guys shouldn’t get carried away going after players for postseason success. BJ Upton has had a monster season, but I would still put him somewhere in the third round. Chase Utley has struggled, but he is still a first rounder. I will have a full world series preview tomorrow and may even live blog one or two of the games. Really excited to see a couple of great teams in the world series this year and good luck to both of them.

Joba and the Red Sox

Sad news for Yankees fans, Joba Chamberlain was arrested for DUI in Nebrakska. The last time this happened within the organization it was Steve Swindle and we all saw his career go up in smoke. Doesn’t seem like Joba is going to miss any time, and I doubt this hurts his development but its not a good thing at all.

Better news though for Yankees fans comes from this article by John Heyman in which he basically says the Yankees will be going after everyone with a pulse this offseason and throwing all of their money at them. Either Cashman has finally realized minor leaguers are unproven midget versions of career backups or he has completely lost control of this organization. Either way, this will probably help the Yankees. 

And finally the Red Sox won last night again, forcing a game 7 in Tampa. My original prediction for this series was Sox in 7 and I’m sticking with it. I did think that Kazmir would slam the doors on the Sox a couple of days ago, but I guess that proves how impossible it is to predict individual baseball games. 

I’ll try to write something about how the projections are going, but lets just say they are going to take a while! Right now I’m on my fourth player on my first team but I’m speading things up a bit and the kit will be ready on time.

Draft kit update!

Over the last couple of days (and for the rest of the weekend) I have been working on and will be working on projections for the 2009 draft kit. Right now I’m working to recruit a few other blogs into this project (run a blog, think you can help, email me please!) and we hope to launch the kit sometime before Christmas. Anyway if you email me a question or keeper list I will respond and I’ll post some links to anything interesting I find but I probably wont do any meaningful posting until Monday.

Another keeper list

Ben writes:

Hey Alex,

Was hoping you could help me out with some tough decisions for my keeper league next year. After winning the league twice in a row, my team failed to come together this year, and I ended up throwing the season in about June for some keepers. My league’s specs: 10 teams, auction-style ($260 budget), C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, IF, 4 OFs, Util, 10 Ps. No innings cap, 5×5 standard with obp instead of avg. We have a three year cap on keepers, so that a player can only be kept two times and then must be put back in the market.

My options include:
Votto for $3 (2 years remaining)
BJ Upton for $5 (1 year remaining)
Chipper Jones for $15 (2 years remaining)
Carlos Quentin for $1 (2 years remaining)
Nick Markakis for $9 (1 year remaining)
Jay Bruce for $2 (2 years remaining)
Headley, Zimmerman, Ian Stewart, Stephen Drew, and Tulowitzki for $1 each (all 2 years remaining), but I don’t expect to seriously consider any of them, given my other options.

Andrew Miller for $1 (2 years)
Clayton Kershaw for $5 (2 years)
James Shields for $1 (1 year)
Mike Pelfrey for $1 (2 years)
Yovani Gallardo for $1 (1 year)
Chris Perez for $1 (2 years)

I can keep 7 players. I’m pretty set on keeping Shields, Quentin, Upton, Markakis, and Gallardo (but please convince me otherwise if you disagree). I also really want to keep Bruce, but that would fill up all 4 of my OF spots, which is not the most appealing proposition heading into an auction.

Your thoughts?

First, let me say that I agree on your selections of Quentin, Upton, Markakis, Shields, and Gallardo. I think they are the top 3 hitters, and top 2 pitchers on your list. After that, I think your other selections have to depend on who is likely to be available. For example, if you do not think any premium talent will be available I would go the extra $15 to take Chipper Jones. Even with the injury risk that always comes with him, he continues to put up sustainable skills and has proved able to convert that into production. In that case, I would go with Jones, and one of Bruce, Votto, Kershaw, and Perez.

If you however think there will be some top tier talent, I would go with a couple of younger, cheaper, and better value options in Jay Bruce and Clayton Kershaw. I understand that handcuffing your outfield this early could be an issues, but having Upton, Quentin, Markakis, and Bruce filling 80% of your outfield for $17 dollars is a good problem to have. I think that would provide you with the additional outfield spot in order to go after a Matt Holliday or Grady Sizemore if they are available. Kershaw is also an easy choice in my opinion because he although he costs a little more than Perez, Pelfrey, etc. he is by far the best pitcher of the bunch, the youngest, and the one with the highest upside. In 2008, Kershaw put up a mediocre 4.35 tRA. That is pretty good however if you consider that he was 20 years old. The average pitcher of his age is probably at advanced A ball, and similarly aged pitcher like Phil Hughes and Felix Hernandez also had their ups and downs over the past few seasons. His minor league track record is amazing, with tRA’s between 2.70 and 3.30 over the past few seasons to go a long with a ton of strikeouts and barely any walks. You can’t expect Kershaw to be perfect next season, but a lot of growth in 2009, and even more in 2010, should be a bargain for 5 bucks.

