Beckett placed on DL, other AL N&N

Baltimore Orioles third basemen Melvin Mora should be out about a week with a strained right hamstring. Mora says that it “could be a week, or less,” and his manager says that right now they don’t think they will be putting him on the disabled list. Mora has been on fire since the all star break, hitting .393 with a 1.160 OPS in the second half with12 home runs and only 14 strikeouts. This does not look like a long term injury.

Even though Boston Red Sox ace Josh Beckett was placed on the 15 day disabled list (retroactive to August 18th) with right elbow inflammation, manager Terry Francona says his tests came out “awesome,” and because the move was retroactive to the 18th, Beckett is scheduled to come of the DL and start Friday’s opener against the Rangers.

Meanwhile in Cleveland, Victor Martinez is returning from the DL. He is expected to split time between three positions, catcher, DH, and first. Martinez struggled early in the year before getting injured, however if hes available in your league you should pick him up. Im going to take his 2300 previous at bats before his 200 this year. And those 2300 ABs have been good, this year being his first full season with an OPS+ under 120.

Detroit Tigers third basemen Miguel Cabrera left Friday’s game with a mild staring to his left pectoral muscle. He is expected to play sometime this weekend and the injury is not considered serious.

New York Yankees Joba Chamberlain is ready to be activated, and should be Monday. He threw 35 pitches and felt no tightness at all. He is expected to return to the bullpen, and baring an injury to Mariano Rivera this is really going to hurt his value.

AL News & Notes (8/27)

New York – Yankees Pitcher Joba Chamberlain said that he doesn’t believe that he’ll need to go on a minor league rehab assignment simply to face hitters before coming off the DL. He’s set to throw 45 pitches in his next session on Thursday.  Joba may be able to return early next week.  It is not set whether Joba will return as a Starter or a Reliever.

Boston – J.D. Drew has been placed on the DL, in response, the Red Sox have traded for Mark Kotsay.  With Drew hitting the shelf, give a look to Cruz or Dickerson, see more in NL News & Notes.

Texas – Josh Hamilton was out of the lineup on Wednesday.  Do not worry, it was due to an abscessed tooth, and should not cause any long-term problems.  It may annoy him, which he should be able to handle with a simple anti-biotic or something of that nature.

Los Angeles – The Angels Chone Figgins’ missed Wednesday’s game with irritation in his left big toe.  The Angels also lost both Howie Kendrick due to a Left Hamstring injury, and Erik Aybar to the same reason.  The severities of these injuries is not known, we will be updating these players statuses Thursday Night.

NL News & Notes (8/27)

Pittsburgh – Craig Hansen has been optioned to AAA Indianapolis in favor of RHP Jesse Chavez.  On Tuesday night, Hansen walked in the tying and go-ahead runs against the Cubs, he was sent to AAA the next morning.  In 30 1/3 innings with Boston this season, Hansen had 3.48 tRA, with Pittsburgh (10 IP), he had a horrible 9.35 tRA. In those combined 40 1/3 innings, he had a horrible K/BB rate of 0.80.  If you own this guy, I can’t imagine any active RP that are available in your league.

St. Louis – Chris Carpenter (shoulder) will have a bullpen session Wednesday, but he continues to describe weakness around his shoulder.  With St. Louis’ playoffs hopes fading away in the 2008 season, if they cannot make a run, and if Carpenter does not feel 100% expect Carpenter to be shut down for the rest of the 2008 campaign.

Atlanta – Mark Kotsay has been traded to the Boston Red Sox, resulting in the Braves calling up Outfielder Josh Anderson.  Kotsay does not have enough fantasy value to be owned in many leagues, but if he is, give a look to Chris Dickerson or Nelson Cruz, both succeeding in their short-campaigns in the bigs after very successful minor league tenors.

Houston – Kazuo Matsui is expected to return from the DL on Monday after fielding grounders and hitting from a tee on Tuesday.  Matsui is not much more than an average fantasy player, he should be able to return and help your team with his solid .763 OPS.

Los Angeles – The Dodgers have recalled Blake Dewitt from AAA on Wednesday.  Although failing in his first attempt with the Dodgers this season (.688 OPS), he has succeeded in AAA with an OPS of .850. (Dewitt was 11-19 in his last 4 games with AAA Las Vegas including a 5-for-5 Sunday.

The next Moneyball?

Looking for the next Moneyball story? Stuart Sternberg might just have it. When the former Wall Street investor, and baseball outsider, became principle managing partner of the Tampa Bay Rays in 2005 the franchise was in shambles with the lowest attendance in baseball and annual last place finishes in the American League East. Sternberg decided to separate from the old regime, put quantitative analysis in place and started running his team like he would anything else on Wall Street. The resulting turnaround has put the Rays in first place, and their front office in the spotlight.

In May of 2004, Stuart Sternberg purchased a 48% share in the (then) Tampa Bay Devil Rays. A little over a year and a half later, he took over as the managing general partner of the team and appointed fellow Wall Street investor Matthew Silverman as president. Silverman then brought in Andrew Friedman as general manager. In October of 2005, Sternberg promised “dramatic change” to the franchise, and that is exactly what he delivered.

Watching the E:60 piece on Sternberg and his management is kind of like reading Moneyball. His first step was to identify value in the market or industry. He didn’t exactly mean players, more like teams. He recognized that the Devil Rays, with the lowest net worth in all of the major leagues, had amazing potential to grow. With the right people and the right plan in place he could make a ton of money (and he has, according to E:60 he has made over S100 million since taking over as principle owner).

It gets even more Moneyball when you here Silverman starts talking about exploring “market inefficiency.” The exact words used over and over again by Billy Beane in Moneyball. Sternberg also brings up a very, very good point that I have always believed in. If you think someone can do a job, why wait? Its like the people who say “Roger Clemens will make the hall of fame, he just has to wait a few years.” I consider that totally stupid. If someone can do a job better than the guy you have in there, if it will improve your team, then you have no choice. Get the guy up to the big leagues, make the trade, whatever. Make your team better and more efficient no matter what.

While ESPN did not cover much of the sabermetric analysis that goes into the decision making its quite obvious they use some. Leading up to the 2008 draft many prominent members on the Rays front office (most notable Friedman) wanted to select Buster Posey, a successful college slugger who by most sabermetric measures was one of the two best players in the draft (along with Pedro Alvarez of Vanderbilt). Though the fact that the scouts won out in the end and selected a high school shortstop by the name of Tim Beckham shows that the Rays aren’t totally Moneyball yet, the fact that they were close to picking Posey shows they are headed in that direction. The Rays could be the next Athletics, the next great analytical franchise in baseball.

Resurgence continues for Konerko

When the White Sox acquired Ken Griffey Jr. from the Reds at the trade deadline everyone though it would hurt Paul Konerko even further than he had already hurt himself. Since then however he has been in the lineup almost everyone game and producing at a level not seen since 2006. Is his August productions real, or is it just a fluky set of numbers based on a small sample size? Lets take a look.

Konerko’s 2008 has been very up and down. Although he has made contact with the ball around 80% of the time all season with only minor variations, his OPS by month (.796, .538, .800, .537, 1.04) has been so up and down it has effected his entire performance. His LD% (13%, 21%, 30%, 21%, 33%) has also been extremely up and down in direct correlation with his OPS (with the exception of April where he was hitting the ball on the ground a lot and seems to have benefited from and inflated OPS). This has lead to a wildly varying xBA by month (.265, .226, .331, .221, .347).

What do these numbers mean? Its pretty simple. He has the upside to be very good however his inconsistency means you can’t depend on him long term. I would recommend picking him up for the short term however as he can single handedly move you up in a few categories if he’s hitting up to his level.