My point is this: If there isn’t much out there, pay whatever you have to to keep your talent, and try to pick up a few sleepers (I’ll revel those in the upcoming draft kit so check back before you auction) and you should have a great shot at winning your league. If you think that the auction pool will be full of talent however, drop Chippers semi-dead weight contract and go after the stud first rounders to fill out your roster.

Want help with your keeper selections? Email mailbag@fantasybullpen.com with the subject name of keepers, keeper help, 2009 keeper list, etc. so that I know what it is. If it is really, really urgent please say so! I’ll get back to you with in a day or so anyway.

Looking back: 2005 top 5 prospects

One of the most difficult aspects of fantasy baseball is predicting the performance of rookies and minor leaguers. Very few owners win leagues without rookies, and a lot of them loose leagues because of them. To improve as fantasy owners, we have to look back at the mistakes we have made in the past, so lets take a look at a top prospects list from the 2005 Rotowire magazine.

1. B.J. Upton - We all know how big of a prospect Upton was for a few years, and for a while it looked like he might not live up to the hype, but Upton’s big time combination of power and speed have created a fantasy monster. As his batting eye and patience continue to develop, he has a shot at becoming a first round player. Upton is definitely worthy of the top spot, not neccarily the best pick but a good enough one, especially at the time.

2. Casey Kotchman - Kotchman is another guy who has slowly developed, however I do not believe he has become the player he was expected to be. Kotchman has decent power, however he has not been able to turn doubles into home runs and his slugging percentages is not that high. His on base percentage last season was .328, far below where he needs to be. Overall, Kotchman’s performance decreased significantly with his OPS+ dropping more than 20 points. I don’t believe that Kotchman will ever be that good of a player, and placing him at the second spot was a mistake on the part of Rotowire.

3. Delmon Young - Most people really liked Delmon Young. I was never a huge fan, but hist struggles so far in his major league career have been worse than even I predicted. This guy has hit 10 and 13 home runs and his OPS+ has stayed at or below the league average. He has decent speed, something that could keep him rostered in some leagues, but over a full season 14 steals really shouldn’t mean that much. I don’t understand what everyone saw in this guy, he just isn’t that good at playing baseball.

4. Gavin Floyd - Floyd was a huge prospect who struggled once he got to the major league level. Although it may look as though he has finally reached his uber-prospect level, he hasn’t. He has great control, however his mediocre strikeout rate and terrible track record of keeping balls in the park are going to prevent him from ever being a serviceable major league starter. I would look for this guy to struggle in a big way in the future, and never be the 4th best prospect Rotowire thought he would be.

5. Jeff Francis - After two straight years of steady improvement Francis looked like he could survive without striking a lot of guys out. He took about 10 steps back this season however, with decreases in his strikeout rate, increases in his walk rate, and a lot more home runs per nine innings. Francis is a serviceable major league starter who could be well above average at some point during his career, but without the ability to get those strikeouts he is never going to live up to this spot.

Mike Mussina’s HOF case

I watched Mike Francesa on YES today. I don’t usually watch something like that, because I know it will result in quite a few nightmares, however it was the only thing on and they were talking about baseball (oh wait, even worse!) So when I turned it on, Francesa and his two guest were talking about Mike Mussina’s season and whether he deserved to be in the hall of fame. Mike of course said “No, he doesn’t have 300 wins.” Even more sickening, he said that no one should complain about the “rules.” That he didn’t make the “rule” but it was a “rule” in Major League Baseball that pitchers with 300 wins got in, and pitchers without 300 wins didn’t. It’s a stupid rule, and it’s not even a rule, and yet we have no right to question it? Anyway, here is Mike Mussina’s rather impressive case for the hall of fame.

Why shouldn’t he make it? His wins do not matter. Don’t pay attention to them. They are wins, they mean NOTHING. He was dominant, not in the Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez way but in his way.

Why should he make it? He has a very impressive career K/BB rate, better than command specialist Greg Maddux. I understand this is not the be all end all. In fact, Jon Lieber has one of the greatest K/BB rates of all time, even better than Mussina’s. No one would consider him a great pitcher however, as he struggled to get balls in play in favorable spots and his health was always a concern. Mussina however did not give up too many long balls, and along with a good amount of strikeouts, had impeccable control. He had this almost every year of his career, and his prime was one of the best in terms of K/BB in Major League history.

Why will he make it? Grey ink test. I don’t like the Grey Ink test. It uses outdated stats that, at this point, it’s creator Bill James would laugh at. However that is not the point. The point is, it is a measure Bill James created to measure longevity and the likelihood someone will make the hall of fame. Mike Mussina is 23rd ahead of guys like Pedro Martinez, Jim Palmer, and Bob Gibson. I hate the Grey Ink test, and I will certainly not say Mussina is better than Pedro Martinez, however I do think this will factor into the voters’ decision about Mussina. It’s sad that the one Bill James thing likely to make a difference will be this!

Do I think Mussina will make the hall of fame? I kind of doubt it. People can point to his lack of wins, his lack of “dominance”, etc. but in the end he was one of the best pitchers in the steroid era pitching in the offense heavy American League East.

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