Minor League Weekly – Kila Ka’aihue

Last week I detailed the season that one of the most underrated minor league pitchers is having. This week I’m going to look at one of the most under the radar hitters in the minor leagues; Royals first basemen Kila Ka’aihue. How do I know he is under the radar? Well because if I Google his name I get a little under 12,000 hits. If I Google my name I get around 20,000. That’s pretty under the radar. He wasn’t even listed in the Royals top 30 prospects at the beginning of the year! That’s also pretty under the radar.

Ka’aihue, a native Hawaiian, was drafted in the 15th round of the 2002 major league baseball draft. After being draft Ka’aihue spent three years between rookie ball and advanced A ball where he had limited success. His power was evident, however his ability to get on base via the walk were not. Ka’aihue had far more strikeouts than walks from 2002-2005. In 2006 Ka’aihue went to AA were he struggled with a .603 OPS and .67 BB/K ratio.

The next season (2007) Ka’aihue went back to A+ where he drastically improved to a .780 OPS and .93 BB/K ratio. After a mid season promotion to AA he continued to improve with a .806 OPS and 1 more walk than strikeout. He looked poised for a breakout, however because it had taken him so many years to get to this point he was not recognized as a big time prospect.

Then 2008 happened. Ka’aihue started the year at AA and just exploded. With the AA Naturals he posted a .314 BA, .463 OBP, .624 SLG, 1.087 OPS, and 1.95 BB/K ratio (about twice as many!) He also had 26 home runs and 83 runs created in 287 AB’s. Ka’aihue made the Texas League all star team and this August got a promotion to AAA. He has been off the charts since then with a 1.146 OPS, 7 home runs, and 18 runs created in only 17 games. J.J. Picollo, the Royals director of scouting and development, said of Ka’aihue: “From an offensive standpoint, I don’t think there’s a player having that type of year.”

This guy is a legitimate fantasy option, possibly as early as this September. The problem is the Royals history with power hitting first basemen, as well as a logjam at the position. With Ross Gload and Billy Butler currently at the major league level, and Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer, the Royals last two early first round picks also at the position, Ka’aihue have to move to the outfield. He probably can. The first basemen is big – 6’3, 230 pounds – however he does have decent range and a great arm (he was clocked in the mid 90’s as a senior in high school) so he should be able to succeed there. If you are in a keeper league of any kind, especially a dynasty league or one with minor league rosters, get this guy on your team. I did, and I’m feeling confident he will be an impact bat at the major league level if not this September then next spring.

Stat glossary up!

The stat glossary is up and is currently limited to offense. Ill get the pitching methods up ASAP.

AL News & Notes

Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Daniel Cabrera was looked at by a team orthopedist on Monday and will get an MRI on his pitching elbow. Cabrera’s velocity has dropped into the low 90’s lately and his health has been in question after a few poor starts. After last nights game, Cabrera made some comments about how he could be hurt, causing the team to send him to the doctor. If he has been injured all year, it may explain why his K rate has suffered and his velocity has gone down.  If so, and if he gets it fixed, along with his improved BB rate, he could have some pretty good upside.

Boston Red Sox third basemen Mike Lowell is expected to be activated from the disabled list on Tuesday. After an early start to this season, Lowell has struggled with an OBP under .350 and an OPS+ just over 100. He should go back into your lineup unless you have a better option (which you probably do..)

The Chicago White Sox have activated Joe Crede from the 15 day DL and recalled right handed pitcher Lance Broadway. Crede has been pretty decent with 17 home runs and a .474 SLG, however his OBP and BA suffered after a great start to the season. He is a decent option in any league. Lance Broadway has a 1.69 ERA in 16 major league innings. The 25 year old former first round pick has dominated at AAA, lowering his walk rate while keeping up a decent strikeout rate. If he ends up getting a start he is a definite option in most formats.

Detroit Tigers infielder Carlos Guillen left Monday nights game with back spasms and is listed as day-to-day. Guillen has had back issues all year, having missed a 3 games a couple of weeks ago. Ryan Rayburn replaced Guillen Monday and might take over if anything long term were to come of this.

Los Angeles Angels outfielder Garret Anderson’s knee injury is not serious and he could be in the lineup as early as Tuesday. Outfielder Vladimir Guerrero was also out of the lineup however he was just getting a routine day off. Outfielder Reggie Willits is expected to be activated from the DL on Tuesday and should get some playing time off the bench. He doenst however seem to have much fantasy value.

The Seatle Mariners have option reliever Mark Lowe to AAA. Lowe has struggled tremendously this season posting a tRA over 5 and a K/BB rate of 46/31. Lowe isn’t even an option in deep holds leagues.

Tampa Bay Rays reliever Troy Percival played catch for the first time on Monday and plans to come off the DL as scheduled on Saturday. Rotowire speculates that the Rays will wait an extra day to activate Percival as at that time rosters will have expanded to 40. Percival will regain the closers role and should have a lot of value the last month of the season.

The Texas Rangers called up outfielder Nelson Cruz from AAA on Monday. Cruz has absolutely destroyed AAA batting .342 with 37 home runs and a 1.124 OPS. Althoug he is a few years older than the average AAA player at 28, his stats are still very impresive. If he starts getting decent playing time I would pick him up and start him.

9 year old kid and his team kicked out of youth baseball for being “too good”

A Connecticut 9 year old, Jericho Scott, was told last week he could not pitch in his youth baseball league because he threw “to hard” topping out around 40 MPH (with enough control that he hasn’t hit anyone this year). The league felt that facing this kind of speed was “frightening” for youth league players. “There are a lot of beginners. This is not a high-powered league. This is a developmental league whose main purpose is to promote the sport,” said league attorney Peter Noble.

When Scott took the mound last week anyway, the opposing team was “forced” to forfeit the game. Then, league officials say, Scott’s mother began threatening the league, vowing to get it shut down, and eventually called the police. Scott’s team was then disbanded and the players were placed on other rosters.

Scott’s parents believe the boy is being targeted because he turned down an invitation to join the league administrator’s team. “The whole objective in life is to find something you’re good at and stick with it. I’d rather he spend all his time on the baseball field than idolizing someone standing on the street corner,” said Jericho’s mother Nicole Scott.

The fact is Scott should have pitched in another league, something the developmental league says they suggested to his parents. “I have never seen behavior of a parent like the behavior Jericho’s mother exhibited Wednesday night,” said Peter Noble.

While this does not appear to have any fantasy baseball relevance I find the story interesting and a potentially helpful bit of information in developing major league equivalent statistics for younger and younger levels of play. Keep this guy on the radar in your deeper keeper leagues.

(All quotes from the Associated Press, New Haven, CT)

Eddie Guardado traded to Twins

** UPDATE - It’s official. Frank Francisco has been named the Rangers new closer. **

The Minnesota Twins have acquired “Every Day” Eddie Guardado from the Texas Rangers for minor league right handed pitcher Mark Hamburger. Guardado pitched for the Twins for a decade, closing from 2001 to 2003. He has been closing out games for the Rangers this year and will probably set up for Joe Nathon with Minnesota. Although he doesn’t have the kind of strikeout numbers you look for in a late inning reliever, he is a good option in holds leagues with his 3.98 tRA and only 3 home runs in 49 innings. The biggest question though is who is going to close in Texas.

The first, and best, choice is probably Frank Francisco. With 11.2 K/9, 3 times as many strikeouts as walks, and a tRA of 3.50, this trade must have been pretty easy for the Rangers to make. I would suggest picking him up in any league where you might need another reliever as even if he doesn’t close at first, he’s the only option I see in their bullpen holding the job long term.

In keeper leagues the question becomes, when CJ Wilson comes back next season does he get his job back? Francisco has the obvious strikeout upside to take the job and run with it and if he does that I really believe he could open 2009 as the Rangers closer.

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